American League Outfield Tiered Rankings Update

There is still over 80% of the 2013 baseball season yet to be played. With that friendly reminder in hand, this is the 2013 AL OF rankings update. We’ll be ranking the outfielders in descending order in tiers, and to have some fun with it, we’ll be using Windows operating systems to separate the different tiers.

Windows XP
Mike Trout
Yoenis Cespedes

The boost in value from Yoenis Cespedes is driven by the rest of the Oakland Athletics offense. As a team, the A’s have the fourth highest on-base percentage and are tied for the second best wRC+. Their .294 team BABIP isn’t considerably out of line and they have the highest walk rate. After leading the league in strikeouts and strikeout rate, the A’s have struck out fewer than 20 teams thus far. With Cespedes hitting cleanup, there should be a very real boost in his RBI chances, which of course ideally leads to more RBIs. Mike Trout is Mike Trout. I’m not concerned.

Windows 7
Jose Bautista
Adam Jones
Alex Gordon
Jacoby Ellsbury
Austin Jackson

Jacoby Ellsbury leads the league in stolen bases and is in the top 10 in the AL in runs scored. He has 10 extra-base hits and most importantly, he is healthy. His OBP is only mediocre for a leadoff hitter, but when he gets on he runs and tends to score. As long as he stays on the field, he is a great player. I under estimated him coming back from injury. Also seeing a boost in his value is Austin Jackson. The leadoff hitter for the Detroit Tigers has been running more — five steals already — and hasn’t been caught stealing yet. He currently leads all of baseball in runs scored and has a chance to do so all year.

Windows 8
Chris Davis
Alex Rios
Josh Hamilton
Melky Cabrera
Michael Bourn
Nelson Cruz
Nick Swisher
Curtis Granderson
Desmond Jennings

Why jump Curtis Granderson over Desmond Jennings when Granderson hasn’t even played this season yet? I harbor concerns regarding Jennings every posting a decent batting average at the major league level. The steals will be there and so will the runs scored, but his batting average holds him back. Granderson is no .300 hitter himself, his power — assuming the injury doesn’t hurt his power, something I am also concerned about — makes all the difference here. Steals tied to a crummy batting average can be found on the waiver wire. Home runs and RBIs can’t.

Windows 98
Shane Victorino
Torii Hunter
Josh Reddick
Mark Trumbo
Josh Willingham
Brett Gardner
Coco Crisp
Michael Morse
Peter Bourjos

I over-estimated the effect of moving to Safeco on Micheal Morse’s power, at least in the early going. With eight home runs already, his initial ranking in the sixth tier looks just plain silly at this point. Gardner jumps above Crisp based on Gardner being healthy, having a similar skill set to Crisp, and being four years younger. With a hamstring issue already hampering Crisp, and given that Crisp has never played in 150 games in a season and Gardner has done it twice, I feel more comfortably going forward with Gardner.

Windows 95
Chris Carter
Chris Young
Ichiro Suzuki
Lorenzo Cain
Alejandro De Aza
Nick Markakis
Emilio Bonifacio
Adam Dunn
David Murphy
Vernon Wells

I’m a believer in Chris Carter. but his lineup and his own batting average aren’t doing him any favors. That being said, a 30 home run season (which I think we’ll see from Carter this year) is too hard to pass up. He gets a nice 10 point bump, almost to the top 25. Once Chris Young‘s BABIP figures itself out, he’ll make a very good deep league outfielder. With four home runs and five steals already, Young should contribute regularly in four categories, the missing category being batting average. Get on board the Lorenzo Cain train before it hurts itself trying to leave the station. As for Adam Dunn, he continues to struggle and look lost, then he’ll smack a dinger in his next plate appearance. Analysis!

Windows 2000
Jonny Gomes
Seth Smith
Ryan Doumit
Drew Stubbs
Michael Saunders
Matt Joyce
Oswaldo Arcia
Dayan Viciedo

Here we have platoon players, people who should be platoon players, part timers and rookies. They all bring something to the table, but take off just as much as they bring. Stubbs will get you steals but at the cost of RBIs and average. Gomes, Smith, and Joyce are platoon players who are solid, but not spectacular at anything and their part-time status hurts their offensive ceiling. I actually do like Saunders and now that he is back in action, a 15-15 season is decent enough in deep leagues.

Windows ME
Trevor Plouffe
Justin Maxwell
Aaron Hicks
Colby Rasmus
Daniel Nava
Leonys Martin
Nolan Reimold
Wil Myers

If any of these guys are in your s tarting lineup, I would humbly suggest making some trades to upgrade your outfield. There are some players who have some upside, but if you’re trotting these guys out on a regular basis, make some moves to improve your team.

Windows Vista
No one. Because Vista was the worst.




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81 Responses to “American League Outfield Tiered Rankings Update”

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  1. GB says:

    You forgot Nate McLouth, who should at least be in the WIndows 95 tier, even with an inflated BABIP, His numbers are not a mirage, as he is a different hitter/fantasy player this year. Some of this was detailed in Eno’s great article yesterday, but here are some cogent points:
    1. His LD-rate is up, lending to the idea that his BABIP is not completely crazy
    2. His BB-rate is way up
    3. His K-rate is way down (he has a 15/9 BB/K ratio, which is crazy)
    4. He’s attempting steals at a much higher rate, and has been very successful (as he has been throughout his career)
    5. They’re sitting him against Lefties, against whom he’s always struggled. To some extent, this realistically inflates his overall numbers

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    • David Wiers says:

      In a deeper mixed league I can see McLouths value, but I disagree with Eno on his value going forward. Between his 100 extra points of BABIP that McLouth has as well as his past 3000 plate appearances of data, I’m not a huge fan.

      McLouth could fit in with the Windows 2000 tier if you squint hard enough, but I didn’t forget about him. Him not being listed was intentional.

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      • Jason says:

        To leave McLouth off intentionally is just wrong and hard headed. He must of burned you a few years back. Just the basic argument puts him ahead of everyone in ME. Reminds me of the days when I would read ESPN.
        Also, to say “Mike trout is Mike trout” means what exactly? He will repeat or come close to the one full season he has under his belt. I dont think he is terrible by no means but with such a small track record of yearly success it is not so easy to expect a tier one performance. There should be just little cause for concern, no??

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      • David Wiers says:

        You can use the past 300 PA’s to evaluate McLouth and Trout, that is your right. I’ll use the past 3000 on McLouth.

        As for Trout, to say he is Trout should imply that he is one of the best players on the face of the earth right now. That should be implied, but I guess some people need it to be explicitly stated. Trout didn’t average 1:1 or 1:2 in drafts for no reason.

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      • Clifford says:

        I hear the argument against McLouth, but honestly, you would rather have Bonifacio over him? Personally, id take McLouth over just about everyone in the Windows 95 outside of Markakis maybe and de Aza and Cain…he’s likely going to be atop the Orioles order all season, so he should rack up healthy run and SB totals…and yes, he had several awful years, but if you look at the last year he was given a chance to play full time(2009), in only 129 games, he hit .256 with 86 runs, 20 HR, 70 RBI, and 19 SB…that would give him 162 game-pace of 108 runs, 25 HR, 88 RBI, and 24 SB….and its not like we haven’t seen guys change teams like that and revitalize their careers…Ichiro, Beltran, Michael Young(so far this year at least), Juan Pierre(last year w/ Phils), Alex Rios, Cody Ross, Carl Crawford(so far this year at least), etc.

        I just don’t see how/why you would want guys like Johnny Gomes(hitting .195 and in strict platoon), Bonifacio(overall suckiness), etc etc over McLouth? He’s already got 22 runs scored and 8 SB…I know its a SSS, but since joining the Orioles last year, hes got 287 ABs, and has posted .289, 57 runs, 19 doubles, 9 HR, and 20 SB. Ill take that over Mr Gomes or Mr. Bonifacio and their sub-Mendoza line averages any day.

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      • wily mo says:

        mclouth’s past 3000 PA of data include a season where he played a major role in winning me a fantasy championship, so, i’m not sure exactly what you’re talking about. sure he’s had a dry spell the past few years but there’s real ability in there and he’s showing it right now. you’re hilariously wrong about this

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      • wily mo says:

        sorry, can’t leave this alone.

        in 2008, over a full season, nate mclouth hit .276/.356/.497 with 46 doubles, 26 homers and 23 steals. he scored 113 runs, and even had 94 RBI if you’re into that kind of thing. the next year he fell off some but still went 20/19 with a 352 OBP. then he went into the desert. but he’s only 31 years old and is currently playing like the stud version again.

        don’t get me wrong, i can certainly see advising *a degree* of caution. but you are insisting on ranking him below jonny gomes, who’s a weak-side platoon, trevor plouffe, whose track record is less explicable than mclouth’s and is in the process of losing his starting job, and nolan reimold, who is sorta mclouth’s backup, has never really proven anything at all and isn’t playing because he’s been hurt since the last time mclouth was good. who do you think you’re even kidding with this

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      • Matt says:

        ….. so if you use McLouth’s 3000 previous plate appearances, you get a line that puts him squarely in the Windows 2000 tier.

        His ZiPS ROS puts him in this tier as well.

        I don’t get it.

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      • S Arora says:

        McLouth has had some very nice seasons. 20/20 types. He was good in BAL last year too. He’s worthy to be in the mid tiers.
        Also Desmond Jennings should not be last in that tier. He’ll be league average in BA with a 15/35 line. Very useful.

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      • ElToroStrikesAgain says:

        Worst case scenario? Walks, steals, runs. Best case? Sprinkle in some pop, average and ribbies. That’s a pretty good downside.

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  2. soamx says:

    I wish there was a separate tiered rankings for linear weights/points leagues where OBP matter significantly and SBs and avg aren’t as important. I could be way off base here and I’m also not a good enough writer to convey what I feel I’m trying to say here. Also I’m not really basing it on anything but my own personal gut feeling but I feel like fangraphs readers are saber minded people who are probably involved in leagues with saber minded scoring systems. The days of worrying about batting average are gone, or should be. Real teams aren’t worrying about things like RBI’s anymore. I think the fantasy baseball experience is beginning to follow suit, and it probably is an inconvenience for the writers of this site who would normally never pay attention to wins, ERA, Avg/RBIs to continue to concern themselves with antiquated scoring systems and the information is becoming less and less useful to the target audience.
    again, I could be totally wrong, maybe the espn/yahoo 5×5 readership far outweighs the other side but honestly, I don’t see how a baseball fan can know things like W-L, RBIs don’t accurately measure performance but are happy to play in leagues where those are the deciding factors.

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    • David Wiers says:

      Well, expert leagues like Tout Wars and LABR still use the standard 5×5 format, and it is called 5×5 for a reason. To play those settings in fantasy is by no means an endorsement of faith in wins and RBI’s.

      There are Ottoneu leagues that use a SABR points system (I happen to be in one, and it is a ton of fun) and there are many ways of editing league settings in CBS, Yahoo!, and ESPN.

      Just because my fantasy team is short on RBIs doesn’t mean that I don’t care about my favorite real team, the Oakland A’s, and their FIP or wRC+.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Wobatus says:

        I play in a league that’s spun off from and modified from an old stats, inc. league (the winner one year got to go to a spring training game with Bill James back in the early ’90s).

        It’s a points league and wins and losses do have points associated with them, but it’s not as heavily weighted as overall effective pitching, although it isn’t really a sabr league:

        Hitters:
        Hit 2.5 points
        At bats (-0.5) points
        Walk 1.5 points
        Double 1 point
        Triple 2 points
        Home Run 3 points
        Run 1 point
        RBIs 1 point (No points for RBIs in excess of the number of total runs scored)
        Hit by pitch 1.5 points
        Stolen Base 2 points
        Caught stealing (-2) points
        Double play 1.5 points for 3B, 1 point for all others but 1B
        Error (-2) points
        Outfield assist 2 points
        Catcher throws out runner 2 points
        Catcher win 1 point (complete game & team wins)

        Pitchers:
        Appearance 1 point
        Out recorded 1 point
        Strikeout 0.5 points
        Walk (-1) point
        Hit by Pitch (-1) point
        Hit (-1) point
        Earned Run (-2) points
        Unearned Run (-1) point
        Win 6 points
        Loss (-4) points for starters, (-5) for relievers.
        Save 6 points (No points for team saves in excess of wins)
        Hold 4 points
        Quality 6-innings 4 points (SP, 3 ER or less, and 6.0 to 7.2 innings) 4 points (SP, 4 ER or less, and 8+ innings)
        Quality 1-inning 1 point (RP, 0 ER, and 1 to 2.2 innings) 1 point (RP, 1 ER, and 3+ innings)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • soamx says:

        I hear you. I’m also in several ottoneu points leagues. What I don’t understand personally is the appeal of leagues that use traditional scoring to those who are saber savvy such as yourself.
        It’s a weird mentality to me where everyone in a league sits down and says yeah wins are meaningless but let’s use that to determine the best fantasy players anyway.

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      • David Wiers says:

        The irony isn’t lost on me either. If you set up a league where FIP, K%, wRC+ (instead of wOBA that doesn’t adjust for ballpark) is used, let me know. Seriously. I’d sign up for that in a heartbeat.

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  3. Micah says:

    “to have some fun with it, we’ll be using Windows operating systems”

    Possibly the only time that’s ever been written.

    (Oh hush Windows fans: I have no dog in this fight, but most will admit that if one were to write a list of positive qualities down and pick an OS for each, Windows ain’t getting “fun”.)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. ajax says:

    Reddick has been pretty pathetic so far, but it seems like you still have confidence that he’ll turn it around. Explain yourself. Please.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • David Wiers says:

      A BABIP that is 100 points below his career average, five steals already, and a lowered Swing%. I’d worry about his pop up rate, but it is too soon to judge that yet.

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  5. John says:

    Jeff Francoeur? Or is he worse than the worst? is he DOS?

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    • David Wiers says:

      The guy who buys A’s fan pizza? I’d pass on him in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m talking 14-team AL-only.

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      • mockcarr says:

        That’s a little silly. Every starting OF is going to be on a roster even in a 12 team AL-only league. You have to find 60 outfielders from 15 teams! You’d be advocating leaving a DL guy or the fifth OF on there instead basically, and the guy only really hurts BA.

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  6. Jared Fluth says:

    I second the commentator pointing out the McLouth omission.

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  7. Jaker says:

    Trumbo should be higher.

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    • David Wiers says:

      It’s a matter of what I think he’ll do for the rest of the season. I don’t see Trumbo hitting anywhere near .300 the rest of the way. I won’t deny his power, that is why he is the 20th best AL OF. I think that’s fair.

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  8. Jonathan says:

    Are you freaking kidding me? Windows 2000 below 95, 98, AND 8? Windows 2000 was XP before there was an XP.

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. grovebost1 says:

    Hello,

    Melky Cabrera? he of the .041 ISO, 50% ground ball rate and career worst BB/K? If i remember correctly ISO should already stabilize around this point, time to sell low?

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    • David Wiers says:

      Slow starts happen. I’m still a believer. His approach is still intact, as his contact rate is in line, his walk rate is fine, and his K% has climbed just a hair. His batted ball profile is identical to his past years, so I’m not worried.

      It hasn’t even been 30 games yet.

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    • Jon L. says:

      I share this thought. Melky is hitting just the way he used to in New York.

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  10. Stefan says:

    I’d switch Chris Young and M Saunders. Young will only play full time if there are injuries and he really can only hit lefties. I think he and Reddick platoon. Saunders has the higher upside and could breakout with a 25/20, 20/25 type of year.

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    • David Wiers says:

      There are always injuries. Cespedes is somewhat fragile, Crisp definitely is, and the A’s like to platoon their players.

      I don’t disagree that Saunders has upside, but his upside is what Young has already accomplished.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Dan says:

    Andy Dirks?

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    • David Wiers says:

      His upside is very limited. An optimist would say 10-10 with 60 runs and a middling average. In a position as deep as outfield, that just doesn’t cut it.

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  12. ray6072 says:

    No Michael Brantley? Am I blind, or is he vista?

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    • David Wiers says:

      He’s on the cusp. For standard 12-team leagues I wouldn’t own him. I would put him last in ME. He doesn’t have the power or speed to be totally relevant.

      He is a younger David DeJesus.

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      • ray6072 says:

        He’s actually decently ownable in points leagues. Not great, but better than a lot of the options above him. Understand that isn’t what this list is for though.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • David Wiers says:

        I’ll keep that in mind for next month. I’m always happy to add people or to see where I was wrong. Well, maybe not happy to see where I was wrong, but you know what I mean. I’m not intransigent on anything.

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  13. Ryan says:

    Michael Brantley has got to be on this list.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I regularly ranked him last year but the more I thought of it, I see nothing but an empty average there. Sure, it is nice, but I wouldn’t own him in a standard mixed league. There are a lot better OF options than Brantley.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Bob says:

    What about Rajai Davis? Steals and increasing prominence, more so than Bonifacio, in Jays lineup.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • David Wiers says:

      He is fringe-ownable. I personally like Davis for his legs alone — not mention his socks — but I dropped him in a league so I could pick up Chris Young.

      Davis just doesn’t do enough to warrant a roster spot in standard leagues for me. He is a great waiver wire pick up, but I wouldn’t want him to be one of my regular OFers.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Adam says:

    Carlos Gomez?

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  16. Cybo says:

    Every hardware geek knows win7 is the best. >2GB of usable memory FTW!

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  17. SB says:

    Say Wil Myers was called up today. Where would he slot in?

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    • David Wiers says:

      I was waiting for this question! He dropped off of my rankings this month because we probably won’t see him for awhile.

      But to answer your question, I’d have him around Chris Carter to MArkakis. Valuable, worth owning in mixed leagues, but obviously a big question mark.

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      • SB says:

        Yeah, that seems about right. Although I’m a bigger fan of Markakis than you. Maybe it’s because I play in an OBP league, but I’d bump him up to the Windows 98 tier and I’d personally rather own him than Nelson Cruz or Melky. My problem with Melky is that it seems impossible to project him now that he’s (supposedly) off PED. Last year kind of has to be thrown out to some extent. It’s clearly the outlier in his career to this date, and we know he had “help”.

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  18. J-Rod says:

    Nate “MacLouth” omitted from the Windows OS rankings… Coincidence or conspiracy??

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  19. Lyrok says:

    Chris Young is way too high. I am in a very deep league and ended up dropping him because he is basically on the wrong side of a platoon. He needs Cespedes, Crisp, or Reddick to be injured. IMO, he is a 4th OF that will play against LHP and when one of the other 3 is injured. He won’t take RHP at bats away from Seth Smith.

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    • wily mo says:

      they do have a lot of outfielders, but so far “when one of the other 3 is injured” has been pretty much all the time. as of today he’s got more PA than reddick, you know. if you’re dropping him in a “very deep” league i gotta wonder who for

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. Andy E says:

    in a 12 team keeper league should i trade hanley ramirez and adam laroche for anthony rizzo and shelby miller? i have tulo heaadley and arenado also, and want more pitching

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. LRG says:

    Cespedes is a top tier AL OF?? On the same tier as Mike Trout?? The guy who had one of the greatest seasons EVER!?!?!? This is garbage. Dont need to read anything else after seeing that.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. pryguy says:

    Any faith in Chris Parmelee to figure it out at some point this season?

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  23. cs3 says:

    Its been said many times before, but split rankings are pretty useless for anyone who plays in mixed leagues, and that is the vast majority of fangraph’s audience.

    I know the answer is always “too much work for one person” but it makes way more sense to split up the player pool into different posts, rather than into different leagues (and thereby different rankings altogether).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. UncleJoe says:

    I would like to see more defense of the Chris Carter ranking. In all three of my leagues he is available, while many of the guys ranked below him are not. To me the guy looks to be a liability in every category but HRs. I am talking about a 10, 14, and 15 team mixed 5×5. Plus, I understand there are sme rumblings about his playing time being in jeopardy. And then there is the K rate. Can anyone one explain why I would want to roster this guy in a daily league instead of the likes of C. Young, Markakis, Joyce, or Seth Smith?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Matt Bertelli says:

    Best ranking system yet.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Meta World Peace says:

    Justify Melky Steroid Cabrera is up there now that hes off the drugs and is back to his form in 2010?
    And while stanton just injured himself again, he had been hitting well the past week or so. Even with almost a full month missing, given his performance history, wouldn’t he still go on a tear when he comes back and be very relevant to the list somewhere?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Ross says:

    So we finished the posts about Nate Mclouth? Come on now. Vote for Mcclouth get him in your Tiers!!!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. Detroit Michael says:

    Windows 8 is the worst. Can’t find a darned thing after Microsoft spent two decades training us where to look for stuff.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • David Wiers says:

      I was skeptical on Win8, but with the classic shell it is actually really nice.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Disagreements! says:

        I agree about your windows 8 comment, but disagree about you leaving out McLouth.

        Especially in an AL only tier, at-bats and order placement for counting stats have value. Plus all of his current underlining stats say he can potentially have a similar season to his 2008. Of course, that is probably on the hopeful side, but 255-10-15 line with a decent obp and solid counting stats isn’t improbable for the rest of the season. And when you include the upside for more, that plays in AL only leagues.

        I understand if you simply forgot to put him in, but to purposely ignore him at this point in the season, seems to hurt the list. He should at least make the list in one of the lower tiers.

        I’d say he should be inserted in the higher part of the Windows 2000 list, or the very bottom portion of the Windows 95 list.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Gruf22 says:

    Where are Choo?

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  30. Zonis says:

    I do think this list is kind of off. I mean, how do you have Jonny Gomes, Seth Smith and Michael Saunders as the best OF in the AL? That seems like kind of a stretch.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. Hal says:

    On 4/22 Dunn was at 101/151/246 with only three walks. On 4/23 he walked three times in one game and since then (incl 4/23) he’s gone 269/441/654. It’s only a week but it certainly appears he’s abandoned his horrendously abominable new approach at the plate. Can anyone who has watched any White Sox games confirm or deny this?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  32. Big Knockers says:

    Whoa! Melky Cabrera needs to be taken down a peg or two. He has no business being in a tier higher than Mark Trumbo. I’d even argue that Lorenzo Cain is more valuable than Melky.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  33. Ned Shakeshaft says:

    Franklin Gutierrez = Windows Vista

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  34. Daniel Stern says:

    Why so much hate on Nava? Not that he’s proved himself, but he seems like he’s got a hell of a lot more upside than most of the guys in his or the next tier.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  35. Chief Keef says:

    Josh Reddick has been a terrible hitter since last year’s All Star break. His approach is terrible and he’s been getting soundly destroyed for over 400 at bats now, he’s Jeff Francouer Jr.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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