Can Ian Stewart Return from Purgatory?

The Chicago Cubs recently acquired Ian Stewart, ostensibly to man the position vacated by Aramis Ramirez. While those are pretty big shoes to fill, Stewart certainly has some intrigue relative to his fantasy baseball value.

Stewart, 26, seems to be a perennial sleeper on draft lists due to his singular ability to hit the ball out of the park. But both his real-life employer and his fantasy managers grew tired of his inability to make consistent contact, dragging his batting average into the range where he was barely useful — and then in 2011, the wheels fell off and he found himself routinely driving between Colorado Springs and Denver.

Stewart now gets the popular “change of scenery” to attempt to make a fresh start and revive the promise that made him a first round draft pick back in 2003. Will he be able to do it is the big question, of course.

A quick recap on Stewart’s time in the major leagues, Stewart was called up to the Rockies in May of 2008 and was by and large a regular feature in the lineup until the end of 2010. Over those three seasons, Stewart hit .246/.334/.454 with 53 home runs over about 1200 plate appearances. His defense wasn’t great, but his bat showed enough promise to keep him in the lineup.

In 2011, however, he entered the season playing second fiddle to Ty Wigginton and split time early on between pinch hitting and making occasional starts. The uncertainty apparently affected him as he hit .077 in 28 plate appearances between April 1st and April 18th and the club sent him down to AAA, where he subsequently raked.

This yo-yo act went on all season long with him being recalled and sent down four times total and his minor league statistics routinely impressing and his major league results being depressing. On the season, he hit .275/.359/.591 at AAA with 14 home runs in just 195 plate appearances and in the majors, he “hit” .156/.243/.221 with no home runs in 136 plate appearances. Stewart just never got it going at any point during his time in Denver in 2011. As a result, he’ll only be playing in Denver from the opposite dugout for the foreseeable future.

The obvious problem for Stewart is contact. Or lack of contact, that is. He owns a career 27.9% strikeout rate and with a career ISO of .192, he’s just not doing quite enough with the bat to get away with it, in the mold of say, Mark Reynolds, Mike Stanton, or Carlos Pena – all who strikeout about the same rate as Stewart but amass far more home runs. Stewart owns a 72% contact rate, well below league average and while that’s not damning – he’s going to need to rediscover the power stroke that we saw in 2009 in order to be really useful to your fantasy baseball squad.

What I find interesting when looking at Stewart’s splits is that his statistics don’t appear to be seriously inflated by Coors Field. He owns a .243/.337/.430 line at home vs. .229/.307/.427 on the road, but his ISO is actually higher on the road in his career at .198 vs. .186 at home. In fact, in his career, he’s hit 25 home runs at home and 29 on the road (with about 50 additional plate appearances on the road, let’s call it a wash). This is kind of good news and bad news. That his power wasn’t entirely a product of the thin air is good, but that triple slash on the road really isn’t anything to get excited about.

One advantage will be the fact that he’s left handed and Wrigley field plays particularly well for left handed batters. According to StatCorner, relative to home runs, Wrigley rates at 119 where 100 is league neutral. For comparison sake, Coors is 113. Perhaps another advantage is this whole notion of “change of scenery” coupled with being handed a job to lose entering spring.

The reality is Stewart is probably never going to contribute well in the batting average category but he does have some potential to contribute in home runs and RBI for your squad. His value sort of returns to a pre-2009 level where you might not know what’s to come, but you know this kid has great power and great risk. 2012 will probably be the make-or-break year for him because if the change of scenery doesn’t do anything for him, it’s unlikely he’ll ever realize his potential.

As a fantasy owner, Stewart is probably only relevant in league specific formats or deep leagues, and he’s likely one of those balance plays where you have to consider your team strengths and weaknesses. Should you happen to be well in the black on batting average but in desperate need of home runs, Stewart could be a candidate. But if your team is chock full of low batting average types with high risk, you should probably look elsewhere.




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Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.

7 Responses to “Can Ian Stewart Return from Purgatory?”

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  1. j-bones says:

    on a related note, what does this do for Tyler Colvin? Can he be relevant again in Colorado?

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  2. razor says:

    Stewart got hurt in spring training last year and then got yanked around by Jim Tracy. This is a make or break year for him coming up but I still think he’s got some flashes of talent left to show.

    I definitely think his chances are better than Colvin’s due to being able to draw a fair amount of walks at least…and Stewart’s defense has actually been a tad above league average at 3B in his career thus far, so mentioning that it wasn’t great isn’t really the best way to describe that.

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    • Michael Barr says:

      Total Zone Rating puts him slightly below average and UZR puts him slightly above. So I took the middle ground and said he’s not great. Which he isn’t. I didn’t get into the specifics because the main thrust of the post was about his bat, which is what most formats care about.

      I think Colvin should get covered in the coming week, fwiw…

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  3. razor says:

    Ian Stewart has been 4 runs better than average in Total Zone Rating in his 2,613 career innings at 3B, at least according to B-Ref. That’s not “slightly below average”, as you put it. More like slightly above average.

    In addition, his DRS is at +14 for his career at 3B, to go along with his slightly above average UZR numbers. That’s three defensive metrics that have him slightly above average in over 2,600 career innings at 3B.

    Anyway,it’s all good. Like the site well enough…just like it also to be accurate.

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    • Michael Barr says:

      alright, in the post I said Stewart’s defense “wasn’t great.” and I fail to see any evidence to the contrary. His last three seasons at 3b for TZR, 3, -3, -2; UZR 2.8, -2.5, and 2.0. If you’re in a league with defensive categories, you shouldn’t count on much better than average.

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  4. razor says:

    Hehehe, average (or slightly better) is not bad. It’s all about perception. What is obviously true is that none of it will matter if the yahoo doesn’t start yanking some pitches into the cheap seats and continuing to draw some walks because we all know his BA is going to be an issue.

    For what it’s worth, I think he’s a pretty decent risk for the Cubs given the circumstances, and I’m a Rockies fan. I like fantasy well enough, but it’s not just about that for everyone on this site. At least I hope it’s not. I’m a strat player myself.

    Carry on. Keep up the good work. Seriously.

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    • Dave S says:

      Stewart is probably slightly over-valued in strat. I’m not sure his good strat defensive ratings are justified vs actual MLB stats. Plus he’s a LHB at 3b, which is unusual, and helpful.

      In roto, some of his advantages are less pronounced or non-existent.

      I see him as very likely to regress to his previous “useful” level of performance, and would not be surprised if he took a significant step forward in his age 27 season.

      I think he was an excellent “buy-low” pickup by the Cubs.

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