Bullpen Report: June 4th, 2012

Where you don’t need a full day of games to justify talking about the bullpens…

•  Jon Rauch entered the 8th inning today to protect a one run lead and ended up with the loss after giving up two runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Tim Byrdak retired the final batter in the eighth and Bobby Parnell came on for a clean ninth inning, down by a run. Frank Francicso has actually been great lately, pitching 6 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts against just five base runners, converting all of his five save chances, so the Mets aren’t looking at any closer controversy. However, if something were to happen to Frank Squared, Bobby Parnell may get the first shot as Jon Rauch has continued to struggle with five losses, three blown saves and a pedestrian 4.27 xFIP and 5.16 k/9 and could now miss some time after being sent for exams due to elbow tenderness after today’s game.

• Cubs reliever Casey Coleman has been mentioned as possibly getting into the saves mix in Chicago but he was used today in the sixth inning against the Giants. Yes, he did throw a perfect inning but it’s unlikely that someone pitching the sixth inning will be used in many high leverage innings in the near future. Carlos Marmol started the seventh inning for the Cubs, but was unable to complete it after blowing the lead and getting the loss on two walks, a hit and a run. Sound familiar? It’s the same song we have seen all year from Marmol, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be pitching in the late innings any time soon either. James Russell pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts and has continued his season of good ERA with bad peripherals (1.80 ERA/4.69 xFIP). Russell still figures to be a primary saves candidate in Chicago, but clearly this situation is murky.

After pitching consecutive days and getting saves in both of them, Giants reliever Sergio Romo wasn’t used today with lefty Jeremy Affeldt finishing the game for the now rare two inning save. Affeldt is a solid reliever (3.08 xFIP; 8.66 k/9) but his role speaks more to the depth of the Giants pen than the chances of him getting any saves especially since Santiago Casilla not expected to be placed on the DL.

Javy Guerra had been pitching very well since being demoted from closer (one earned run in his last 11.2 innings pitched) but it will be a little while until he pitches again as he was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a knee injury. In his place the Dodgers called up reliever Shawn Tolleson, a name you should familiarize yourself with if you are in need of strikeouts. Tolleson was the 12th ranked prospect in the Dodgers system this year and started the year in Double-A before getting promoted to Triple-A a few weeks ago, and in 22.1 combined innings in the minors this year all Tolleson has done is strike out 34 batters (13.7 k/9) without the control concerns you generally see from high strikeout relievers (2.0 bb/9). The Dodgers already have a premier strike out reliever closing for them in Kenley Jansen (who converted the save tonight), but don’t be surprised to see Tolleson make his presence known if Jansen starts to struggle.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow:  Craig Kimbrel (ATL) at MIA

Anibal Sanchez and Tim Hudson face off tomorrow in a divisional matchup that the Braves will want to win. The Braves have never been shy about using Craig Kimbrel and he should be rested with the off day today. Kimbrel has been dominant of late, pitching nine consecutive scoreless innings with only three base runners and 14 strikeouts. Expect a close game tomorrow against the Marlins, with Kimbrel getting a chance to show off his electric stuff (1.92 xFIP; 14.85 k/9).

Closer Grid:

  Closer First Second Injured
Arizona J.J. Putz David Hernandez Bryan Shaw  
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Eric O’Flaherty  
Baltimore Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Matt Lindstrom  
Boston Alfredo Aceves Franklin Morales Daniel Bard Andrew Bailey
Chicago (NL) James Russell Shawn Camp Carlos Marmol
Chicago (AL) Addison Reed Hector Santiago Matt Thornton  
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Sean Marshall Jose Arredondo  
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Tony Sipp  
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Matt Belisle Matt Reynolds  
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel  
Houston Brett Myers Wilton Lopez David Carpenter  
KC Jonathan Broxton Greg Holland Aaron Crow  
LAA Scott Downs Ernesto Frieri Jordan Walden  
LAD Kenley Jansen Josh Lindblom Shawn Tolleson Javy Guerra
Miami Heath Bell Steve Cishek Edward Mujica  
Milwaukee John Axford Francisco Rodriguez Jose Veras  
Minnesota Matt Capps Glen Perkins Alex Burnett  
NY (NL) Frank Francisco Bobby Parnell Jon Rauch  
NY (AL) Rafael Soriano Boone Logan Cory Wade David Robertson
Oakland Brian Fuentes Ryan Cook Grant Balfour  
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Chad Qualls  
Pittsburgh Joel Hanrahan Juan Cruz Jason Grilli  
St. Louis Jason Motte Mitchell Boggs Eduardo Sanchez  
SD Dale Thayer Andrew Cashner Luke Gregerson Huston Street
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Javier Lopez  
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Brandon League Charlie Furbush  
Tampa Bay Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta J.P. Howell Kyle Farnsworth
Texas Joe Nathan Mike Adams Koji Uehara  
Toronto Casey Janssen Jason Frasor Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Tyler Clippard Sean Burnett Henry Rodriguez Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

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When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias

7 Responses to “Bullpen Report: June 4th, 2012”

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  1. Telo2 says:

    Cities in alpha nice

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  2. fjs says:

    Reports are that the Sox are shopping for a starter and Bard will not be a starter much longer. If that is true, will he be the closer? Or will Aceves keep his job? He comes available tomorrow in my league.

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    • Mike says:

      Aceves has been pretty successful, so he’d had to have some serious blowups before they replace him, and even in that case Bard probably wouldn’t be the first choice. He’ll probably be eased back into the bullpen in low leverage situations for a while. Also, from comments that’s he’s made, it sounds like his confidence is pretty shaken; not what one would look for in a closer. I would speculate somewhere else.

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      • fjs says:

        thanks. Actually I have Aceves and I was wondering if I needed to pick up Bard. I’ll stick with Aceves. Thanks

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    • FJS, I agree with what Mike said. Alfredo Aceves hasn’t been perfect this year, but he hasn’t been bad enough to merit making Bard the closer immediately. If Bard is removed from he rotation, he’s a good guy to keep an eye on or handcuff with Aceves, but Aceves will still receive the save opps in the beginning.

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    • The other issue to remember is Bailey should be back around the ASB. If anyone pushes Aceves for the job it will be him.

      Right now Bard is a ways away from the dominant setup guy he was in 2010-2011. Wandering arm slot, diminished velocity– the Red Sox may very well move him back to the pen as soon as this week (either in Boston or AAA Pawtucket) but he’s probably only valuable as “potential future closer” in dynasty/deep keeper leagues. Redraft guys should consider anything they get out of him a bonus at this point.

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  3. JChalifour says:

    Can anybody put it past Fredi to use Kimbrel anyway?

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