Buy Low Candidate: Todd Helton
Once upon a time, Todd Helton was a fantasy monster and one of the very best players in the world. His 2000-2004 seasons were off-the-charts great — .349/.450/.643 with a .452 wOBA in 3,448 PA — and it wasn’t just Coors Field because a ton of other players played there as well, and none of ‘em hit like that. Age and injuries have taken their toll on the greatest player in Rockies’ history, but Helton has remained productive in recent years and is currently a nice little buy-low candidate for fantasy owners.
The 38-year-old first baseman is currently sitting on a fun, early-season .222/.300/.481 batting line through 60 plate appearances. He’s getting regular rest — usually in day games after night games — and eight of his dozen hits have done for extra bases. One of his three homers came in Coors, the other two in the launching pad for left-handers known as Miller Park. Helton is still drawing a ton of walks (10.0%), but he’s going to have to get his batting average out of the dumpster to post his typically gaudy OBP.
One of the reasons I’m optimistic about Helton going forward is that batting average, or rather the expectation that it will improve over time. The back injuries cut down on his fly ball rate years ago, but aside from one outlier in 2010, his batted ball profile has remained relatively static over the last half-decade…
Helton posted a .329 BABIP from 2007-2011, which is when his batted ball profile started to level off. Right now he’s sitting on a .205 BABIP, which is so hilariously low that even if he’s about to fall off the proverbial cliff, he would still be in line for some kind of BABIP and batting average correction. It might take a little longer than usual given his regular rest, but very few players are legitimately that bad. Even at his age, Helton is not one of them.
Of course, we’re still not talking about a guy you want starting at first base on your fantasy team. Helton is best used as an injury fill-in who won’t kill your rate stats or a utility/corner infield spot option in deeper leagues. He’s owned in just 14% of Yahoo! leagues and I think there’s a good chance to steal a very good month or two worth of production if you check the daily lineups religiously and aren’t blocking a better player.
Todd Helton is the perfect deep league option for those who are willing to check daily matchups.
Entering this season, his career OPS vs LHP is .844; career OPS vs RHP was .982
In 2011, his OPS vs LHP was .794; 2011 OPS vs RHP was .879
Entering this season, his career OPS at Coors was 1.027; career on the road was .852
In 2011, his OPS at Coors was .893; 2011 OPS on the road was .807
If you have the depth, Todd Helton can still be an absolute all star for 60+ games for you if you can afford to start him only at home vs RHP.
How much of a buy low guy is Scherzer? His FIP is in the mid 3′s, but there’s also rumblings that he isn’t repeating his delivery, which is concerning. Obviously he won’t finish with an 8 ERA but with that defense and the possibility of being sent down, is he a guy to target?
Quite a stretch to link Scherzer to this article.
Max Scherzer – those malamute dogs that have one blue and one brown eye – dogsledding – snow – the rockies – the Rockies – Todd Helton.
Thanks for the help guys
Best thread ever! i can’t stop laughing at this guy’s expense. but about Scherzer, his xTVLS%2.0 buy low rating is 4.7 right now, so he’s due for some spontaneous re-regressionary dynamic fluctuation. Just make an inverse square recipricols plot and it’s all there in front of you. your welcome
Also note Helton has 36.7% PAs vs. lefties vs. career rate of only 28.7%. Given that his OPS vs. righties is 974, that’s more reason to be optimistic going forward.
wow, you guys are dicks. Did responding to that Scherzer post make you guys feel better than simply ignoring it?
obviously fangraphs is where you experiment with very specific player jokes you’ve been working on, not where you discuss fantasy baseball
Fangraphs’ has been weird for a minute now. When any dumb prick can comment back, that’s how it’s gonna be.
The content is wonderful, don’t get me wrong, but the discussion areas? Everything is an inside joke or something about Dave Cameron and the Mariners, from the few times I creep this far down the page to read the comments.
Grant, I learned the difference between your and you’re in 3rd grade. You’re welcome, smart guy.
after his homer today he is now hitting (.270/.352/.587)! (I just happened to read this article right before checking the day’s stats)
Someone dropped Helton in my 12-teamer last week and I was absolutely freaking starving for a corner IF (Went through Belt, Stewart, J.Guzman). Thank you for the lifeline!!