Appreciating and Projecting Ubaldo Jimenez

Last year the baseball world was going crazy over Zack Greinke and deservedly so. After his start on May 26th, here was his fantasy line:

8 W, 0.84 ERA, 81 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Flash forward to 2009 and check out Ubaldo Jimenez through the same time span:

9 W, 0.88 ERA, 61 Ks, 0.925 WHIP

Greinke was a shade better but nevertheless we as baseball fans should be more wowed by Jimenez than we have been. Here on FanGraphs, we have had just one article between the fantasy side and the mainland on Jimenez, and that was a piece by R.J. Anderson that talked about four pitchers with ERAs under 1.00 in April. So it is like ΒΌ of a story on Jimenez.

Jimenez has been a fantastic fantasy pitcher so far in 2010. CBS Sports ranks him as the top fantasy player overall, as does Last Player Picked and the RotoTimes Player Rater.

My favorite Jimenez stat is his ERA+, which currently stands at 515. Of course with an ERA that low, you would imagine that his FIP and xFIP would tell a different story. While his ERA is 0.88 his FIP is 2.71 and his xFIP is 3.58, which still ranks 16th among qualified pitchers.

RoS ZiPS does not anticipate Jimenez coming anywhere close to his current pace. It projects an 11-9 record with a 3.84 ERA going forward. Those numbers seem pessimistic to me but last year Greinke went 8-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 161 Ks from May 27th through the end of the season.

My WAG on Jimenez for the rest of the season is:

13 Wins
2.50 ERA
125 Ks
1.200 WHIP

In the comments section, leave your projections for Jimenez from now until the end of the year. In the offseason, I will do a follow-up piece and acknowledge the person who made the best fantasy projection for Jimenez before his May 31st start.




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35 Responses to “Appreciating and Projecting Ubaldo Jimenez”

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  1. Godzirra says:

    12 wins
    2.66 ERA
    140 Ks
    1.18 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. joe marcou says:

    5 wins
    3.00 ERA
    51 Ks
    1.2 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Dr. Strangelove says:

    12 Wins
    2.70 ERA
    130 Ks
    1.255 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Matt K says:

    15 wins
    1.75 ERA
    150Ks
    1.08 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Andres H says:

    8 W
    3.17 ERA
    102 K
    1.23 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. JR says:

    14 wins,
    3.05 (RoS) ERA
    140K
    1.4 WHIP

    He’ll start walking more, but he’ll also get consistent run support leading to continued wins.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. JR says:

    14 wins,
    3.05 (RoS) ERA
    140K
    1.4 WHIP

    He’ll start walking more, but it’s the Rockies, not the Royals, so he’ll keep getting run support and winning games.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Scott says:

    15 Wins
    2.85 ERA
    120 Ks
    1.22 Whip

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. MattyG says:

    i’ll go under:

    12 w
    1.97 era
    129 k
    1.09 whip

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Steven says:

    A little off Ubaldo; Greinke’s implosion this year… due to his change in pitch use? His Slider was his bread and butter pitch last year is being used 4% (though I thought it was 6% earlier this year) less than last year, yet clearly had the most weight /100 pitches. I’m sure he knows it too, so I’m wondering why the sudden change in favor of his change up, his worst pitch last year.

    Mixing it up is good and all, but he’s throwing his curve less effectively and using his slider less. Though I dont have the data to look at which pitches got the most swinging strikes last year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Matthias says:

      I’m curious why Greinke’s xFIP is a whole run higher this season. His K/BB is almost exactly the same, and his groundball rate is only slightly down from 40 to 38%. Does that really make a whole run of difference?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Steven says:

        His K/9 is down, by 2.21, which would result in a higher FIP and xFIP since Ks offset BB and FB

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Steven says:

    Oh and Jimenez’s LOB rate is unsustainably high (91.7%?! career 73.3) while his HR/FB% (1.8, career 7.5), so I’ll go with

    10 W
    3.00 ERA
    1.10 WHIP
    125 K

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Algonad says:

    4 W
    4.20 ERA
    1.33 WHIP
    60 K

    I don’t think he stays healthy.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Matthias says:

    9 wins
    3.30 ERA
    1.25 WHIP
    124 K

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. sh says:

    14 Wins
    2.72 ERA
    122 Ks
    1.16 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. bluethunder33 says:

    10Wins
    2.96 ERA
    120K
    1.25 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. scace182 says:

    7 wins
    3.52 ERA
    127K
    1.29 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. Chris R says:

    11 wins
    2.92 ERA
    141 K
    1.21 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. Babish says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    11 wins
    3.15 ERA
    125 K
    1.18 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. Ben says:

    15 wins
    2.25 ERA
    144 K
    1.13 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. JayCee says:

    I think UJ keeps getting better. I think he’s the next Tom Seaver.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. buck turgidson says:

    10-7
    2.62 ERA
    154 K
    1.22 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. Josh says:

    13 Wins
    2.14 ERA
    128 K
    1.23 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Brad says:

    7 wins

    4.00 era

    100ks

    1.30 whip

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. elgato7664 says:

    11 Wins
    3.78 ERA
    138 K
    1.24 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Imran Pirani says:

    17 Wins
    1.00 ERA
    140 K
    1.00 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Nigel Tufnel says:

    16 Wins
    1.90 ERA
    144 K’s
    1.19 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Toffer Peak says:

    10 Wins
    130 Ks
    3.50 ERA
    1.28 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. B.T. Charpied says:

    $1.00!

    Crap. Wrong game.

    8 Wins
    120 Ks
    3.10 ERA
    1.18 WHIP

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Chris says:

    Cy Young Award…

    ‘Nuff said

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. __________ says:

    6 wins
    4.62 era
    55K

    GETS HURT

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. 154 IP
    62 ER or 3.62 ERA
    198 (H+BB)
    1.29 WHIP
    138 K
    9 Wins

    Total Numbers
    18 Wins
    2.76 ERA
    1.17 WHIP
    199 K

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  32. saint says:

    lol fangraphs

    Vote -1 Vote +1