Pitchers tend to induce different types of batted balls. Some are fly ball pitchers. Others induce ground balls. While there are always pitchers at the extremes, a few pitchers go beyond the norms on a yearly basis. Today, I am looking at pitchers whose 2011 batted ball data was outside the normal range of values.
To get the extreme baselines, I took the the top and bottom values for a pitcher with over 400 IP total over the past 3 years. Here is a look at some pitchers that may be in store for some batted ball corrections in 2012
GB% and FB%
Initally I planned on separating these two, but after looking at the data, they were easily combined. First, Tim Hudson had the highest GB% with 60.7% and Ted Lilly was lowest with 31.7% over the 3 years. No pitcher exceeded these numbers in 2012.
Both Westbrook and Lowe are extreme GB pitchers, so not a huge surprise with these values.
A few more names make the list above and below the 3-year BABIP extreme values:
Justin Verlander: After several years of being one of the most under rated aces in the league, I have a feeling his value will not be any higher than in 2012. I would be looking to sell high.
Derek Lowe: Horrible 2011. Rumors have been circulated that Atlanta is looking to move him. Great chance to buy low.
Edwin Jackson: Sadly, he may by one of the top 3-4 FA pitchers available this off season. He is probably going to get over paid with too many years. I would be extremely cautious about chasing Wins with him if he ends up going to an offensive juggernaut.
Some similar names here as on the BABIP list:
CC Sabathia – He was hit hard and still had the season he did. Nice bit of information for later.
Ian Kennedy – A good season and could have been better.
With all of the high LD% pitchers, they seem to be decent pitchers. It looks like a nice group of pitchers to target for improvement next season. I will actually do a quick study on pitchers that exceeded a LD% and the results the next season.
A list with Matt Cain at what seems his normal position
A couple of names stick out here:
A.J. Burnett – Classic buy low candidate. Some readers may get hives just thinking about him. He will be worth taking a chance on in 2012.
Doug Fister – He may get a little too much love from the post season. Be careful not to buy into the post season hype and over pay/draft.
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