Anyone Buying Into Adam Lind?
In 2009, 25-year-old Adam Lind looked like a breakout star for Toronto. Splitting time between left field and designated hitter, Lind put up a massive .305/.370/.562 line for the Blue Jays, which along with 35 homers earned him some down-ballot MVP support and a Silver Slugger award. That performance earned him a new contract prior to 2010, one which guarantees him $18 million through 2013 and includes team options for up to $38.5 million between 2014-16.
Lind was unable to repeat that line in 2010, as his strikeout rate shot from 16.8% to 23.5% and his OBP sunk nearly 100 points to .287, though he still managed 23 homers. 2011 – now as Toronto’s primary first baseman – saw more of the same, as 26 homers weren’t enough to offset a .251/.295/.439 line. When he struggled even more, hitting just .186/.273/.314 with three homers in May of this year, the Jays removed him from the roster and placed him on waivers, inviting any other team to pick him up for nothing but the cost of his contract.
No one did.
For a player who had been thought of so highly just a few years earlier, it was a shocking fall from grace, and when he went back to Triple-A Las Vegas and crushed the PCL to the tune of .392/.448/.664, few seemed to notice. After all, everyone hits in Las Vegas; I still remember the less-than-immortal Terry Tiffee going .378/.416/.561 when it was a Dodger affiliate back in 2008. Still, as Toronto suffered injury after injury after injury, Lind’s minor-league mashing was enough to earn him a trip back to Canada on June 25.
Since his return, splitting time at first base and designated hitter with Edwin Encarnacion, Lind has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, putting up a .323/.382/.613 line with five homers over 19 games (17 starts). That’s some serious production, albeit in a small sample size, and so the question must be asked – is Lind on his way back to being the player he was in 2009, one worthy of a daily spot on your fantasy roster?
The answer, it seems, is yes and no. When Lind was sent down to Triple-A in May, Eno Sarris took a detailed look into what had derailed his career:
It might be because of all the ground balls he’s hitting. His ground-ball-per-fly-ball ratio (1.48 this year) is the second-worst of his career. The last time it was this bad, he had the second-worst power year of his career (2008, 1.68 GB/FB). He’s always hit more ground balls than fly balls (career 1.17), but his better power years have come when the ratio was closer to one.
So, the bad news about Lind’s work in Las Vegas is that his ground-ball percentage went up. So so did his line drive percentage, of course, but it’s his ground-ball percentage that has varied more over his career and seems more tied to his power output. So, the fact that his ground-ball percentage was up to 49% in Las Vegas, and the fact that 49% would have been the second-most ground-ball heavy of his minor league seasons, and the second-worst of his major league seasons — that fact does not bode well for his power over the course of the season.
That remains true, and Lind’s 1.46 GB/FB rate so far in 2012 would be his highest since 2008. But that accounts for his entire season, and we’re trying to see if the Lind we’re seeing now is different from the one who lost his job in May. The answer, so far, seems to be “not for the better”. In July, Lind has actually put the ball on the ground more than 55% of the time, more than he’s ever had in the bigs and more than he was in Las Vegas; he’s still hacking away to a 23.1% strikeout rate this month. While he has of course been putting the ball over the fence as well, there’s just no way he’s going to sustain a 30.0% HR/FB rate, and his .349 July BABIP doesn’t seem likely to stick considering that he has been at .277 or lower in 2010, 2011, and so far total in 2012. He’s now been a poor major league hitter for much longer than he was a good one, and it seems unlikely that a month in the pinball atmosphere of the Pacific Coast League suddenly gave him the cure for all of that.
Earlier, I said “yes and no” to the question of whether Lind was “back” and if he deserves some fantasy consideration, and that’s true for a few reasons. Freely available power these days – at the time of writing, Lind was still available in nearly 65% of ESPN leagues – may be the absolute hardest thing to find, especially in-season, and Lind has enough of a track record to show that he can hit home runs in the big leagues. With Jose Bautista on the disabled list and Brett Lawrie banged up, Toronto is going to need power enough that Lind is likely to get a sizeable opportunity to play. Those are all very good things, and in the right situation – an AL-only league, or a deep mixed-league situation – taking a shot on riding Lind’s hot streak seems like a worthwhile low-cost gamble.
Big picture, however, it’s hard to say that Lind looks like a markedly different player than he has been for the last few years. If anything, it’s 2009 that increasingly looks like the fluke, and while a hot streak like the one he’s on is welcome and can even help push your team in the right direction, it’s hardly something to be relied upon.
I considered picking up Lind when he returned with a bang, but when I started looking deeper into his him and I read the column Eno Sarris wrote…I changed my mind. BTW, you guys at fangraphs rock.
Thanks!
I don’t want to dissuade anyone from picking Lind up, by the way. If you’ve got a spot and can get him at the mere cost of a waiver claim, go ahead and ride that hot streak. I just don’t think he’s a long-term solution.
Look at his plate discipline. What are his numbers before and after his trip to Las Vegas.
Stat, 2011, 2012, Career.
O-Swing%: 37.1 %, 31.2 %, 31.9 %
Z-Swing%: 70.0 %, 60.0 %, 66.7 %
O-Contact%: 68.0 %, 71.8 %, 67.9 %
Z-Contact%: 86.6 %, 93.8 %, 87.7 %
Contact%: 78.7 %, 84.4 %, 80.7 %
Zone%: 41.6 %, 41.3 %, 46.7 %
F-Strike%: 58.1 %, 54.0 %, 58.5 %
SwStr%: 10.7 %,6.6 % , 9.1 %
Looks like improvements across the board. I think it would be real telling if there was a difference between his send down.
His plate discipline mirrors exactly his 2009 breakout year. Check his whiff rate — down 40% from 2010-11, back to 2009 levels, as are his contact rates. These numbers are more telling than batted ball. He rediscovered his 2009 approach
I’ve been racking my brain on this so I was hoping someone could help me out.
I was offered J.Verlander and A.Gorden for M. Trout and R.Soriano. I was thinking of countering with the same Proposal except replacing A. Gordan with C.Hart since I still need the HR production. Or J.Verlander, C.Hart, and D.Robinson for M.Trout, R.Soriano and I.Suzuki/A.Pagan Right now I have 27 more saves and 24 more stolen bases than any body else. Your thoughts?
Thanks!
If it’s a keeper league, then don’t trade Trout, obviously. If not, then it’s close, but I’d stick with Trout. Gordon does nothing for me (same with Hart for that matter), and Soriano is just a closer. It’s essentially Trout for Verlander. I side with the hitter in these spots, but it depends on your roster. If your pitching is atrocious, it’s worth doing. If not, just check free agency or waivers for a few potentially solid starters. Suzuki can be dropped and you won’t miss much of anything.
I’ve been racking my brain on this so I was hoping someone could help me out and tell what the F this post has to do with Adam Lind….
I’m almost ashamed to say I bought into Lind. As a Jays fan, he’s disappointed me many times, but also as a Jays fan, when a struggling guy tweaks his swing, comes back and starts mashing, it looks VERY attractive. I’ll keep him until the hot streak runs cold, at least.
Great article, great analysis!
How about Travis Snider getting recalled. Anyone taking the plunge on him? I’ve got Colvin and Berkman begging me to drop them, with Soriano still on the wire.
i’m wondering the same thing. does he have more upside potential than someone like carlos lee or the aforementioned soriano?
As a jays fan I’ve really had a hate-on for Lind the last couple of years. Just a lazy, disinterested ballplayer.
What was most interesting about his demotion is that it didn’t take him any time to “make adjustments” or “find his swing”….as soon as he went down, he started absolutely mashing, and has continued since his recall. Not sure if it’s ever been a talent issue with Lind, so maybe this is legit….but after 2yrs of disgusting performance, I’d wait a long while before buying into this resurgence.
Lazy & disinterested !? Wow that’s so far from the truth. He only learned how to be a good big league 1st baseman in little time and battled a nagging back problem. He never complained about a thing and is a respected part of the organization bc of all this.
But then again I have little respect for the opinions of other BJ “fans” bc most are uneducated.
I bet you’re a Maple Leaf fan too. Let me guess, they’re a contender this yr….
I wouldn’t be thrilled if I needed Lind as my starting 1B, but as a back-up insurance policy for the second half – especially with his career split stats, I’m absolutely glad to roster him.
Well, as a BJ fan and someone who had picked him the previous 2 seasons I had given up on him coming into this yr especially after his horrid start to 2012. BUT, upon his promotion back to the bigs I’ve seen a different hitter. One who’ll take the ball to the opposite field. I’m caustiously optimstic but that’s more than I’ve been in the last year or 2
Lind is a decent bench bat, especially in a league with daily changes where you can bench him against LHPs.
Been watching him lately, he got a few hits off of lefties recently and seemed to have a good approach. (HRed off of Sabathia).
Eno Sarris is the same guy who writes columns for Rotoworld that touts JJ Putz as 2nd tier closer (Rock steady!) and says that Fernando Rodney is actually in the 3rd tier of closer (OK option). I can’t take him seriously.
If Eno Sarris isn’t buying Lind, I’m buying Lind.