Bullpen Report: May 28, 2014

Ronald Belisario took the BS tonight. It wasn’t a complete meltdown, as the two hits in the inning were not tremendously well-struck and the walk that shows up in the box score was intentional. But results are results and he did not convert the save. Over the last few weeks, Belisario still has the best peripherals in this pen (2.70 xFIP) but  now owns the worst ERA (5.40). Manager Robin Ventura has previously said he’ll stick with Belisario, but this string of outings where he’s being BABIPed may cost him a shot at locking down the ninth inning gig.

So who should we look at if Chicago pulls the plug and turns elsewhere? Jake Petricka had a save last week and hasn’t allowed a run in a while. However, he hasn’t been pretty while doing it, with the righty posting a sub-par 16% K% and an even more sub-par 13% BB% (4.19 xFIP). Daniel Webb continues to own the best raw stuff in this bullpen but also continues to struggle with command. He’s been pushed out of high leverage innings over the last month and probably needs a strong run of outings to work his way back into the discussion.

Scott Downs has closing experience but is a lefty with poor platoon splits. He would be an option in a true committee, but not standalone closer material. Javy Guerra is similarly experienced but hasn’t been that good… well… ever. The dark horse in all of this may be Zach Putnam. The 26-year-old may not have elite-elite stuff but had a career K% north of 20% and a groundball rate on the right side of 50%. He is gaining his manager’s trust, as he is only behind Petricka (and ahead of Belisario) in leverage index while entering the game (1.49) over the last two weeks. It’s tough to tease out the depth chart exactly with the odd usage over the last few weeks, but I’m prioritizing Putnam and Petricka in this bullpen for speculation plays.

• An ugly ninth inning for the Rockies tonight. LaTroy Hawkins opened the frame with a one-run lead. After a lineout, a Josh Rutledge error put a runner on. Hawkins then gave up a single to power-hitting Ben Revere before inducing a Jimmy Rollins fly to left. With two lefties due up and key lefty Rex Brothers already used, Walt Weiss turned to Boone Logan to finish off the game. A Chase Utley single and a Ryan Howard bomb later and Colorado is on the losing end of a 6-3 score.

We’ve covered Hawkins extensively in this space. He has showed decent control for a 41-year-old, but it’s almost impossible to be a late inning reliever with a sub-10% K%. His whiff issues are compounded by the fact that he relies on outs in play while playing in the ballpark that is worst for converting balls in play into outs. Blech. The time has come to make sure Adam Ottavino and Brothers are scooped up in all leagues. Brothers has the pedigree but is a lefty and is sporting a near-Marmolesque 14% BB% on the season. Ottavino is less heralded but has better peripherals during the 2014 season. I’m prioritizing the righty (Ottavino) ahead of the lefty (Brothers) here, but both should be owned across the board. For what it’s worth, Logan’s implosion tonight effectively torpedoed any discussion of him seeing high-leverage innings in the near future.

• It continues to be tough to get a bead on exactly who has the upper hand in the Cleveland bullpen. Bryan Shaw took the loss tonight, although his run was unearned thanks to a Mike Aviles error. He also was held back for later in the game unlike Cody Allen who pitched the eighth. Allen was on the hook for the loss until Cleveland tied it up off Belisario (see above). The righty wasn’t terribly impressive, giving up a hit and a pair of walks. We’ll keep Shaw ahead of Allen on the depth chart, but I need to stress that it’s for table formatting purposes only. If you have a real good idea who is going to get tomorrow’s save, you’re apparently Terry Francona. Tito, thanks for reading!

• Quick hits: Jonathan Papelbon picked up a scab win in the Phillies/Rockies game. I still don’t love the velocity drop and would still try to sell, but he’s pitching well enough to continue chugging along as a mid-tier closer. Jeurys Familia nabbed a multi-inning save after coming in in the eighth and getting to stay in after the Mets extended their lead. Jenry Meija is still the main squeeze in this pen, but Terry Collins is apparently “in love” with Familia’s stuff recently, so he’s worth a grab in deeper leagues if you desperately need saves and can cut someone of non-importance loose. I’ve flipped the Pirates bullpen over to red based on this source that Alan dug up last night. It’ll flip back to green at some point (one way or the other).

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Addison Reed Brad Ziegler Oliver Perez J.J. Putz
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel David Carpenter Luis Avilan Jordan Walden
Baltimore Zach Britton Darren O’Day Ryan Webb Tommy Hunter
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Andrew Miller
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Neil Ramirez James Russell Pedro Strop
CHI (AL) Ronald Belisario Zach Putnam Jacob Petricka Matt Lindstrom
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sam LeCure
Cleveland Bryan Shaw Cody Allen Scott Atchison
Colorado LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino Rex Brothers
Detroit Joe Nathan Joba Chamberlain Al Alburquerque Joel Hanrahan
Houston Chad Qualls Kyle Farnsworth Josh Zeid Jesse Crain
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Aaron Crow
LAA Ernesto Frieri Joe Smith Michael Kohn Dane de la Rosa
LAD Kenley Jansen Chris Perez Brian Wilson
Miami Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos Mike Dunn
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Will Smith Brandon Kintzler Jim Henderson
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia Daisuke Matsuzaka Bobby Parnell
NY (AL) David Robertson Dellin Betances Adam Warren Shawn Kelley
Oakland Sean Doolittle Luke Gregerson Jim Johnson
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Antonio Bastardo
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Tony Watson
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Carlos Martinez Jason Motte
SD Huston Street Joaquin Benoit Alex Torres
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Jean Machi Santiago Casilla
Seattle Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Tom Wilhelmsen
TB Grant Balfour Jake McGee Joel Peralta
Texas Joakim Soria Alexi Ogando Jason Frasor Neftali Feliz
Toronto Casey Janssen Brett Cecil Steve Delabar Sergio Santos
Wash. Rafael Soriano Tyler Clippard Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]




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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.


14 Responses to “Bullpen Report: May 28, 2014”

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  1. justin says:

    machi droppable? saves and holds league

    delabar loup allen brother fien peralta oday all available

    8 teamer deep benches so i can afford to drop a Sp to pick up guys who should not be on the wire..could part ways with iawakuma chavez or irvin santana?

    thx for your hard work!

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    • Enrique says:

      Why drop Machi? He’s allowed 1ER all year. Aren’t you setting the bar a little high?

      I’d take him over all those guys you mentioned (Delabar’s probably the best of the bunch). But don’t make a move just to do something. I think Machi, WSmith, and Betances are the best middle relievers in the game. Sit back and enjoy.

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  2. justin says:

    sorry to ask another question…what should we do with melancon? droppable or sit tight

    thanks!

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    • Brian says:

      FIO – Figure It Out

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    • Enrique says:

      Why drop him? I wouldn’t drop Melancon until Grilli pitches well in back-to-back games.

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    • BB says:

      I dropped Melancon last week b/c I really wanted to add Keuchel and didn’t have anyone else drop. I basically rolled the dice that Grilli would nail down the closer role quickly, and I’m hoping that will work out for me. But it’s definitely making me nervous. If you can afford to do it, I would absolutely hold Melancon another week or two until Grilli is established in the role.

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      • Tom B says:

        By the end of those two weeks, Grilli will probably be hurt again anyway. I wouldn’t drop Melancon for anyone unless I was desperate for saves.

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  3. David says:

    I love how Hawkins ended up with the loss AND a hold in the same game!

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  4. Feeding the Abscess says:

    Mejia did throw 37 pitches in a 2 inning save last night. Could be why he wasn’t out for the save today.

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  5. Jeff says:

    Seems like the Mets could safely be yellow at this point, no?

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  6. Reilljt0 says:

    I have both Shaw and Allen in my league (14 team standard 5×5 Roto). Would you drop either for Familia or Ottavino?

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    • Mike Wimmer says:

      I wouldn’t add Familia, Mejia has that role down barring an injury or a couple blow ups, the job is his. Ottavino needs to be owned, Hawkins will be out of the closers role by mid June at the latest. I would keep Allen because I still believe in his talent.

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