Buy Low on Jason Heyward
A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldn’t legally buy a beer. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.com’s latest ADP rankings.
While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Here’s why.
He’s still really young
Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. For comparison’s sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. It’s easy to lose sight of Heyward’s age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. But he’s younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and he’s younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis D’Arnaud.
With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a player’s long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitter’s career. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years?
His rookie year was off-the-charts good
Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didn’t punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title:
| Rk | Player | OPS+ | Year | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ty Cobb | 167 | 1907 | 20 |
| 2 | Mel Ott | 165 | 1929 | 20 |
| 3 | Al Kaline | 162 | 1955 | 20 |
| 4 | Mickey Mantle | 161 | 1952 | 20 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 160 | 1996 | 20 |
| 6 | Ted Williams | 160 | 1939 | 20 |
| 7 | Rogers Hornsby | 150 | 1916 | 20 |
| 8 | Jimmie Foxx | 148 | 1928 | 20 |
| 9 | Dick Hoblitzell | 143 | 1909 | 20 |
| 10 | Frank Robinson | 142 | 1956 | 20 |
| 11 | Mel Ott | 139 | 1928 | 19 |
| 12 | Ken Griffey | 135 | 1990 | 20 |
| 13 | Sherry Magee | 134 | 1905 | 20 |
| 14 | Tony Conigliaro | 133 | 1965 | 20 |
| 15 | Jason Heyward | 131 | 2010 | 20 |
| 16 | Ty Cobb | 131 | 1906 | 19 |
| 17 | Vada Pinson | 128 | 1959 | 20 |
| 18 | Orlando Cepeda | 125 | 1958 | 20 |
| 19 | Stuffy McInnis | 121 | 1911 | 20 |
| 20 | Sherry Magee | 121 | 1904 | 19 |
| 21 | Willie Mays | 120 | 1951 | 20 |
| 22 | Claudell Washington | 119 | 1975 | 20 |
| 23 | Johnny Lush | 118 | 1904 | 18 |
| 24 | Johnny Bench | 116 | 1968 | 20 |
| 25 | Arky Vaughan | 114 | 1932 | 20 |
Source: Baseball-Reference
If you’re keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Heyward’s year wasn’t in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza.
With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011
There’s no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO).
But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21.
Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldn’t be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth.
For a big man, he can run a little
While he’s never going to be a big stolen base threat, he’s a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects he’ll have 14 SB in 2012. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers.
His 2012 projections are strong
With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012:
ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR
Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR
Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR
The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR
Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver don’t know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Granted, we can’t just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder.
It may sound strange, but in a way Heyward’s 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but it’s important to remember that he’s still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012.
Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldn’t legally buy a beer, either. :P
At the end of April, right before his shoulder injury, he had a .879 OPS and 7 homers (42 home run pace). He’ll be fine.
I thought he injured his shoulder in spring training?
He has a Greg Oden feel to him, where he looks and moves like an old man.
Ya he kinda even looks like Oden. Ya know, the whole man child look and what not.
stop running articles about him! he cant be a buy low if you keep telling everyone
Happens every damn year, by the time the draft roles around, all of the “sleepers” are going high.
don’t worry, rotographs is still a pretty well-kept secret, unless you roll with seriously hardcore people
I live in Atlanta and looking at his swing by the end of last year he was just not the same player. He looked hurt and like it was just a lost season. I’m sure when (if) he’s fully healthy he will fix his swing and become the hitter he’s projected to become
How high is he still a good buy low? If his ADP is 114 right now, you have to figure it will be in the 90s by the time drafts start. Is he worth it in the 7th, 8th or 9th round? How early is too early?
Personally (in the context of now, where every player is “in the best shape of his life” and there are no injury concerns), I would still venture a 6th round pick on him if there was no one that fell that I liked better. Last season he was a 4th round ADP as a 2nd year player. A two round drop for the injury/bust risk seems right.
It’s totally irrelevant, but I think aside from Matt Cain…….Heyward is the most boring MLB player alive. Not on the field, personality-wise……
I hope he has a monster season though.
no no no no…i like the Greg Oden comparison. Keep him slotted with all the bounce back candidates like Werth and Hart.
Tired of hearing about his bad “luck” with BABIP. You pop up that many balls on the infield, your BABIP is always going to be awful.
That’s why the article focuses on xBABIP. xBABIP takes popups, homers, line drives, grounders into account. Heyward’s xBABIP is way higher than his BABIP.
Except some forms of xBABIP do not take infield flyballs into account, and when you use one that does his xBABIP is .267. He didn’t get unlucky.
Is Heyward injury plagued, not in great shape or just growing into his body? In his time as a pro he has yet to complete a season without going on the DL . Hip, back and shoulder injuries are all troublesome signs to me. Many times these are chronic injuries that people never truly recover from but have to manage long term. Does Heyward fall into this category? In my league I have him in his option year, need to decide to let him play it out or extend him? Opinions?
This isn’t something anyone can know at this point in Heyward’s career. You have to decide for yourself if he just ran into a string of injury bad luck or if he’ll always be brittle.
Including the minors, he’s never had a healthy professional season in his career. Injuries could ruin this guys career but he’s so off the charts talented, that he’s worth the risk.
Mike Stanton is three months younger and should be tied for 23rd on the list above based on his OPS+ in 2010. Plus, he followed that up with an OPS+ of 141 in 2011 at age 21.
J Hey could be great. But watching him here in ATL last year mostly reminded me of Cliff Floyd.
I can’t imagine being able to draft Heyward as a sleeper in any draft. If anything, I think the public is still optimistic about him and will move him into overvalued territory.
“Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver don’t know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year”
Why would anyone assume that is true?
because not everyone reacts to every injury exactly the same way?
Excellent analysis.
While I’m not going to predict a monster year, I see something like .290-28-91-11 and a move up to 5th or 6th in the lineup. The really good stuff happens later.
He spent as much time hitting 5th-7th last year as he did 2nd-4th.
I’m legitimately worried that he can’t square up big league pitches. His 2011 batted-ball profile was hideous: Just 13% line drives, 22% (!) pop-ups and just 33% fly balls. 2010 was better, but not much – 2.03 GB/FB, just 27% fly balls. Maybe we can attribute some of that to shoulder worries but it doesn’t help that he has pretty severe tomahawk motion in his swing that naturally induces a lot of grounders. A guy hitting ground balls isn’t necessarily a “bad” thing but the low line drive rates (15.7% career) and high pop-up rates (15%) is gonna make it really tough to deliver a pretty batting average.
*are* gonna make it really tough…
Word is Chipper and the new hitting coach corrected the swing in the offseason. Let’s see some spring games to see his GB/FB rate.
We’re being offered Napoli for $20 for a $7 Heyward. Seems to good to be true for us but curious what the gang thinks. Love Naps but at that price, and off a career year, his #’s are likely to tighten up a bit…