Bullpen Report: March 31, 2014

It’s not even April yet and the closer carousel is in full swing. Here. We. Go.

• Before the game started, White Sox manager Robin Ventura named Matt Lindstrom the team’s closer over Nate Jones and Daniel Webb. I apologize in leading anyone to draft Nate Jones but Ventura hadn’t named a closer and Jones was the most compelling option on the team. He likely still is the best option, but the ninth inning belongs to Lindstrom now and he succeeded today, converting his first save of the year against the Twins. Lindstrom isn’t a particularly exciting reliever with high K-rates but he throws hard, kills worms and is generally pretty good. He’s also closing now and should be owned by all teams. I can’t imagine Nate Jones will be setting up games all season but whether he’s closing games in August or May I can’t really tell you, and it might largely rely on the bullpen health and effectiveness of other teams. Regardless, Nate Jones profiles to give teams value outside of receiving save opportunities. If you need saves and missed out on Lindstrom on the waiver wire, a sneaky play might be acquiring Jones via trade or waivers as he will likely finish the year with a handful of opportunities.

Jim Henderson had a quietly awesome 2013 (2.70 ERA/11.25 K/9) but after a shaky spring, the Brewers are going back to Francisco Rodriguez. He even received the opportunity today, finishing the win for Yovani Gallardo, striking out two batters for save number one. K-Rod didn’t have a particularly strong spring himself so one has to wonder if there are some health issues at play here with Henderson. Henderson struggled with his velocity in the spring, and if that’s not returning to form the Brewers can’t wait for it to come back while trying to win games at the major league level. I hate speculating on a player’s health but there might be a DL stint in Henderson’s near future. Meanwhile, K-Rod will return to the role he had briefly on Milwaukee last year. K-Rod was certainly lucky with a 91.1 LOB% and a K-rate(28% K%) not necessarily supported with his swinging strike rate (10.2% SwStr%) in 2013, but he’s above average at getting whiffs either way. Keep a tab on Henderson’s progress as the Brewers are more committed to him than K-Rod but so long as he’s closing games, K-Rod (like any closer) is a must own on all fantasy teams.

• If you’re a relief pitcher in your thirties, there is a decent chance you were anointed as closer today. Following in Matt Lindstrom and Francisco Rodriguez’s path, Jose Valverde inched one step closer to the closer role today as he threw 1.1 perfect innings with three strikeouts only to watch Bobby Parnell blow the save in the ninth against Washington. Parnell, if healthy, is the Mets closer but Mets fans and scouts are certainly worried. Parnell was averaging 95+ mph on his fastball last year as he was proving himself as a consistent closer in Queens but during the spring and today’s outing he mostly sat in the low 90’s. Parnell is still on the road to recovery from neck surgery in the fall and his velocity could start to return to form, but if he doesn’t right the ship soon it will be Papa Grande time. Again. There isn’t much good to be said about Valverde as he has basically been ~ replacement level for the last two years. However, he has two things in his favor – health and the still valued closer experience. Similar to Henderson, if Parnell isn’t right the Mets won’t have him pitching at the major league level. I’m changing the Mets to red on the grid below, keep an eye on this situation and go grab Papa Grande in the meantime.

• Quick Hits: Wade Davis entered a tie game in the eighth inning, but also gave a run, receiving the loss in the process. Nationals reliever Aaron Barrett made his debut throwing a scoreless inning with two strike outs and picking up the win. I mentioned Barrett making the opening day roster last week and he remains a good option for those in deep or NL only leagues in need of relief. He is well behind others for saves in Washington, but he might end up being the best of the bunch in that bullpen before it’s all said and done. Tommy Hunter didn’t have a pretty spring but his role as closer isn’t in question (yet), picking up the save against Boston this afternoon. The Cubs went to Pedro Strop in the eighth inning of a tie game today and it looks like he will be next in line if/when Jose Veras is traded.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Addison Reed J.J. Putz Brad Ziegler
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden David Carpenter
Baltimore Tommy Hunter Darren O’Day Ryan Webb
Boston Koji Uehara Edward Mujica Junichi Tazawa
CHI (NL) Jose Veras Pedro Strop Hector Rondon Kyuji Fujikawa
CHI (AL) Matt Lindstrom Nate Jones Daniel Webb
Cincy J.J. Hoover Sam LeCure Logan Ondrusak Aroldis Chapman
Cleveland John Axford Cody Allen Bryan Shaw
Colorado LaTroy Hawkins Rex Brothers Matt Belisle
Detroit Joe Nathan Joba Chamberlain Al Alburquerque
Houston Chad Qualls Josh Fields Matt Albers Jesse Crain
KC Greg Holland Kelvin Herrera Aaron Crow
LAA Ernesto Frieri Joe Smith Kevin Jepsen Dane de la Rosa
LAD Kenley Jansen Brian Wilson Paco Rodriguez
Miami Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos Mike Dunn
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Jim Henderson Brandon Kintzler
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Jose Valverde Jeurys Familia Vic Black
NY (AL) David Robertson Shawn Kelley Matt Thornton
Oakland Jim Johnson Luke Gregerson Sean Doolittle Ryan Cook
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Jake Diekman
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Tony Watson
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Carlos Martinez Kevin Siegrist
SD Huston Street Joaquin Benoit Alex Torres
SF Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Javier Lopez Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Tom Wilhelmsen
TB Grant Balfour Heath Bell Joel Peralta
Texas Joakim Soria Alexi Ogando Jason Frasor Neftali Feliz
Toronto Sergio Santos Steve Delabar Brett Cecil Casey Janssen
Wash. Rafael Soriano Tyler Clippard Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

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When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias

21 Responses to “Bullpen Report: March 31, 2014”

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  1. PBMax says:

    Good stuff thank you!

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  2. thatpj says:

    Don’t think Axford should be in yellow after Opening Day. Allen did himself no favors.

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    • majnun says:

      After one game he’s a lock? Not how it works.

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      • thatpj says:

        He has the job, which is more then Henderson and Jones can say. Axford was in the yellow before the season even started. If the 2nd in line is pitching worse then the actual closer, then he has no chance to overtake him.

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  3. Daniel says:

    To be fair to Parnell, he didn’t pitch too badly and got screwed on a missed third strike call that would have ended the game, but his velocity was way down. I think he hit 93 once and 94 once as well, but most of his fastballs were about 90. Wouldn’t be too surprised if they moved him back to AAA for a brief stint.

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  4. SeattleSlew says:

    In the KC vs Det game I don’t understand why they didn’t just bring Holland in instead of Wade Davis, in the beginning of the inning. I would think it is better to bring in your best pitcher before the winning gets on base.

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    • Yeah, managers still have some to learn about optimal bullpen usage. They’re committed to saving their closers and making sure they get saves, rather than winning baseball games…occasionally.

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  5. Dalman says:

    Neal Cotts was specifically mentioned by Ron Washington as having a set up role along with Alexi Ogando and doesn’t have a serious lefty/righty splits issue. Ogando hasn’t looked dominant this spring. I think Cotts at least has the second runner up chair in Texas and has an opportunity to emerge as the primary setup/8th inning guy.

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  6. Andrew says:

    The bullpen report is great, as always, but I would like to see some attention given to holds in this space given the recent poll which showed a majority of readers here play in at least one holds league.

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  7. Farmer Ted says:

    Ugh. Valverde? Why did it have to be Valverde?

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  8. Jackson says:

    Parnell is out. Torn MCL.

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    • Yup, I’ll have to talk about their bullpen in more depth tonight but Valverde is now the closer for the Mets. Crazy.

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      • Jackson says:

        For holds Jeurys Familia looks like the 8th inning guy. Expect a high ERA & WHIP with no K’s. As a Met fan I say forget him. Better off with a 6th inning LOOGY from another bullpen.

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  9. TH_BINN says:

    Hey Ben,

    Love the column. Great work as always. In a 12 team mixed league where all teams carry 4 or 5 RPs. With Parnell out, would you recommend Kintzler or Sean Doolittle as a replacement?

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