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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 24 — For Draftstreet

Sunday in this space, we outlined some of the hitters who gain the most and the least in the switch from DraftStreet scoring to DraftKings scoring, where strikeouts no longer hurt a hitter. On Monday, we did the same for pitchers.

If you haven’t yet, by the way, you can transfer your account here.

Today, as a final wrap on the “transition” period, we’re going to look at how scarce total points are in each format, so you can begin to re-calibrate your “dollar per point” perception (though we don’t have comparative data on the relative payout differences between the two). There’s not really a “clean” way to do this, so I’ll all do is compare the total budget and the points earned by hitter/pitcher (I excluded relievers because, while it may be instructive in some ways, they are entirely out of the decision set now).
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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 21 — For Draftstreet

Yesterday in this space, we outlined some of the hitters who gain the most and the least in the switch from DraftStreet scoring to DraftKings scoring, where strikeouts no longer hurt a hitter.

If you haven’t yet, by the way, you can transfer your account here.

For pitchers, things change far less, though there are a few points worth noting. For one, relievers are out – saves and blown saves don’t do anything, and you only have two pitcher spots to work with. For another, strikeouts are slightly more valuable now relative to other stats, gaining 186 percent in value compared to 150 percent for innings pitched and 140 percent for hits and walks allowed. A final note is that losses no longer cost you anything, so pitchers on bad teams with strong matchups can be dialled up with less hesitation.
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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 20 — For Draftstreet

Well, it’s been a week since I last threw down here and, wait what, DraftStreet acquired by DraftKings? You got it, bub. And you can easily transfer your account here. It does change some things for us in these pages, but not really by all that much.

The budgets are different, and so the player pricing is different (you’re not going to be spending $20,000 on a pitcher any longer). It will take some getting used to but identifying value will come to you pretty quickly going from one format to the other.

Here’s Landon Jones on the key differences beyond pricing:

As far as I can tell, there are four main things to address: lineups, pricing, mobile app and scoring. With Draftstreet, you had the option to start three starters, if you wanted, or you could only buy two and purchase a reliever. Draft Kings isn’t set up that way. You get two pitchers; relievers no longer matter. Lineups will now be consisted of: P (2), C (1), 1B (1), 2B (1), 3B (1), SS (1), OF (3); utility spots are a thing of the past.

The biggest change, however, is that strikeouts don’t hurt you any longer. The table below shows the biggest and smallest gainers with the new scoring system (everyone gains because points are easier to tally, but some obviously gain far more than others):
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Shortstops With Potential Second-Half Playing Time Gains

A lot can change between now and July 31, whether due to trades, injuries or a shift in a team’s set of goals for the remainder of the season. That can have an impact on shortstop playing time, and for those who play in deeper leagues and/or those with a middle infield roster spot, playing time surges at the margins kind of force their way onto the radar.

What follows is a brief look at the potential value of a handful of names who could see more playing time coming out of the All-Star break.
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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 10 — For Draftstreet

I need to show some respect to Landon, who handles these daily posts a few times a week. I have two slots, and I believe he has four. I have no idea how he comes up with something interesting and useful to write in the space so many times a week. Yesterday, I talked about air density, for crying out loud.

But here we are, a second day in a row, and I could use a rebound. I got shelled yesterday but, as always, this is a process over results game in the short term, and you trust that if you make the right plays over the long run, you’ll be paid out as such. It doesn’t mean going back to check if and where you erred isn’t valuable, though.

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 9 — For Draftstreet

Park factors are not made equal across all days. Yes, Coors Field is Coors Field every damn day of the week, but different ballparks play differently depending on the temperature and wind.

That’s why it’s not always enough to simply rely on general park factors, useful as they may be, from our Guts pages. Park factors generally take about three years to stabilize, and so how parks perform in specific conditions is something we may never get reliable samples on, since we’re splitting that data even thinner.

ParkFactors.com can be a big help in this regard, crunching the numbers for us and giving us a quick indicator of how a park may play on the day. There’s also DailyBaseballData, which gives you all the raw material for you to make your own decisions (not to mention hour-by-hour forecast information).

Turn $11 into a share of $50,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

$50,000 MLB PickEm Survivor Big Score

Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers

This Weekend Enter for $11.

DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.

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Jed Lowrie’s Power Outage Provides Buy-Low Opportunity

Jed Lowrie has had a solid start to July, hitting .296 over seven games and showing a few signs of rounding back into form. It’s been but a week, though, and there are still some troubling signs in Lowrie’s profile. Namely, Lowrie’s power seems to be missing, and that would mark the continuation of a multi-season trend of declining slugging ability.

To be clear, Lowrie has still been 20th in shortstop value, speaking to the importance of his run production and the general terribleness of the position. His positional flexibility helps some, too, but as a player who has never looked a threat to hit .275 consistently, Lowrie’s value hinges a good deal on his ability to clear the fence.

And again, that’s not happening, with just four home runs to date and a career-low isolated slugging of .109.
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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 6 — For Draftstreet

One of the areas of baseball I’ve been able to find some success with beyond daily fantasy is betting on five-inning lines. Betting on a five-inning line works the same as betting on a full game, except, well, the game ends after five frames.

Basically, a bettor “knows” more about a five-inning game, because far less is left up to bullpens and managerial decisions. While there are obvious exceptions and other elements to consider, a five-inning line is largely a bet on starting pitching. Because we “know” more, the lines generally tend to vary less, but they can be instructive for the purposes of daily fantasy by narrowing in more closely to a starting pitcher’s set-up than a full-game line.

Those lines don’t replace a full-game line or a run-line in terms of value, but they’re worth a comparison.

Turn $11 into a share of $50,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

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Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers

This Weekend Enter for $11.

DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.

Draft Your 8 Man PickeEm Baseball Team Today for $11.

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 5 — For Draftstreet

Damn, I wish DraftStreet held 5,000-person tournaments with big prize money every day. The 4th of July tourney was a lot of fun, and a No. 257 finish out of 4,811 was good for a 173 percent profit. Four people even broke 100 points on the night, which, yeah, I hope you all had Chris Sale if you were in standard tournament formats.

Here’s also hoping you’re not too hungover to get things together in time to play Saturday, with a 16-game slate and nicely staggered start times. Matter of fact, if you are hungover, I can think of few better cures than watching baseball all day.

Turn $11 into a share of $50,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

$50,000 MLB PickEm Survivor Big Score

Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers

This Weekend Enter for $11.

DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.

Draft Your 8 Man PickeEm Baseball Team Today for $11.

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 3 — For Draftstreet

Do you like baseball? Cool, me too. I have not watched nearly enough baseball the past two weeks or so, which is disappointing. NBA Draft, free agency, moving…they’ve all conspired to keep me from watching the games. Luckily, we don’t need to watch.

I kid, of course. Watching the games is important, both because it’s fun and because the aggregate numbers can only tell you so much. For the purposes of daily fantasy, where we rely a great deal on projection systems, context clues from Vegas, and analyzing specific matchups, watching the game after you make a pick can be instructive.

But you can get by, for a short while, on the numbers and with reading. That’s what I’ve had to do of late and it hasn’t cost me, but I’m getting to the point where Sunday feels like it needs to be an outright marathon baseball-viewing day. The itch, it needs scratching.

Turn $11 into a share of $50,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

$50,000 MLB PickEm Survivor Big Score

Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers

This Weekend Enter for $11.

DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.

Draft Your 8 Man PickeEm Baseball Team Today for $11.

Read the rest of this entry »