Bullpen Report: May 24, 2013

• Uh oh. Jim Henderson went down with a left leg injury trying to finish off a one-run game tonight in Milwaukee. It didn’t look good; his plant leg essentially buckled on a pitch to Russell Martin. He tried one warmup pitch but grabbed at back of the leg again before being led off the field. Who came in for the last out of the game? None other than Francisco Rodriguez, who induced a Neil Walker groundout to pick up career save number 295. After the game, Henderson was diagnosed with a hamstring injury. Ouch.

Rodriguez has taken a lot of heat for his pitching (and non-baseball antics) the last few years, although some of it unduly so (at least on the pitching front). Somehow only 31, his SIERA the last three years has been 2.72, 2.75, 3.50. Yes, last year wasn’t outstanding, in large part because his BB% crept up into double digits for the first time since 2009, but he’s been extremely serviceable as a high-leverage arm. If there was one major concern about him in 2013, it’d be that his fastball is below 90 mph, although a quick glance at his velocity charts show that his current stretch is not unprecedented. Grab K-Rod in all leagues. With him being summoned tonight, you can gamble that he’s first in line behind Henderson.

Of course, if Henderson’s bum hammy requires a disabled list stint, this could also be the door opening Milwaukee’s mustachioed ex-closer needs. John Axford‘s ERA still sits north of 6.00, and his xFIP was actually higher in May (4.65) that it was in April (3.51). Walks will do that to you. But Ron Roenicke has tried to give him the closer job back when he wasn’t doing well before, so it can’t totally be ruled out. If Axford was dropped in deeper leagues, he’s worth a stash until Henderson’s injury situation shakes itself out.

• Double uh oh. Ernesto Frieri‘s wild fours over his last three outings (four hits, four walks, four runs) may have him in the doghouse in Los Angeles. A day after Frieri threw 35 pitches before being yanked from a save situation, Mike Scioscia let righty (and Jeff Weaver-lookalike) Garrett Richards finish a multi-inning save against the Royals. Frieri’s 17.6% BB% is reminiscent of a Carlos Marmol line, and it’s showing in his ERA predictors, with his SIERA (3.95) and xFIP (4.79) being well north of his 3.05 ERA mark. Scioscia showed last year (see, Scott Downs) that he isn’t afraid of a committee or riding the hot hand, so Frieri owners should be a little fidgety tonight. Given his peripherals, I’d try and sell him if I have him.

One thing in Frieri’s favor is the total decimation of the rest of the Angels bullpen. The half-starter/half-reliever Richards (and his 3.87 xFIP) is getting high-leverage opportunities primarily because he’s one of the last options left. Downs is still an option, as is the strikeout-fearing Jerome Williams, but neither have elite upside in either the eighth or ninth innings. Robert Coello strikes out a ton of guys, but copious walks make him a mini-Frieri. The darkhorse here is Dane de la Rosa, a career minor leaguer who showcases an improved fastball this season, helping him to a 3.73 xFIP. Unfortunately for those looking for a diamond in the rough, his career AAA FIP is a solid, but unspectacular 3.35. I guess I’d roll the dice on him or Richards if I wanted to really speculate in a deep league, but if I don’t have free roster spots to play with, I’m waiting to see whether or not Frieri gets tossed back into the fire, rendering this talk moot.

Fernando Rodney is still the closer in Tampa Bay. Well, at least, so decrees Joe Maddon. Check out the Bullpen Report archive for more crooked hat jokes than you’ll ever want. Rather than rehash, the real take home message here is that Joel Peralta (3.11 SIERA) needs to be owned in all leagues in case Rodney can’t find the strike zone (it’s right there!)

Sean Marshall‘s season of injury continues. The southpaw was sent to the disabled list with a sprained left shoulder. This is the second time his pitching shoulder has given him trouble, so there is reason for concern. Marshall’s peripherals aren’t too far off of last season (his K% is down a couple percentage points) but the fact that his velocity is below 90 mph for the first time since 2009 (when he was still being used occasionally as a starter) might be a marker of his shoulder woes. While Marshall has the potential to be one of the elite holds guys in baseball when healthy, no one would blame you for dropping him in all but the deepest of leagues.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Heath Bell David Hernandez Matt Reynolds J.J. Putz
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Cory Gearrin Luis Avilan Jordan Walden
Baltimore Jim Johnson Darren O’Day Pedro Strop
Boston Andrew Bailey Junichi Tazawa Koji Uehara
CHI (NL) Kevin Gregg Kyuji Fujikawa Carlos Marmol
CHI (AL) Addison Reed Jesse Crain Matt Thornton
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton J.J. Hoover Sean Marshall
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Joe Smith
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Phil Coke
Houston Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz
KC Greg Holland Aaron Crow Tim Collins Kelvin Herrera
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Robert Coello Ryan Madson
LAD Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario
Miami Steve Cishek Mike Dunn Chad Qualls
Milwaukee Jim Henderson Francisco Rodriguez John Axford
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon LaTroy Hawkins Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Phillipe Aumont Antonio Bastardo Mike Adams
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Tony Watson
St. Louis Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Fernando Salas Jason Motte
SD Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Jean Machi Santiago Casilla
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Carter Capps Charlie Furbush
TB Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee
Texas Joe Nathan Tanner Scheppers Jason Frasor
Toronto Casey Janssen Steve Delabar Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]




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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

20 Responses to “Bullpen Report: May 24, 2013”

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  1. BJSurhoff says:

    Brewers fan here. I think its going to be KRod, but Axford has been back to his successful self the last week. He’s throwing 97 and locating his breaking stuff, and Roenicke loves him. But I think KRod gets a chance for at least a couple of weeks to show whether he can do it or not. I don’t think it will be long term, because either Henderson comes back, or Ax gets another shot.

    Also, KRod looks like he’s in better shape, which can only help. And by better shape, I mean he looks less bloated / fat.

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  2. STEALTH says:

    Great. I just traded for Henderson and I’ve used my 4 moves for the week… I guess that’ll teach me to use up all my moves before Sunday.

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  3. kozilla says:

    So are you not concerned with Jim Johnson? He seems like another one who deserves at least a yellow light in my eyes. I would probably add Tommy Hunter to the list of guys in the waiting as he has been lights out and has an improved fastball compared to as a starter.

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  4. majnun says:

    Frieri just threw 35 pitches the day before. You don’t think it’s a case of him being simply unavailable? I’d be more worried if a replacement came in and only pitched the ninth. Keeping Richards in for two innings tells me that this was a taxed bullpen situation. If I’m a frieri owner I’m no less worried than I was yesterday. Moving frieri now would be a big sell low, and you don’t do that with a guy whose best competition (madson) is no longer an imminent threat.

    I’d do the opposite if anything. Point to Richards getting the save, and Frieri’s poor play, and acquire a player who has a better shot of keeping the job all year than he did two weeks ago.

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    • Brandon says:

      You should be worried. As the author stated, not having one obvious replacement won’t hold LAA from demoting him and going with a committee. He has a horrible walk and home run rate. Hell be lucky to have the job going into July unless he improves on his current performance.

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      • majnun says:

        I said I was no less worried because of Richards. The author seemed to be “uh-oh ing” based on Richards getting a saved.

        “He’ll be lucky to have the job going into July”

        that’s already more optimistic than things were when Madson was about to come back. Closers have not great trade value as is. If you want to trade a closer who had a high walk rate and a talent for giving up dingers, do it before he starts blowing saves.

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    • Andrew says:

      I agree, the manager didn’t “let” Richards get the save, it would have been irresponsible for him to pitch Frieri after a 35 pitch night. And especially with all the 4 out save opportunities Frieri has been given in a row.

      Frieri’s being overused. Scioscia is one of the worst managers in the game.

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    • No, it’s very possible he was unavailable. I never said he’s been taken out of the role.

      However, closers under Scioscia are historically a bad investment. Frieri got yanked from one ninth mid-save opp and another guy racked up the S next day.

      Even if it was just rest, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Scioscia play matchups or ride the hot hand while Frieri can’t find the plate.

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  5. Chris says:

    Maddon did voice strong support of Rodney but if Rodney keeps walking a batter per inning, how long can he truly stay with him?
    Rodney had a freakishly great year last season that is clearly an outlier. He has returned the the Rodney of old with little control. He cannot last the season if the Rays want to contend and Maddon is smart enough to know that deep down inside.

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  6. Matthew says:

    I own Fernando Rodney and just picked up Joel Peralta. Should I go back and drop Peralta for K-Rod or should I stick with Peralta?

    Thanks!

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    • Matthew says:

      Or I could drop David Phelps with his injury.

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    • I’d lean towards dropping Phelps, but if you don’t want to do that I’d hold Peralta and hold my TB hedge.

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      • The Humber Games says:

        Keep in mind that Phelps’ value is short term because he’s probably destined for the bullpen when some combination of Pettite/Pined a/Nova rejoin the rotation.

        So with this injury he’s probably lost that short term value even

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    • ralphwiggum41 says:

      Drop Phelps, and let these two situations play out with lottery tickets on your roster.

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  7. Darren says:

    Crazy prediction: Roberto Hernandez will be the Rays closer by the end of the year.

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    • ralphwiggum41 says:

      Yes, I agree. The former White Sox closer retired way too early, and deserves another chance.

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  8. Chris says:

    Rodney just blew ANOTHER save.

    His last 5 appearances he’s allowed 7 ER and his ERA is 13.50.

    If Maddon still says his job is safe then he is essentially saying that a closer should not lose his job because of poor performance.

    Ludicrous.

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  9. lee says:

    Coello has walked nobody this year. maybe it’s a fluky 7 innings but he is missing bats (12k 2 hits)

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  10. Eric says:

    Phillipe Aumont is in AAA for the Phillies (got sent down Wednesday), so I doubt he’s “First” after Papelbon.

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