A week ago I analyzed David Freese‘s big postseason and speculated that it would inflate his cost in 2012 drafts. C.J. Wilson, on the other hand, has likely seen his 2012 draft cost move in the opposite direction. Yesterday, Chris Cwik analyzed Wilson’s playoff struggles from a free-agent market standpoint, and today I will examine the impact it may have in fantasy leagues.
In 2010, C.J. Wilson opened the year as a starting pitcher after having never started a game since 2006. It was a bold move for sure, but it ended up working out as he posted a surprising 3.35 ERA. Of course, the luck fairies were not too far behind, helping him out along the way with a sprinkling of a .266 BABIP and 5.3% HR/FB ratio. Despite the impressive surface ERA, his SIERA and xFIP were both above 4.00. Given the huge increase in innings from 2009-2010 and the apparent good fortune Wilson benefited from, he seemed to be one of the easiest bust candidates to identify.
Then 2011 rolled around and Wilson made us stat-mongers look rather foolish. He upped his K%, improved his BB%, continued racking up the ground balls, and saw his SIERA and xFIP drop significantly. The issue now is whether his improved K% and BB% are real. His SwStk%, although better than 2010, is actually below the league average, suggesting a decline in K/9 is coming. His F-Strike% was also below the league average, hinting that his BB/9 is going to creep up above 3.0 again next season.
Now that we have some idea of what this season might lead to for a 2012 projection, it’s finally time to talk about the elephant in the room. As we all know, his 2012 postseason has been just atrocious. Forget about the six home runs allowed in just 26.2 innings for a moment. Most of his other metrics are fairly normal, so the homers are just a small sample size and meaningless fluke. The biggest concern I believe is his 19 walks in those innings. Including the playoffs these past two seasons, Wilson has now thrown a whopping 478.1 innings. During his five previous seasons, he had only pitched 426.0 innings! Isn’t it at all possible that we are witnessing the first signs of burnout? A pitcher tiring from a heavy workload after having been a reliever exclusively since 2006?
For some draft cost context, in 2010, during his first season as a starting pitcher, he went in the reserve round of my standard 12-team mixed auction draft league. A surprisingly strong campaign that year pushed him into the auction portion of the draft in 2011, where he was won for $5. According to Zach Sanders’ end of season player valuation calculator, Wilson actually earned about $19, yielding an excellent return on the lucky owner’s investment. Though I highly doubt anyone in my league would have been ready to pay that much for him in our 2012 draft even if his playoff collapse hadn’t happened, I think the performance will help move his cost into the low teen range. Now I am not one to put much weight at all on small sample sizes, but given Wilson’s unique situation, I would be quite afraid to draft him next year, even at a possible depressed price.