American League Outfielder Rankings: Post-Trade Deadline
With the trade deadline firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to quantify the fantasy fallout from all the dealing and wheeling, goings and comings, thither and hither. Strike that, reverse it. In other words: Rankings!
Looking for the previous AL OF rankings? Look no further.
TIER 1
Jose Bautista
Joey Bats has been Joey Blahs since the All-Star break (.222/.363/.381), but for what he did over the first three-plus months, Bautista gets to maintain a tier all to himself. Note: The top three guys in the next tier were closer than you think to joining him.
TIER 2
Curtis Granderson
Jacoby Ellsbury
Josh Hamilton
Nelson Cruz
Carlos Quentin
Carl Crawford
You really can’t complain if you’ve owned have any of the first five guys as your top outfielder in 2011, and they’re all in line to perform as elites from now until the end of the season. Granderson and Ellsbury have done everything all year long, while Hamilton and Cruz have been limited only by trips to the DL, something the previously injury-prone Quentin, who has been streaky but productive, has avoided this year. Luckily for AL-only owners, the White Sox didn’t ship him to Atlanta at the deadline after all. … Crawford is off to a roaring .406/.424/.688 start in August, proving there’s something in the tank — and just enough time to (partially) make up for what has been an otherwise forgettable first year in Boston.
TIER 3
Ben Zobrist
Adam Jones
Alex Gordon
Nick Swisher
Michael Cuddyer
Brennan Boesch
B.J. Upton
Save for Upton, who’s dropped to the bottom of this batch, each of the above has been rock solid for the past two months. And even B.J., despite his .230-hitting ways, will continue to do his speed-power thing and score you a handful more homers and swipes before the year is out. Among the rest? You won’t find many weaknesses, as they’re all hitting for solid-to-great averages, smacking homers, knocking in runs and even contributing something on the bases (well, not Swisher). If you’ve got more than one of these fellas in your lineup, you’ve done — and will continue to do — fine.
TIER 4
Desmond Jennings
Josh Willingham
Brett Gardner
Melky Cabrera
Matt Joyce
Jeff Francoeur
Torii Hunter
Colby Rasmus
Jason Kubel
Johnny Damon
Coco Crisp
Vernon Wells
Nick Markakis
Ichiro Suzuki
Josh Reddick
Rajai Davis
Michael Brantley
Bobby Abreu
If you haven’t been impressed by Jennings (.328/.419/.594 with 9 extra-base hits and 7 SBs), then you haven’t been paying attention during the dog days of fantasy baseball. Almost makes you think the Rays might’ve had a chance, if only they’d brought him up three months ago. Really, I was tempted to include him in Tier 3. … Rasmus is another newcomer, but one who joins us from the NL. His stats are disappointing across the board, except for his runs total (65), which will ufortunately join the rest of his digits in the lacking column if the Jays continue to bat him in the fifth or sixth (where he’s slotted in the past few games), rather than second (where he started out with them). … I’m calling Reddick a true win for Mining the Minors, as I alerted readers to him back in April. Although, to be honest, I didn’t think he’d hit .331.
TIER 5
Shin-Soo Choo
Ryan Raburn
Eric Thames
Denard Span
Austin Jackson
Alex Rios
Grady Sizemore
Delmon Young
Peter Bourjos
Juan Pierre
Ben Revere
Choo is already on a rehab assignment from his broken left thumb, and he could return in a week or so. If he’s just sitting on waivers, he’s probably worth an add-and-stash in most leagues, provided you’ve got the DL space. Yes, his season was going miserably, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contribute to your final push over the last six weeks. … All of a sudden, the Twins outfield is chock full, what with Kubel, Span and Young returning from injuries, and Revere still in the mix. I’d expect Kubel to get regular run because he’s having the best season, and Span is too important to the top of the order to sit him much, but Revere will get any starts in center when Span — who suffered a concussion that kept him out for two months — needs a day off. Of course, things will only get murkier when (if?) Justin Morneau makes it back and Cuddyer moves back to the outfield from first base.
TIER 6
Endy Chavez
Mike Carp
Casper Wells
Andy Dirks
Brent Lillibridge
Sean Rodriguez
David Murphy
Trayvon Robinson
Alejandro De Aza
Ezequiel Carrera
Nolan Reimold
David DeJesus
Conor Jackson
Kosuke Fukudome
Magglio Ordonez
Ryan Sweeney
Franklin Gutierrez
Sam Fuld
Justin Ruggiano
Andruw Jones
Travis Snider
J.D. Drew
Save for DeJesus and Gutierrez, no one in this tier is a full-time regular — and it’s for good reason. So if you’re deploying any of these guys more often than never, make sure you have a reason. Like using Carp for his home run potential, or Carrera to sneak a few steals, or Lillibridge because he can do a bit of both. And when in doubt, go with upside. Mulling the ridiculousness of picking up Murphy or Ordonez? Screw ‘em both and go with the unknown in Trayvon instead. … Also worth pointing out: Snider was sent to Triple-A — I know, that never happens — but I have a feeling he’ll be back before the year is out. But this is just another lost year for the former Jays’ top prospect.
BONUS TIER
Mark Trumbo
Adam Lind
Howie Kendrick
Hideki Matsui
Mitch Moreland
Vladimir Guerrero
While Lind has slumped miserably (.206 BA, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs) since July 1, Trumbo has been one of the best power producers around (.267, 9, 28), and the rook has been getting better, so those two OF-eligible 1Bs switch spots. … Matsui looked cooked for the first three months, then he smoked the ball in July and August (.380 BA, 5 HRs, 26 RBIs). He’ll play as an OF4/5 in deep mixed. … I like what Moreland brings to the table, with his mix of pop (13 HRs) and a decent walk rate (8.6%), but the Rangers still like to sit him more than enough to prevent him from being as productive as he should be in that lineup and in that park. Guy only has 36 RBIs.
DROPPED OUT
Luke Scott
Corey Patterson
Felix Pie
Travis Buck
Julio Borbon
Jack Cust
All of these guys were either A) traded out of the AL (Patterson), B) injured for the year (Scott), C) released by their employer (Cust), D) demoted to the minors (Buck, Borbon) or E) Felix Pie.
PROSPECTS
Leonys Martin
Dayan Viciedo
Lorenzo Cain
Brandon Guyer
Michael Taylor
Chris Carter
Greg Halman
Carlos Peguero
Mike Trout
Martin (.311 BA, .844 OPS, 14 SBs since signing in May) is almost definitely getting a shot down the stretch. Look for him to hit centerfield in Texas before August is over, so the Rangers can have the option of putting him on the postseason roster. He could be a poor man’s Jennings. … The only thing keeping Viciedo (.299/.364/.485, 16 HRs) in the minors — he likely would’ve gotten the call instead of De Aza had he not been hurt at the time — is the White Sox’s continued reluctance to take away any real playing time from Pierre, Rios and Adam Dunn. … Still one of the game’s best prospects, the 20-year-old Trout, who came up from Double-A to fill in for Bourjos last month, was occasionally exciting, but more often than not (.161 BA in 14 games), the kid looked like, well, a fish out of water. (Ahem.)
Jason waited all month to write the “fish out of water” bit lol. Can you just remove Peguero and make him his own tier of DO NOT TOUCH. He’s brutal all around.
chri521: Thanks for actually reading all the way through to the very (bitter) end. Good to know someone’s out there!
Gardner is at 4.2WAR, putting him in Tier4 is a joke… right? Putting Carl “where’d my dome go” Crawford 2 tiers above him is the second part of the joke I assume…
Look, Tom (and everyone else who’s brought up Gardner in the rankings): I hear the “Why is Brett Gardner so low” arguments. Every. Single. Time. I get it. In fact, I jumped him toward the top of Tier 4 this time in part because of the overwhelming support, but more so because he’s now hitting leadoff for the Yanks. But I still just don’t see him being better than any of the OFs I’ve ranked ahead of him. He’s a runs/steals specialist who doesn’t hurt you in average, yet offers next to nothing in HRs and RBIs.
The WAR argument doesn’t hold any water because there’s no WAR category in fantasy baseball, and the stat itself factors in defense, which also isn’t a fantasy factor, and in Gardner’s case, a large portion of his WAR total is tied up in his elite D.
If you want to consider him a definitive OF2, go ahead. To me, he’s an OF3 who’s valuable primarily to owners in need of steals.
Baseball reference still has his oWAR at 1.6 to Crawfords 0.6
He is highly useful in any OBP league, he should score runs at an elite level for the rest of the season, and his rate of SB’s has jumped tremendously over the last month. It’s nearing the end of the roto season, and he fills very important needs for the stretch run. Certainly more than anyone in Tier 4, and most of the guys in Tier 3.
The methodology of these rankings seems to change every time they get posted. Sometimes its about the whole year, sometimes its about the last month, sometimes its some myth of production coming… make up your minds already!
I hear what you’re saying, Tom. I think I’m just more opposed to assigning too much value to SB-heavy guys than you (and maybe most owners). Something about the increase in steals and decrease in homers overall the past two seasons. But I’m certainly not going to begrudge you your opinion.
And I try to do my ranks with a “from-this-point-forward-but-while-at-least-acknowledging-the-recent-past” approach. Which is why I’ve kept Crawford as high as I have all season, I guess.
It’s still grossly overvaluing Crawford. Until he shows he’s the Carl Crawford of old for something more than eight days, he doesn’t belong in Tier 2.
Watching balls bounce out of his glove for the last few days has be wondering where his head is at.
I really just don’t think you’re getting it. Everyone in T3 is at or close to (minus Swisher and Boesh) double digit steals. All of them have 10+ HR, 50+ RBI 50+ R.
Gardner has 62 R, Zobrist, Boesch and Gordon have more than him, only Jones and Upton aren’t really close to that number. Gardner only has 28 RBI, everyone in T3 is close to double that if not better, his AVG isn’t elite and fits in nicely with some of the T3 hitters which is to say, it’s not any where near elite.
When all he does outside of that is steal and score but everyone else in T3 does at least three things (some of them four, *fist bump Zorilla*) then Gardner doesn’t deserve to be ranked in that tier. Yes, Gardner posts elite SB’s, but is the 11th worst RBI guy in all of MLB (remember this is fantasy baseball) and 26th worst in HR while his 62 R is ranked only 36th.
Being elite in one category in fantasy is not enough to move up into the more prestigious tiers.
When I see posts like yours I wonder if you didn’t accidentally think that this was still real baseball talk as opposed to fantasy baseball (green = RL baseball, brown = fantasy) in which we use standard metrics more often than not and the Ryan Howard’s of the world are deemed ‘studs’ and are top performers while guys like Gardner goes from drool worthy saber darling t middle of the pack situationally valuable types.
I don’t think you get it at all. Go google the term “going forward” and get back to me.
Gardner has not been leading off the entire season, so he has not been scoring runs at that rate. Now he is. So he’s contributing at an elite level in 2 categories and has a perfectly passable AVG/OBP. None of the guys in Tier3 do that. Not a single one.
Not everyone uses archaic stats like AVG in their fantasy leagues, this site should be accommodating all types of leagues, not just standard 5×5.
When I see posts like yours I wonder if you bothered to try to understand what I was saying, or if you just saw “Gardner should be higher” and went off on a rant.
Fact of the matter is that most leagues use or are based on the standard 5×5. Yes, many use OBP, OPS, but others TB, which would leave him tied with E5 in the AL, should we then discount those leagues too? And what of position eligibility? Gardner is at worst an OF, and at best a CF/LF, if you do not delineate the OF positions Gardner’s .745 OPS is weak.
In certain league setups, yes, you have a real case for Gardner to be moved up, however, just less than a week ago, Gardner was batting 9th. Can we really trust that he’ll stay at the top of the lineup?
Also, if you don’t play in a OBP league (or you’re in one of the leagues that I’m in that uses OPS) is two categories of elite to near elite production worth missing out on a guy like Zobrist? I hate getting guys like Gardner, because you get him and you think that you’re set in SB’s, the rest of your team should steal enough that you’ll take the category on most weeks and then what if he gets hurt? You’re screwed. But, if you took a guy like any in T3, your production isn’t hurt nearly as much because they all provide above average 3 category production but none so much that you’ll sink in the standings if they get hurt. Let’s also not forget that you could easily replace a guy like Gardner with Coco Crisp and not have to spend half as much to acquire him.
If you read any fantasy articles over at TBT they’ll say the same thing, all around productivity is much more desirable than one or two category production.
The meat and potatoes of the issue though is that you want these articles to be more tailored to your more advanced leagues and with your specific setup, yes, Gardner has more value. However, to do that would be terribly unfair to anyone playing a standard 5×5, a league using OPS or TB, leagues with non-delineated OF positions. Posting for standard 5×5′s though allows you, the reader, to make mental adjustments for how your league works while giving many more readers even more concrete rankings.
Also remember that these rankings are for people who maybe using completely different leagues than you (ESPN, Yahoo, etc) in which different rules apply still. Making these articles as broad as possible makes them more accessible. The article is fine if you accept it for what it is and quit trying to make it into your personal league rankings.
**If you read any fantasy articles over at TBT they’ll say the same thing, all around productivity is much more desirable than one or two category production.**
They do say that, at the beginning of the season. In August? Not so much.
I’m not trying to tailor the list to anything, Zobrist and Swisher should probably be up in 2, Crawford Gardner and Melky should probably all be in 3. I’m not asking him to put Gardner at the top of the list, he’s just very undervalued for the remainder of the season in Tier 4.
Well, if you take Bautista out from his lonely place in T1 or ignore him all together as he’s the Pujols of the AL OF, then the rankings are right about where you’d want them.
I see them as:
In a class by himself
The elite
All around studs
Every day guys (as in you should roster them everyday)
Injury risk/DL/One category performers
Irregular playing time
Who knows?
When you view them this way, maybe it helps a little more. Usually when I see 6 tiers I’m gunning for players in the top 3, however, the top 3 in these rankings are so thin that guys in the top 3.5 are really worth having with the guys in the bottom half of T4 won’t hurt you at all. In that sense then maybe T3 should be expanded upon, but I personally like Gardner where he is.
It makes sense to me to see him where he is, maybe because I tend to platoon guys like that in H2H leagues depending on the status of the R/SB categories with guys that may have some serious flaws but can produce in HR/RBI (I’m thinking this year’s incarnation of LoMo specifically, or Luke Scott before the injury) to help bolster me in areas of contention.
He’s great for what he does, but what he doesn’t do might hurt you. Which seems to be a proper balance if you look at T4 as above average to average fantasy OF’s. He’ll do much more good than harm, but in certain scenarios in H2H leagues you may be better off sitting him.
That’s just my opinion though. The only bones I can pick with your proposed changes (assuming you’re seeing bottom half of T3 the same as I see the top half of T4) is Crawford needs to prove to me that he can perform in Boston before I’d bump him up, and Melky doesn’t seem to be able to sustain this level of production (BABIP is high, BB’s way down), however, he may deserve a bump just because if he can, he’s worth it.
Have to give Tom credit where credit is due…
he got owned like a slave no fewer than 5 times in the comments, yet he still keeps popping in to claim the last word.
Resilience at its finest.
Or perhaps the word is “stubbornness”… I hate it when firefox auto-corrects
Chris, adjusting the tiers like that certainly does make it easier to swallow… I guess my biggest issue wasn’t directly related to which tier he was in, just the odd choice of players above him. I would definitely squeeze Gardner right under Zobrist and Swisher… and stash the rest of the “tier3″ guys below that.
I’ve been utilizing alot of the “value-based” methods of ranking players lately (such as baseballmonster, which has Gardner ranked 10th among OF’s by my settings over the last 2 months) and I find the guys with extreme amounts of SB’s and runs can be very valuable despite their lack of other production as long as they perform admirably in one of the rate stats (we use obp/slg).
Good stuff.
I guess cs3 is more comfortable not having an opinion, or being able to express it.
I really see what you’re getting at with Willingham and Jennings above him. Willingham is a two trick pony like Gardner, but his AVG will hurt you (though I suppose the lack of RBI could hurt you if you started Gardner). Jennings is a saber darling and a top ranked prospect, so I get why he’s hyped, but then remember not to buy into it.
I ran baseballmonster for my league’s settings (limited it to only AL though) and Gardner ranked 14th. It seems that there’s a difference in philosophy in that Rotographs’ writers (or at least Jason Catania) prefer HR hitters to speedsters while baseballmonster prefers guys who can perform at elite levels for one or two categories. I get why they would do that as one home run is a hit, a run, a HR, and at least one RBI, so they are more likely to contribute to four categories with one swing of the bat, and I get why BM would like Gardner better.
But if you’re already in a good place with R’s and SB’s, then adding Gardner would be pointless, but it always seems that a guy who can hit a ball over a wall has value no matter what your fantasy team’s composition is.
How come CarGo is never on this ranking list?
He’s signed with the Rockies until 2017?
Very nice of you to not flame poor Andrew.
Andrew – CarGo was not included in the Ubaldo deal to the AL. He remains comfortably in the thin-aired confines of Coors.
WHOOPS! AL Rankings!!
I’m on top of my game today, boys!
The Melky Cabrera link goes to Jason Kubel’s page.
Why was Justin Upton left out of these rankings?
Because B.J. is the Upton that plays outfield in the American League, which is the subject of this article.
And why was Eleanor Dapkus and Marnie Danhauserleft out of these rankings? We marvel at your intellectual lethargy, your incurable ingenuousness and your appalling lack of ordinary sense, you mountebank.
[And why doesn't Fangraphs color the hyperlink embedded in Eleanor & Marnie's name blue or orange or yellow?]
You sir, get the flame of the day.
Yes, it helps to be able to read.
It seems that the AL/NL OF rankings get posted with large gaps in between. Would it be possible to get them published closer together?
Also, the AL/NL OF rankings are developed by different persons using different ranks, so it is difficult for mixed leaguers to combine them in a reliable way.
Though I didn’t mention ML rankings, I’d love to see how they would look, I’d just like to have them come out closer to each other because I tend to have more NL OF’s.
Every time I see the AL ranking I foolishly think “oh! the NL rankings might be just around the corner, maybe they can shed some insight on my players’ trade values, etc”.
Actually, I’d love to see the rankings for AL and NL IF, OF, and SP’s come out around the same time. Some of the posts seem to be fewer and further between than others.
Dustin Ackley is an OF in Yahoo…
Better than being a Yahoo in the OF?
Quentin in the same tier as Ellsbury and Granderson?! That seems a little ridiculous to me. In a points league, Quentin has been mediocre at best, and I don’t see how he’s any better in a roto league.
Hah, I read the entire article angrily looking for my beloved Jay Bruce and Seth Smith.
/facepalm
Crisp and Gardner should probably be higher. I get it, ideally you would want a player to contribute in all categories, but it’s not necessary. If I get 70 SB from one player or 35 SB from two players, the net effect is the same. The only real drawback with extremes like Crisp and Gardner is replacing them if they get hurt.
I, Luke Scott, am a yahoo in the outfield.
Also a Yahoo in real life.
Adam Jones?!