Bullpen Report: July 23, 2014

*Fangraphs “breaking news” chime* Reports are out that Rangers closer Joakim Soria has been traded to the Detroit Tigers for a package of prospects. Soria has posted fantastic numbers in 2014, thanks in large part to the return of his elite changeup. His 1.84 SIERA is 11th best among all qualified relievers, 7th among closers. While Joe Nathan has constantly been propped up by Brad Ausmus, the Detroit skipper is going to have an interesting decision on his hands. Nathan has the big contract and has not operated in a setup capacity recently. Soria’s contract is more reasonable and he has experience working out of the 7th and 8th innings. Nathan’s 3.40 SIERA isn’t great, but implies that he has been BABIPed (.333) and LOB%ed (64%) a bit more than you’d expect. But Soria is still the better pitcher. Who is the ninth inning guy? My gut tells me Nathan keeps the job for now, but his leash got dramatically shorter.

The situation in Texas is even more unclear. While Neal Cotts has been the better pitcher in 2014 (3.04 SIERA, 27% K%, 10% BB%), the recently recalled Neftali Feliz has the big arm that has seen the ninth inning before (years ago, though). The righty’s velocity has remained down in 2014 as he has struggled to regain his pre-Tommy-John fireball ability, leading to subpar rates. The sliver of hope? While his K% is a paltry 11%, his SwStr% is above-average at 10.7%, portending a forthcoming bump in the whiffs department. Even though Cotts is a lefty, he’s more than a LOOGY. He remains a potential ninth inning guy thanks to relatively good numbers against hitters of either handedness. However, it wouldn’t be altogether surprising to see Ron Washington turn to Feliz, even with a few red flags. Of course, a third possibility could be setup man Shawn Tolleson who has been steady, but not quite as good as Cotts in 2014 (3.44 SIERA, 23% K%). With the Rangers only likely to get another 10-15 save chances over the rest of 2014, there isn’t huge, earth-shattering upside here, but all three players should be scooped up. The dust should settle within a week or two.

• Speaking of trades, another “Joa” reliever is on the hot seat. Joaquin Benoit is a popular trade target among reliever-hungry teams and, while he didn’t go back to the Detroit tonight, there remains a better than average chance that he is moved at the trade deadline. Fantasy owners desperate for saves are probably wondering “wait, who is next?” While Dale Thayer would be a reasonable choice as a San Diego veteran with decent peripherals and who has a little closing experience, Bud Black implied that it might be Kevin Quackenbush that gets a crack at the ninth inning. Aside from having one of the majors’ most awesome last names, the 25-year-old “Quack” owns a 2.78 SIERA and a 27% K% during his rookie 2014 campaign. He’s primarily a fastball-curveball-splitter pitcher, with the latter being his best offering, coming in at 3.6 runs above average per 100 pitches so far this season. Like the Texas situation, the Padres don’t offer the upside of a huge number of potential “SV” opportunities, but I’m stashing Quackenbush until at least August 1st in leagues I need closer help in.

• Quick hits: Jake McGee tossed a perfect ninth inning, striking out the side on 12 pitches. The Rays are still operating a committee, but the lefty leads it. Jonathan Papelbon pitched poorly again tonight, allowing a hit, walking two, and hitting a batter. While he wants out of Philly, he also wants to only go somewhere where he’ll get a closing gig. There aren’t a ton of places he could step in immediately and be the closer (Los Angeles and Detroit have made moves already) so it’ll be interesting to see what happens here. I’m less bullish on Ken Giles than I was a few days ago. Casey Janssen pitched a 1-2-3 ninth to polish off the punchless Red Sox. He had a couple hiccups the last few days but the season peripherals still shine. He’s safe. Speaking of the Blue Jays, Sergio Santos is on his way to Triple-A. Droppable in even deep leagues where you were holding out for a miracle.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Addison Reed Brad Ziegler Oliver Perez
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden Shae Simmons
Baltimore Zach Britton Tommy Hunter Darren O’Day
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Andrew Miller
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Neil Ramirez Pedro Strop
CHI (AL) Zach Putnam Jacob Petricka Javy Guerra Matt Lindstrom
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sam LeCure Sean Marshall
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw John Axford
Colorado LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino Rex Brothers
Detroit Joe Nathan Joakim Soria Joba Chamberlain Joel Hanrahan
Houston Chad Qualls Tony Sipp Josh Fields
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Jason Frasor
LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Jason Grilli
LAD Kenley Jansen Brian Wilson Brandon League
Miami Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos Mike Dunn
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Will Smith Brandon Kintzler Jim Henderson
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia Vic Black Bobby Parnell
NY (AL) David Robertson Dellin Betances Adam Warren
Oakland Sean Doolittle Luke Gregerson Dan Otero
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Jake Diekman Mike Adams
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Ernesto Frieri
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Pat Neshek Jason Motte
SD Joaquin Benoit Kevin Quackenbush Dale Thayer
SF Santiago Casilla Jeremy Affeldt Sergio Romo
Seattle Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Dominic Leone
TB Jake McGee Grant Balfour Joel Peralta
Texas Neftali Feliz Neal Cotts Shawn Tolleson
Toronto Casey Janssen Aaron Loup Brett Cecil
Wash. Rafael Soriano Tyler Clippard Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]




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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.


20 Responses to “Bullpen Report: July 23, 2014”

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  1. jay says:

    Quack of Feliz? Pick 1 for a SV+HD league.

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  2. Mike W says:

    Who do you prefer the rest of the year, K-Rod or Melancon? I own K-Rod, but have been offered Melancon straight up. K-Rod has been scuffling some over the last month or so, but his k rate is still solid. Both are on good teams so save chances seem to be a push.

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    • Close to a toss. My gut tells me K-Rod because of the extra K’s, but I’d expect Melancon to have slightly better ERA/WHIP given his peripherals. I agree on the SV being roughly equivalent.

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  3. mg says:

    After today’s debacle, do I drop Putnam to speculate on Feliz, Tolleson, or Quackenbush?

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  4. The Flaming FIPs says:

    Trades have taken two closers from me in the last week (Smith and Soria). Frustrating.

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  5. Bobby Wagner says:

    Jenrry Mejia recorded his 13th save tonight for the Mets. This season he owns a 2.17 ERA(3.00 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) as a reliever. Do you think this is he has become the Mets closer of the future over Parnell, or is his future still as a mid-rotation starter?

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    • Mike Wimmer says:

      I dont think the Mets view him as physically dependable enough to be a 200 innings mid-rotation guy. My guess is if he closes out this year well as the closer, he should have every chance to claim the job long term. Especially since who knows what the future holds for Parnell as a Met after these injuries.

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  6. BeConfident says:

    Own yr Giles pick. It’s clever. And still may be right.

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  7. Roger says:

    I managed to grab Cotts and Tolleson. Should I feel good about my chances of having a closer between them?

    I assume Putnam has a better chance at saves than Quackenbush.

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    • Looks like Feliz is getting first crack at the gig, but I’d still hold Cotts/Tolleson for a week or so.

      I actually would rather speculate on Quack. Putnam is tied up with Petricka in a messy bullpen. Lindstrom and N. Jones could be back next month and further complicate things. Quack may amount to nothing, but he has the skills to run with the job in a good park (albeit on a bad team).

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  8. Burton Cummings says:

    Time to put Kyuji Fujikawa back in CHI (NL)’s “DL/Minors” slot. He’s pitching well at AAA and getting close to a recall.

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    • SKob says:

      I was just gonna comment on this too! I know Rondon isn’t in the ‘red’, but he hasn’t been steller and Fujikawa should at least be in the DL column.

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  9. mymaus says:

    If Benoit gets traded I’m going to need saves. Who should I pick up for ROS: Quackenbush, Thayer, Feliz, Cotts, Putnam, Petricka?

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    • SKob says:

      Feliz should get first crack, so shoot for him, I think. Not sure about the Quackenbush thing, but Thayer is the same guy he’s always been with a strangely better ERA. They might not want to rely on him in the ninth, but it’s Benoit right now anyway. I think Texas is the only one with enough incentive (they suck AND are locked into his salary) to give it to one guy, in Feliz, and let him get comfortable with it again.

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    • Feliz, Quack, Putnam, Petricka, Cotts, Thayer would be my ranking as I sit, but they are close.

      I’d try and snag Feliz and ‘cuff Benoit with Quack if I could.

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      • mymaus says:

        Thanks Colin! Do you think I ought to drop Benoit right now for Feliz anticipating a trade (Feliz may be picked up by someone else before Benoit gets traded)?

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      • Mike Wimmer says:

        I would have a tough time dropping Benoit right now, simply because what happens if he isnt traded? Granted all signs point to him going somewhere, but he is under contract for next year with the Padres so maybe they hold out until August or even the off season if they dont get an offer they like?

        If Benoit is traded, you can probably shoot for Thayer or Quack and probably get an equal or potentially better pitcher than Feliz.

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  10. Jim Finch says:

    Zach Putnam is on the DL. Not that it matters because if you’re looking to the White Sox for a closer, you’ve got bigger problems with your team.

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