Buy or Sell: Felix Doubront

Felix Doubront is owned in just 39% of Yahoo! leagues, which seems excessively low given his performance in his first season as a major league starting pitcher. While the 4.24 ERA is not incredibly impressive, Doubront has struck out 22.5% of batters faced, averaging just under a strikeout per inning.

Along with the high strikeout total, he has also won 10 games for the Red Sox, and though wins aren’t a meaningful tool in real life they do matter in fantasy. Playing for a Red Sox team that is getting healthy, the wins should continue to pile up for Doubront.

Looking outside his ERA, his xFIP and SIERA of 3.82 suggest that he should receive better results in the future. Despite my fondness for Doubront and expectancy that his ERA should continue to lower, these should be looked at as quality selling points rather than buying points. Having thrown just 87.2 innings last season, 80 the year before, and 121 the year before that, Doubront may be limited to roughly 160 or so innings, as Fire Brand of the AL estimates. Even if they extend Doubront further, the risk of tiring over excessive innings thrown is certainly real.

In keeper leagues or dynasty formats, I am certainly targeting Doubront as long as the inflationary measures in the league do not diminish his value. If you are out of contention and looking to sell off pieces, grabbing Doubront is definitely a big recommendation. Doubront has a few big selling points that can be used to acquire a player of need, regardless of the type of league you are in. If you are in a league where the other players generally use standard stats to evaluate players, he has the wins and the strikeouts to pique an owner’s interest. In league’s where the owners are a bit more advanced, they can look at his SIERA and xFIP and point to the likelihood of better results for the remainder of the year.

Pay close attention to news about an innings limit, but I would be more willing to speculate that he is on one than to hold onto him and have his season value be reduced to nil.



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Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.


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YanksFanInBeantown
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YanksFanInBeantown

He threw 87.2 innings last season when you include his bullpen stint in the majors.

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