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Batted Ball Outliers: Regular Hitters

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On October 3, 2011 @ 4:27 pm In Sleepers,Stock Watch,Strategy | 8 Comments

Batters have different hitting styles that allow unique batted ball profiles. Most hitters aren’t able to maintain extreme batted ball values over a few seasons. Here is a look at some regular hitters that should expect their 2010 batted ball data to regress some in 2011.

For hitters (pitchers soon), I looked at BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB for those with a min of 400 PA. To set the baseline, I took the league leading value from the past 3 seasons (min 1200 PA). Then, I selected any player that beat that bench mark. There are not a ton of players that exceed the values because most hitters had a long enough season to get to their true batted ball talent level.


Note: 3 year average leader is in bold.

HR/FB

Name HR/FB
Mike Napoli 25.4%
Mike Stanton 24.8%
Mark Reynolds 22.9%

Only two players break Mark Reynold’s 3 year mark.

Mike Napoli – I expect a huge regression from Mike next season. One possible advantage for him is that he has a good chance of playing DH or 1B when not catching. He can get full time PAs while being a catcher eligible player. I see people way over valuing him next season, but I would be interested for the right price.

Mike Stanton – The way he hits the ball, he may be the 3 year leader in this category soon.

LD%

Name LD%
Joey Votto 27.5%
Todd Helton 27.1%
Michael Bourn 26.6%
Michael Young 26.2%
Greg Dobbs 25.8%
Placido Polanco 25.7%
Nyjer Morgan 25.7%
Andre Ethier 25.3%
Yorvit Torrealba 25.0%
Todd Helton 24.9%

Michael Bourn – Much of his fantasy value requires him getting on bases (SB and Runs). If his LD% drops to around 20%, like it was the last 4 years (18%, 17%, 21%, 18%), his value drops. I expect his 2012 AVG to drop close to his career mark of ~0.270.

Nyjer Morgan – I never know what to think of him. He is so up and down. I don’t see two up years in a row.

BABIP

Name BABIP
Adrian Gonzalez 0.380
Matt Kemp 0.380
Emilio Bonifacio 0.372
Austin Jackson 0.369


Carlos Quentin 0.242
Adam Dunn 0.240
Evan Longoria 0.239
Mark Teixeira 0.239
Alex Rios 0.237
Vernon Wells 0.214

Emilio Bonifacio – Don’t be the sucker that over pays for his 2011 season. Just stay away.

Evan Longoria – Just think of the season he would have had if he had a 0.300 BABIP.

Mark Teixeira – Ideal buy low candidate. Some people are considering him down. Don’t buy it. Even if his HR and AVG are off, he will get plenty of Run and RBI opportunities in the Yankee’s lineup.

Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells – If these 3 didn’t have large contracts, I wonder if they would still even be around. They will definitely be shunned on draft/auction day. I would not count on them to be any more than a bench player. I could see one, maybe 2, turn 2012 into something productive.


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