Bullpen Report: April 3, 2013

Phil Coke got a second crack at closing a game for the Tigers but ended up being far less successful than he was in his first. After Joaquin Benoit walked Trevor Plouffe to start the ninth (never a good thing), Coke induced a fly out, but then gave up single, double to turn a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 loss. In his defense, the double really should have been caught had it not been for some outfield miscommunication, but it still wasn’t an effective outing by any metric. I have been bearish the past week on Coke’s potential given his .275/.346 versus LHH/RHH wOBA splits and this outing only underscores his platoon concerns (all of the baserunners who reached today were right-handed hitters). The walk was really Benoit’s lone blemish today, so he’s likely still an option in the ninth, although Jim Leyland could just as easily roll with Al Alburquerque or Octavio Dotel, too. Your best bet with this pen may be to just pick up one of the four, hold them on your bench for a little bit, and gamble on them picking up the hot hand. It feels like picking names out of a hat right now.

With the Tigers situation a little fluid, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to stash guys like Rex Brothers and Luke Gregerson in the event Detroit panics and overpays in a trade for someone like Rafael Betancourt or Huston Street. I’m still not totally convinced they have completely ruled out the idea of bringing back Jose Valverde if things are still messy, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they try Bruce Rondon again if he shows (even slightly) better control in the minors.

Chris Perez gave up  a longball to Jose Bautista to blow his first save of the season. The solo shot sent the game to extras which still ended well for Cleveland after Toronto’s Sergio Santos returned the favor by letting Mark Reynolds poke one over the left-center field wall. It wasn’t a total implosion by Perez, so I wouldn’t read too much into this one. As long as he’s still healthy, the job is his and his leash should be pretty long given his bounceback 2012 (3.67 xFIP). Although I personally didn’t draft him as such, Santos was a trendy pick by some as a potential guy to sneak in and re-claim the closer’s role. Tonight’s game probably won’t help that projection (especially since current closer Casey Janssen tossed a scoreless inning in relief) but the good news for Santos is his fastball touched 95 mph today. Seeing that kind of velocity after labrum surgery is encouraging.

Aroldis Chapman made his second appearance in a tie game and this time he was rewarded with a win for keeping it a tie game. Scott Downs lost the game for the Angels, ironically hitting Shin-Soo Choo (lefty), before Chris Heisey sacrificed (righty) to allow Joey Votto (lefty) to single home Choo. Ironic because Downs has a career .258 wOBA versus lefties (.317 versus righties). Jonathan Broxton was tagged with a blown save in this game, although it was Todd Frazier‘s fielding error that led to the tying run scoring. However, if it wasn’t abundantly clear, Broxton is freely droppable in all standard-sized mixed leagues that don’t count holds.

• I will continue to beat the Trevor Rosenthal drum. He looked fantastic last night, nearly touching 100 mph with his fastball and getting four swings-and-misses on 13 pitches even though he tossed nothing but four-seamers. If my gut is right about Jason Motte‘s injury being serious enough that his absence is measured in months, not weeks, then Rosenthal could eventually make waves as a top-5 closer. Worst case, I’m wrong, he never sees the ninth, but chips in in strikeouts and ERA/WHIP for your fantasy squad. If you have the roster space, grab him.

• As I get ready to hit “publish” John Axford just gave up a two-run jack to Michael Cuddyer and a solo shot to Dexter Fowler in a non-save situation. Feel free to speculate on Jim Henderson.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona J.J. Putz David Hernandez Heath Bell
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Eric O’Flaherty Jordan Walden
Baltimore Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O’Day
Boston Joel Hanrahan Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara
CHI (NL) Carlos Marmol Kyuji Fujikawa Shawn Camp
CHI (AL) Addison Reed Jesse Crain Matt Thornton
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Joe Smith
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Matt Belisle Wilton Lopez
Detroit Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel Phil Coke Bruce Rondon
Houston Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz
KC Greg Holland Kelvin Herrera Tim Collins
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Sean Burnett Ryan Madson
LAD Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario
Miami Steve Cishek Jon Rauch Ryan Webb
Milwaukee John Axford Jim Henderson Michael Gonzalez
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon LaTroy Hawkins Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Antonio Bastardo
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Bryan Morris
St. Louis Mitchell Boggs Trevor Rosenthal Edward Mujica Jason Motte
SD Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer
SF Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Carter Capps Stephen Pryor
TB Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee
Texas Joe Nathan Jason Frasor Tanner Scheppers
Toronto Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Steve Delabar
Wash. Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

10 Responses to “Bullpen Report: April 3, 2013”

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  1. Ruki Motomiya says:

    I had Bautista on Fangraphs: The Game today. Felt so good to see a HR off Perez salvage that.

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  2. jon says:

    Colin – as an owner of Boggs and Fujikawa, who makes the most sense to add for my 3rd RP slot? Rosenthal to ensure the STL saves? Or an upside 8th inning fella behind a shaky closer like Pestano, Peralta, McGee? Henderson already gone. oy. bullpen whackiness took exactly 2 days to ramp up.

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    • I like Rosenthal ahead of Pestano and the TB guys.

      He gives you a hedge in STL (plus K’s/ERA help). Pestano has a shot to see the ninth inning at some point later in the season, but it will take a trade/injury/serious ineffectiveness to get him there (plus the whole RHH/LHH splits issue). My issue with the TB guys is they are behind a guy coming off a historically good season + there is no clear cut #2, so it’s a real gamble to speculate on a position that A) likely won’t open up and B) has 3 (possibly 4) options.

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  3. Tak says:

    One of my teams is a standard 5X5 23 man roster, no keeper league. I currently only have one closer, Rafael Betancourt. I have Kenley Jansen and Sergio Santos. Do you think that I should cut Santos for Trevor Rosenthal?

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    • That’s a tough one.

      I like Rosenthal b/c I believe that Janssen is good enough to remain the Jays closer. However, other people would disagree with me on that (or they could argue I’m overstating Rosenthal’s case). The velocity today (from Santos) was a nice sign.

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  4. Horn828 says:

    I believe that Casey Janssen is in a contract year. If Janssen walks, does Toronto have a logical ‘in-house’ replacement for ’14? Or would they look elsewhere?

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    • Janssen has a $6.7m club option for next year.

      Santos is under control through 2017.

      A lot depends on how this season plays out. But unless they both struggle, I’d say there is good odds one of the two is still closer next year.

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  5. KaplerforPres says:

    Doesn’t Mr. Coke know that his first inning is supposed to be perfectly representative of all future innings?

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  6. MikeInNJ says:

    Go and look up Chris Perez’ stats for the last 2 months of 2012 and I bet you dollars to donuts you will see a drop-off from the earlier part of the season. Pestano is the better pitcher and it seems likely that at the very least Perez will be dealt by the deadline to a contender (something Cleveland likely won’t be). Gimme Vinnie!

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