Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/21/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started here in a minute

zurzles: Let’s say Vlad comes up in September and hits his Steamer projection (.300/.364/.490). Does he go top 30 next year?

Brad Johnson: Here’s my take on Vlad. At this point, he wouldn’t be in the minor leagues if there was any chance in hell he was going to be on major league roster before ~April 15. It’s not happening

Brad Johnson: The dream is over. I’m sorry.

yojiveself: Does the Matt Adams trade now mean Zimmerman will get most of the at-bats at 1st for the Nationals?  I’m surprised to see he is actually worse vs RH pitching than Reynolds!

Brad Johnson: Yea, Zim should play most days when healthy with Reynolds clearing about a third of the reps.

Brad Johnson: They’re both old and probably injury prone. Getting them rest is best long term.

yojiveself: I’m running out of room on my roster – who should I keep – Dee Gordon or Adelberto Mondesi?  Thanks to a month long slump for Dee, Its closer than you think!

Brad Johnson: Dee

brood550: Is Gio droppable after his last few starts?

Brad Johnson: That’s going to depend on format. He was always a good, brand name streamer in 12 team mixed

Brad Johnson: Trevor Cahill and Kyle Gibson have been obviously better than him all year with lower ownership

yojiveself: Does Tyler White have an every day role when everyone is healthy on the Astros?  Shouldn’t he?

Brad Johnson: No and no

Brad Johnson: He’s not very good.

Brad Johnson: I could see some breakout potential

Brad Johnson: upon a closer glance

Brad Johnson: He needs his fly ball rate to increase to where it was in the minors and last season. That combination would make him look like a RH Muncy/Nimmo

Brad Johnson: With the current GB rate, he’s just a 110 wRC+ 1B

twinmh: How confident are you in Odor’s improvements?  Would you try to trade him for Correa in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: ok so I’ve looked at his last two months…

Brad Johnson: And I’m not see much difference from earlier in the season.

Brad Johnson: What I think happened here is that he made some adjustments between season, stuck with them, and is finally getting rewarded. He’s been more selective this year and that looks real

Brad Johnson: And now he’s getting some benefits from the selectivity

Brad Johnson: I’ll say he’s somewhere in between the early-season scrub and the monster he’s been lately

Brad Johnson: So maybe a 120 wRC+ 2B with shapely fantasy production

Reach: Most fun team to watch in baseball this year?

Brad Johnson: Lately, the Athletics. Overall, the Astros

Brad Johnson: Cleveland would be up there if their lineup wasn’t so top heavy

Brad Johnson: And if Bradley Zimmer were around to make LOL catches in CF

Ryan from Pittsburgh: Are there any mid-season tools that you recommend for calculating Roto points projections for current points vs. end of season?

Brad Johnson: Gotta hand calc that stuff

Brad Johnson: It’s not worth the effort. Focus on managing your talent.

Brad Johnson: We all obviously love projections here at FanGraphs but they’re difficult to leverage with 1/4 of a season left

rpo: First time Ottoneu player taking over a team midseason. Are JD Martinez at $44 and Sale at $50 keepers?

Brad Johnson: That’s going to depend on your roster construction.

Brad Johnson: For a typical abandoned team, yes.

Jrad Bohnson: Safe to drop Rondon now? Need room for Jansen coming off the DL

Brad Johnson: Yes

deez nutz: Is Yu Darvish done for the year?  I’d like to go ahead and drop him to free up a roster space.

Brad Johnson: Seems likely. If he comes back, it’s probably as a reliever.

Ed: McHugh has been a great half-SP for me this year, but he’s been getting beat up a bit lately. Should I cut bait, or do you think he’ll be fine the rest of the way?

Brad Johnson: There’s a decent chance he’s fatiguing in the second half. Multi-inning relief is very difficult to maintain for more than half a season.

Tim: WHEN ELOY TIME?

Brad Johnson: I’m a little more hopeful we’ll see him than Vlad. But I wouldn’t be surprised if mid-April is the answer.

Rocco: Is it ok to start Odor over Dozier ROS?

Brad Johnson: Yes.

Brad Johnson: Although I assume you can use both with a UTIL and play matchups

Ted: Am I crazy for regularly starting Jason Heyward in my 12-teamer? I know the power isn’t really there these days, but he plays every day, is hitting well and is in a real good lineup.

Brad Johnson: He’s kind of like Josh Reddick. It’s not crazy, but you should be looking to improve. He’s giving you 3 categories, it’s just that most fantasy analysis focuses on HR or SB

Brad Johnson: And he won’t give you those.

Robert: Daniel Murphy fantasy stock up or down after move to Cubs? Read into Madden’s mind for us. How will he be deployed?

Brad Johnson: Oh boy…

Brad Johnson: I think this is a stock down situation

Brad Johnson: He’ll play 4 times a week with maybe some ugly 3B work mixed in until Bryant is back

Brad Johnson: Mostly he’s there for preemptive depth and veterany feelings

Eldridge Cleaver: How do you the Matt Adams trade impacting playing time for the Cards?  Does Adams start against righties most of the time?  He seems like an under-appreciated hitter against righties.

Brad Johnson: I guess Jose Martinez plays a little less often? It’s already a logjammed roster

Brad Johnson: I think Adams mostly is used as a pinch hitter

Mike: How real is this current incarnation of Wheeler?

Brad Johnson: Well that’s a little tricky. I think it’s real in the sense that he’s improved his command and is a legitimately solid pitcher – he’s basically what everybody wants Mike Foltynewicz to be.

Brad Johnson: But… you should also take a gander at the strength of his schedule. He beat up a lot of scrub lineups.

Ken: In redraft leagues, do you change your threshold for holding/dropping a player as we enter the stretch run?

Brad Johnson: Manage the stats

Brad Johnson: If the waiver wire offers you the stats you need, take them

Brad Johnson: Be mindful of what your opponents need too

Reach: Should I be worried about Ozzie?

Brad Johnson: I mean, this was always going to happen. The signs were there all along. He’ll adjust or bounce back next year. He’s talented, but growth isn’t linear.

Brad Johnson: You’re kinda stuck using him though

Oyster Burns: Is winker a reasonable guy to hang onto as a cheap keeper in a league where I’m toast?

Brad Johnson: I am

Mike: 5×5 ottoneu –  19$ Merrifield and 14$ Segura , thoughts return? Been looking for at least one high level prospect but market has been tepid.

JD: Thoughts on Phil Ervin who is looking awfully good in the 5-spot for the Reds!

Brad Johnson: Whoops, typed Mike’s response in the wrong field 🙂

Brad Johnson: multitasking!

Brad Johnson: Uh, I’d probably just keep Merrifield and Segura for winter talks and to absorb a couple arb dollars

Brad Johnson: SB are tough

Brad Johnson: As for Ervin, I’m not quite on the bandwagon yet.

Brad Johnson: They scouting report has always been too much weak contact and pop ups.

Brad Johnson: The weak contact hasn’t been bad this year, the hard contact rate is even pretty decent. He still has a ludicrous infield fly rate

Brad Johnson: Once that LD rate regresses to normal, he’s probably a 90 wRC+ guy

Brad Johnson: Great real world 4th outfielder, interesting fantasy categories when playing every day, but not a world beater either

Reach: Do you enjoy chats?

Brad Johnson: I do!

Kris B.: In a keeper league should I keep Acuna or Soto?

Brad Johnson: You have to choose?

Brad Johnson: Acuna will steal some bases. I tend to lean towards the 5 category profile when forced between two elite talents

AKA22: You didn’t mention Tyler Oneil in your Matt Adams answer. He going to play less now?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I don’t know how the Cardinals could play Adams/Martinez in the OF and claim to be trying to win.

Brad Johnson: Maybe in very specific matchups

Brad Johnson: I think we need to see how the Cards plan to use Adams

Brad Johnson: I can’t swallow him as more than a pinch hitter/1B platoon

Kris B.: Was it a mistake to drop Max Muncy?

Brad Johnson: Yes? Depends on your league depth and needs

Brad Johnson: Like I said before, manage the stats

Mike: Dereck Rodriguez is obviously not a ~2 ERA guy. But with a combination of his home park, his deep repitoire, and his soft contact inducing abilities, is he a 3.50-4.00 guy going forward?

Brad Johnson: Should be able to do that, yea

RJ: The Rockies are going to recall Matt Holliday (who is hitting in AAA) and dilute the playing time of Dahl even more, aren’t they?

Brad Johnson: It boggles the mind that they did not claim Daniel Murphy

Brad Johnson: I hate how the Rockies only ever try to improve their bullpen

Brad Johnson: They’re obsessed with the finishing touch when they don’t have a functional lineup

Brad Johnson: Anyway, yea, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dahl lose time to bland veterans

Brad Johnson: I’m more upset about McMahon. He looks like the better player right now, and he’s blocked by Ian Desmond somehow.

Eldridge Cleaver: Re: Matt Adams – Couldn’t they bench Gyorko against righties, play Adams at 1B and move Carpenter to 3b?  Gyorko has an 89 wRC+ against righties.  Adams has a 133 wRC+ against righties.

Brad Johnson: Yes, that’s how Martinez/Adams should be entering the lineup.

Brad Johnson: Although that’s pretty rough defensively too

bleepbloop: if you were drafting a new dynasty league today, who is your #1-3?

Brad Johnson: Some mix of Vlad, Soto, and Acuna. Trout, Betts, and JRam in the mix too. They’re young enough and there’s something to be said for actualized, proven stars.

Brad Johnson: Up to you to decide on time horizons

AFL: contending now and traded rendon and giles (wouldn’t keep) for murphy, hill, and ozuna (I’ll keep both hitters) in a keeper league. how does this look for me?

Brad Johnson: I’m not especially keen of that for you since you’re contending. You dealt the best player and a useful counting stat (saves) for what I assume are marginal keepers and a decent/injury prone SP

Brad Johnson: I’d like it more if you were getting Rendon/Giles tbh

Brad Johnson: However, I don’t know your situation, needs, league depth, etc

Brad Johnson: Could be you solved some problems with expendable parts.

AFL: no love for Lindor on that dynasty top 3 is surprising

Brad Johnson: Why?

Brad Johnson: He’s fantastic – definitely a top 10 guy. Probably a first choice for 7th. But would you take him before the 6 I listed?

GoMs: Fwiw, Wheeler will be beating up on bad lineups for the rest of the year.

Brad Johnson: This is true

Brad Johnson: If the question meant “will he keep this up,” then the answer is probably yes

Brad Johnson: I was asked if he’s real. And yea, I poked him once.

SP’s: Starting Kopech tonite or wait one??

Brad Johnson: I have one share, and I’m using it

Brad Johnson: Granted, it’s a ottoneu FGpts league where I’ll probably finish 5th

Kelly: What are your thoughts on Nick Williams?

Brad Johnson: I like him. He’s often the best OF streamer on the waiver wire in 12 team mixed

Brad Johnson: I love him in that role, filling in as needed

Brad Johnson: He’s good enough to be owned outright too.

Brad Johnson: He’s improved steadily throughout the season

Brad Johnson: I like that his SwStr% is down from 19! percent to 12.8 percent

AKA22: What’s wrong with Carlos Correa? Should I be benching him for Willy Adames until he shows something?

Brad Johnson: No, play Correa

Kris B.: With Bryce Harper inevitably leaving, where do you rank Victor Robles for next year?

Brad Johnson: I don’t rank period let alone in mid-August

Brad Johnson: For more on that, I’ll write about it plenty over the winter

Brad Johnson: My yearly tirade about rankings

Brad Johnson: I think you’re hoping for something like Starling Marte from Robles with the understanding that it could take a couple years to really come together

Brad Johnson: Not everybody can be Juan Soto

Wisc: Is there any utility in trying to predict what positions will be weak in the next 5 years, or is that fluid? Could be helpful in looking towards prospects to trade for if out of it, but at the same time, 5 years ago ss was horrible.

Brad Johnson: It’s really not helpful. It’s even harder to predict where prospects will end up.

Brad Johnson: Alex Bregman wouldn’t have SS eligibility if Correa stayed healthy

Brad Johnson: Mookie Betts would be a 2B if not for Pedroia

Brad Johnson: Guys get pushed around pretty often

Vladdy: Hey Brad – thanks for the chat – have a question about an issue thats come up in my dynasty league…in years past some non competing teams would ignore the present so much they wouldn’t have enough active players to fill out a roster, instead using the roster spots to stash prospects.  We’ve tried to combat these tanking efforts by enforcing a rule that every starting roster spot must have an active, healthy major leaguer but this has caused tensions both with non-competing teams and competitive teams who simply may not want to have a catcher or favor an extra SP over a RP so we’re trying to figure out another solution.  Any ideas on how to combat the tanking issue?

Brad Johnson: The best way is to build rules encouraging nearly every owner to contend. In my home league, I do this with credits. The last two teams owe $40 dues, 10th place owes $35, and so on until the teams that win actual money

Brad Johnson: It’s effectively a $20 league

Brad Johnson: Forcing owners to play a certain way is a slippery slope.

Brad Johnson: I was warned for sitting Alex Bregman in a 20 team dynasty league I joined over the winter. Playing him and a couple others has pushed me from 19th to 14th which has cost me a shot at Acuna/Soto/Ohtani (can’t roster a player until the season after they debut)

Zac: That answer on top three for dynasty hurts my heart.  I traded Soto and Vlad for Goldy last year.  I won my league, but ultimately did not need Goldy to do so.

Brad Johnson: I drafted Vlad as a 15-year-old then traded him the January before the scouting report switched from “bad bodied 1B, possibly without enough bat” to “he’s the second coming”

Brad Johnson: I got a pick for him, I think I used it on Sean Doolittle, Pat Corbin, or Jae-gyun Hwang

Brad Johnson: In any case, ouch

GoLeafsGo: Do you have a favourite hockey team?

Brad Johnson: The Fliers I guess?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t watched hockey in ages

Bob: Thoughts on Profar?  Future 25/15 guy?

Brad Johnson: I dunno about all that

Brad Johnson: I did trade Justin Turner for him and Jose Peraza in the aforementioned weird 20 team dynasty league

Brad Johnson: It’s a possible outcome, but I see him more as a 20/10 guy

54: Dammit I always queue up the chat a few minutes early then forget about the tab and return to my WORK and then remember it a few minutes before it ends. Anyway, I clinched a playoff spot and dropped Ketel Marte for Luis Urias thinking the latter might make more noise. THOUGHTS?

Brad Johnson: I like Marte more personally. Urias could build more trade value than Marte in the near future. He’s a tough guy to gauge

Brad Johnson: I got caught with my pants down by Albies because I foresaw contact issues and 5 HR power. Urias has a similar lack of power, but I’m now hesitant to say it won’t magically appear

Tanking: In my deep 16 player keeper league, the top 4 finish in the money and the bottom 4 have to pitch varying degrees of “pizza money” – this keeps the bottom feeders from totally throwing in the towel.

Bob: Is Eddie Rosario a top 50 player?  He seems so streaky – does he end up at 30 homers and a 300 avg?  Thanks!

Brad Johnson: I got a lot of questions about Eddie Rosario today

Brad Johnson: I don’t know why

Brad Johnson: He’s a very streaky player

Brad Johnson: This is who he is

Big Tuna: Velazquez or Bryse Wilson ROS?

Brad Johnson: Gimme VV

Chad: Who do you prefer ROS…  Rosario or Adames?

Brad Johnson: Adames

Bob: Eugenio Suarez – 35 homers/.290 avg – over/under?

Brad Johnson: under and over

Brad Johnson: Just guess, those are both right around the projection

Fliers: Fliers, eh?! lol 🙂

Brad Johnson: Heh

Brad Johnson: Like I said, it’s been awhile

Brad Johnson: I take fliers in fantasy baseball all the time. Not much use for Flyers

Shane: Will Herrera be closing out games for nats when he comes of the dl?

Shane: How many saves will Kelvin Herrera get ros?

Brad Johnson: Yes, assuming he’s not waiver traded

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 6.5 saves

Brad Johnson: Doolittle should return at SOME point

Brad Johnson: And Madson could jump in there too

Rob: % Chance Lindor is on the Indians roster post 2020

Brad Johnson: He’s what? pre-arb3? Was he Super 2? In any case, I think he has 3 more club control years.

Brad Johnson: I doubt the Indians trade him. Not unless the AL Central adds a second team

Brad Johnson: It’s so easy to win one team divisions

Bob: What do you think about Rodon?  Are we starting to see his ace potential?  Is he a top 20 guy as soon as next year?

Brad Johnson: Welllllll

Brad Johnson: I like what I’ve seen this year, but his results are better than the inputs.

Brad Johnson: I think he’s going to get massively overhyped over the winter based on those quality results and the pedigree

Brad Johnson: however, among certain crowds like ours that are hyper-aware of peripherals, he may still be a good target

Galileo: RE Albies/Urias power comparisons:  Albies right before he came up was around 40% GB rate; Urias might physically have the strength to pop 15 or more homers but he’s going to be constricted by his 50% GB rate unless he does something about that

Brad Johnson: Right, but this is another thing I’m wary about making a fuss

Brad Johnson: It’s no secret that everybody wants to add fly balls

Brad Johnson: He could just lower his hands a little and hit more fly balls

Brad Johnson: The beautiful thing about that particular adjustment: some players also see an increase in contact rate (I did when I implemented it last year).

Reach: Are Ozzie and Acuna the most fun teammates to watch?

Brad Johnson: Nah

Brad Johnson: Ramirez and Lindor

Brad Johnson: Betts/JDM/Benintendo

Brad Johnson: Judge/Stanton (when healthy)

Brad Johnson: Whichever Astros you like most

Brad Johnson: Trout and David Fletcher

Brad Johnson: 🙂

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up folks

54: In my fantasy football league, there are 6 playoff teams and six consolation bracket teams, the winner of the consolation bracket gets #1 pick the next year… the draft goes on the previous years standings: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 5, 6, 3, 4, 2, 1. Everyone competes until the end because it’s imperative for the next year.

Brad Johnson: I’ve tried variations of that in the past. Messing with pick order is challenging

Brad Johnson: You want to encourage competitiveness without handicapping an ability to rebuild

Brad Johnson: The 14th place team – if trying – really needs that first pick

Brad Johnson: If they tanked, then it’s less clear who should get the pick

Brad Johnson: I’d like a lottery version of that more with all but the teams that make cash getting SOME balls

Brad Johnson: And 7th place getting a few more than last place

Brad Johnson: Not sure that would incentivize enough though

Reach: https://gfycat.com/dismalscentedblacklab

Bob Villar: How’s Michael Fulmer’s wherewithal at this point in the season?

Brad Johnson: Wounded

Hobbs: Thoughts on Hoskins in 12tm Roto dynasty? I am in 1st right now, but I’m gonna need to move an OF. Have JDM, Harper, Soto, Cain, O’Neil, Peralta. What should I look to get for him?

Brad Johnson: A really good player? I’d hesitate to trade Hoskins right now. Maybe this is what he is, but there is monster potential lurking

Walt: In NFL snake draft, first pick isn’t always the most desirable. I’d rather have a middle-of-the-pack pick.

Brad Johnson: I assumed that was a keeper of some kind

Red Sox : Who do you got as your MVP so far this year?

Brad Johnson: Both leagues? Jose Ramirez

Brad Johnson: Good game folks

Big Tuna: Starting Velazquez vs WAS tonight?

Brad Johnson: Yea

Big Tuna: Phillip Ervin has 4 HR 16 RBI and a 1.012 OPS over the last month. Should I be adding in an OPS league over J. Bauers, T. O’Neil or Teoscar?

Brad Johnson: If you need SB?