Breaking Down 2B in Dynasty Draft

Last Sunday night a few of the Fangraph writers participated in a Mock Dynasty Draft. Today, I am going to give my thoughts on the 2B taken in the draft.

R1 P7 – Robinson Cano
R1 P12 – Dustin Pedroia
R2 P11 – Ian Kinsler

These 3 are the top 2B in the league. Personally, I would take Pedroia and Kinsler over Cano based on the SB potential.

R4 P5 – Dustin Ackley

The pick of Ackley was too high IMO for a few reasons. First, I think there were better established players still on the board from other positions like Mark Teixeira and Adrian Beltre. If, a person wanted to go the prospect/youth route Hosmer, Strasburg and Posey were still available. Also, Ackley seems to have limited potential and some 2B picked below him are probably producing at or above his peak.

R5 P6 – Rickie Weeks
R6 P9 – Ben Zobrist
R7 P10 – Brandon Phillips

I probably would have picked these 3 in the opposite order. With Phillips and Zobrist, a person has an idea that the player will be on the field regularly. It is not the case with Weeks. He is just too injury prone.

R8 P8 – Dan Uggla
R8 P11 – Chase Utley

I would not be surprised to see one of these 2 in the top 5 of the final 2012 2B rankings. It is just a gamble on which one it might be.

R10 P2 – Jason Kipnis
R10 P4 – Jemile Weeks

Nice young pickups with potential. Kipnis has the chance to be stud.

R10 P12 – Howie Kendrick

I was a little surprised on how far Kendrick fell.

R11 P9 – Neil Walker
R11 P11 – Danny Espinosa
R12 P10 – Kelly Johnson

The three picks are about in line with what I expected. I see people being down on Johnson this year and he may be picked up in a lower round.

R15 P1 – Ryan Roberts

I am a little surprised to see R. Roberts get picked so early with a possible huge regression coming in 2012. The dual positions eligibility does add some value.

R16 P8 – Brian Roberts

Love the pick of B. Roberts. He has huge upside for a pick this late in the draft.

R16 P9 – Sean Rodriguez
R19 P5 – Daniel Murphy

Meh.

R22 P3 – Gordon Beckham

Beckham is a decent player to take a chance on. He may not be much in 2012 -or- he may have a break out year like Alex Gordon did last season.

R23 P7 – Jose Altuve

Altuve could be a regular in the top 10 2B lists for years to come. Playing in Houston hurts his value quite a bit. Look to see if he ends up hitting 1st or 2nd in Houston’s lineup for a jump in value.

R25 P6 – Aaron Hill

I would have taken him over Rodriquez and Murphy. Great late value.

R27 P9 – Jamey Carroll

A last round pick up. He will be waiver wire fodder in a day or two.

Two players I was a little surprised no one took a chance on were Johnny Giavotella (youth and playing time) and Ryan Raburn (past potential).




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


13 Responses to “Breaking Down 2B in Dynasty Draft”

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  1. Depressed White Sox fan says:

    Jamey Carroll is drafted and Gordan Beckham is not. /sigh

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      sorry, I missed him, he went in Round 22 Pick 3. I will be adding him.

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      • just jim says:

        In a 12 team league, with all the potential talent available at 2nd base, I’m surprised someone actually drafted Gordon Beckham. He hasn’t lived up to the hype to date and odds are with the exception of 1 career year sometime in the future…he never will. Time to move on, there are more useful players out there.

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  2. Teddy says:

    Jeff – Who would you prefer in a dynasty draft, Ackley or Kipnis?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Kipnis, depending on league categories.

      Ackley is going to struggle with Runs and RBIs with Seattle. His AVG is not great. He will put up a decent OBP if it is used instead of AVG.

      Cairo projections have them pretty close:
      Ackley: 13HRs 9SB 0.269/0.352/0.418
      Kipnis: 17HRs 8SB 0.262/0.324/0.443

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  3. Josh Shepardson says:

    Beyond the question of ceiling with Ackley, I question the pick that high based on the possibility of him being moved off the keystone position. I understand he has made strides there defensively, but his bat would play elsewhere, whereas Kyle Seager’s or Nick Franklin’s wouldn’t. Franklin may well stick at shortstop, and Seager may prove to be nothing more than a utility player, but it’s important to remember how big a nose dive Ackley’s value would take if he were moved off of second base. Toss in that Jason Kipnis went 6 rounds later, and I think it was a massive reach.

    I don’t know the bench specifics, or rules on drafting prospects, but it’s surprising to see waiver fodder like Jamey Carroll drafted. Assuming prospects can be drafted, it seems like Jean Segura (who has gotten work at SS), Kolten Wong, or Cory Spangenberg would hold more value given their upside.

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  4. ibeschubes says:

    It’s weak that you guys can draft now and us simpletons cannot.

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  5. Max says:

    So this draft would be a good template for keeper decisions, yes? Especially for weighing players across different positions.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I would say an OK template. Also look at one of Eno’s posts on the draft. Some players weren’t available, so others were used in their place.

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  6. dannyrangers32 says:

    sigh…cano 7th overall? get real. i completely agree with jeff that kinsler and pedroia should be before cano.

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  7. JT says:

    I want to go on record as the lone voice in the wilderness who still believes in Gordon Beckham. I already own him, or else I’d buy low.

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  8. batpig says:

    the Ackley pick is HORRENDOUS. The fact that Strasburg or Posey or Hosmer was on the board is even more egregious.

    Ackley will be a fine player in real life but the HR/SB upside is so limited that he’s not going to be a great fantasy player.

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