Bullpen Report: August 15, 2012

Greg Holland saved his fourth consecutive game since the Royals dealt Jonathan Broxton to the Reds. Holland needed 18 pitches, but gave up just one hit and fanned two en route to the save against the Athletics. Since taking over the closer’s gig, Holland has appeared in seven games, going 1-0, 4-for-4 in save chances with a 4.0 K/BB while improving his ERA from 3.54 to 3.21. Holland is available in 53 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• The debacle that is the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen continue to do what they’ve done all season — disappoint. Tonight, it was Jim Henderson’s turn. Henderson blew his first save since his name was thrown into the “anyone else want a shot to save a game” discussion in Milwaukee. The right-hander has now taken losses in consecutive outings, allowing three earned runs on five hits with a 2.0 K/BB in 1 1/3 innings on the bump. Maybe Carlos Gomez gets the next shot? He’s done just about everything else this past month..

Craig Kimbrel has put together a brilliant year — so brilliant, that his name is surfacing as a potential Cy Young Award candidate by numerous reputable baseball writers. In terms of achievements, the righty has converted 31-of-33 saves with a 1.23 ERA (1.11 xFIP) and a 15.7 K/9 (7.0 K/BB) in 44 innings on the hill.

Kimbrel has done nothing but shine when given the opportunity. But, exactly how often does he get that opportunity to trot out to the mound in a save situation? The obvious answer is each-and-every time the Braves are in position — as long he’s not running on fumes of course. The not-so-obvious answer is just once this August and only five times in the last thirty days. Mind you, in the last thirty days Kimbrel has been just as lights-out, going 4-for-5 in save opportunities with a 1.00 ERA and a 15.0 K/BB.

But that’s just it. Just four measly saves in that last thirty days.

In fantasy baseball leagues, we do our best to acquire closers with a high volume of saves in addition to colossal whiff rates and miniscule ratios. While Kimbrel provided each of those three over the course of the year, he’s given owners just two-of-three in the last month.

For those in leagues in which the trade deadline has yet to pass — either head-to-head or rotisserie, doesn’t it make sense to toss his name out to league mates to see what kind of haul you could get for him? I mean, maybe look into acquiring one of the 17 closers who have more saves than Kimbrel over the last thirty days, plus an additional piece? Or two of those aforementioned closers?

In roto leagues, your ERA and WHIP are just about set for the year but you still have time to tack on saves. In head-to-head leagues, especially come playoff time, it’s all about winning the saves category — you need bulk.

I’m not saying there are better closers in baseball than Kimbrel, but with all this Cy Young noise floating around, his value may not be higher and there may not be a better opportunity to put your team in position to make a late-season run.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Fernando Rodney (TB) vs. LAA

Rodney isn’t likely the cheapest closer to choose from in your daily leagues, but with a much needed day off on Wednesday, look for Rodney to overcome his recent blown save and stick it to his old mates. Rodney has nailed down 37-of-39 save opportunities with a 0.89 ERA (0.71 WHIP) this season.

Closer Grid:


Closer First Second Off 25-Man
Arizona J.J. Putz David Hernandez Takashi Saito
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Eric O’Flaherty Jonny Venters
Baltimore Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O’Day
Boston Alfredo Aceves Andrew Miller Mark Melancon Andrew Bailey
Chicago (NL) Carlos Marmol James Russell Shawn Camp
Chicago (AL) Addison Reed Brett Myers Matt Thornton
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Tony Sipp
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Matt Belisle Rex Brothers
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel
Houston Wilton Lopez Francisco Cordero Wesley Wright
KC Greg Holland Kelvin Herrera Aaron Crow
LAA Ernesto Frieri Kevin Jepsen LaTroy Hawkins Jordan Walden
LAD Kenley Jansen Brandon League Javy Guerra
Miami Steve Cishek Heath Bell Mike Dunn
Milwaukee Jim Henderson John Axford Kameron Loe
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Matt Capps
NY (NL) Frank Francisco Bobby Parnell Jon Rauch
NY (AL) Rafael Soriano David Robertson Boone Logan
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Josh Lindblom
Pittsburgh Joel Hanrahan Jason Grilli Juan Cruz
St. Louis Jason Motte Mitchell Boggs Edward Mujica
SD Dale Thayer Luke Gregerson Brad Brach Huston Street
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Santiago Casilla
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Shawn Kelley Stephen Pryor
Tampa Bay Fernando Rodney Kyle Farnsworth Jake McGee
Texas Joe Nathan Mike Adams Alexei Ogando
Toronto Casey Janssen Brandon Lyon Darren Oliver
Wash. Tyler Clippard Drew Storen Sean Burnett

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]




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In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com or follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

5 Responses to “Bullpen Report: August 15, 2012”

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  1. cwhitman says:

    Dropped Henderson as soon as the game was done today, have no hope anymore, hah. and he looked so good first batter.

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  2. Crazy Eddie says:

    Gregerson is not the closer in SD, never has been.

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  3. Jay29 says:

    “In roto leagues, your ERA and WHIP are just about set for the year”

    No way. Lots can happen in 6-7 weeks, even in rate stats. Yes, if you’re at a 4.30 ERA and the next team is at 3.65, you’re probably stuck. But a lot of teams are close to other teams in rate stats, and every roto point counts.

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    • Right, note that I stated “just about”, meaning almost.

      Agree that a lot can happen in the last 6-7 weeks, but the main point of my argument was the lack of appearances — which impacts both saves and ratios.

      There are 17 closers with more saves in the last month than Kimbrel, and something like 120-130 relievers with more appearances.

      The bottom line is, if the guy doesn’t get into the game, he’s not going to be of much help to you.

      If you can get some nice value for a guy who has been used just nine times in the last month — with just four saves — why not give it a go?

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