April FIP/ERA Splits: The Downtrodden

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90′s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).




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A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

6 Responses to “April FIP/ERA Splits: The Downtrodden”

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  1. NadavT says:

    Great post. I’m just wondering why Fangraphs doesn’t provide xFIP along with FIP in the player stats. Are there any plans to add that stat?

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  2. David Golebiewski says:

    Thanks, NadavT.

    I’m not sure about XFIP being added to the site-that’s something that you might want to ask David Appelman. That’s definitely one of my favorites.

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  3. Justin says:

    Careful when talking about Nolasco’s control: he’s leading the majors thus far with 3 intentional passes. That may not seem like much, but it can really matter this early in the season: it represents a third of his walk total! So his UIBB/9 is actually only 2.08, much closer to last year’s figure (1.53 – 6 of his 42 walks last year were intentional). Futhermore, because of his struggles, he’s facing more batters per inning this year than last, so his UIBB% this year is even closer to that from last year: 5.0% in 2009 vs 4.2% in 2008 (I’ve removed UIBBs from the total batters faced for each). By this measure, his walk rate has increased 20% (I’m using (5.0%-4.2%)/4.2%), significantly less than the 36% by UIBB/9 or the 75% by BB/9. (For the same reason, the frequency of his strikeouts has also decreased a little more than it appears from K/9: 18.5% vs. 21.6%, a 14.3% decrease.)

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  4. Ron says:

    I don’t think you can hit a beach ball over the fence.

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  5. Eric Cioe says:

    Verlander did his part today to straighten out the discrepancy.

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  6. John says:

    Wow, 4 for 5. I guess it’s just a small sample size :)

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