Archive for Busts

I Don’t Get It: Avisail Garcia

As you know, it’s mock draft season. It’s a time to be friendly with our fantasy drafts. Often, we’ll openly discuss how we view certain players or why we’re building a fake roster in a specific way. That extends to congratulating others on “good” picks. Avisail Garcia is one player who always garners a pat on the back. If you can’t tell, I don’t understand the love. I’d like to. I’m open to hearing explanations.

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The 2014 xK% Overachievers, AKA: The Downsiders

Yesterday, I shared with you the names of a group of starting pitchers whose xK% was much higher than his actual K%. So today I’m going to check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, those starters whose xK% was well below their actual K% marks. You might call this group your bust candidates. Well, that is if people are paying for a repeat of their 2014 strikeout rates of course.

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ESPN Home Run Tracker Analysis: The Downsiders

Two years ago, I conducted an exhaustive study of ESPN Home Run Tracker data. At that time, it was the primary tool I used to validate a batter’s power, before we got into the sexy new batted ball distance, and then combined that with SDD and angle. The short story is I found that hitters with an unusually high percentage of “Just Enough” (JE) homers saw their HR/FB rates decline the following year, significantly more than the rest of the player population. On the other hand, those who hit a high percentage of “No Doubt” (ND) homers maintained their HR/FB rate much better than the rest of the group.

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The xHR/FB Rate Overachievers

On Monday, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I devised a year ago. Yesterday, I began my look back at 2014, discussing a selection of hitters whose xHR/FB rates suggest serious HR/FB rate upside this year. Today, I finish my look back, this time at the overachievers. These are the bust candidates, at least when it comes to home runs, assuming of course they sustain similar batted ball distances, average absolute angles and standard deviation of distances (SDD). Since my formula ignores home ballpark which absolutely plays a major role, I will mention it as a possible explanation for such overperformance as warranted.

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Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates According to Steamer, Part II

On Monday I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust candidates. I looked at four guys specifically, but there are a few more names that I think are worth discussing.

Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres

Despite having a 2.55 ERA last year, early drafters seem to recognize that Cashner has some limitations. He’s going 35th among starters, but given his ERA last year and some perceived name value, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was going at least in the top 30. Presumably concerns about his ability to pitch a healthy number of innings and his lack of strikeouts in recent years have tempered Cashner enthusiasm. But according to Steamer, drafters are still too enthused as Cashner comes in 67th in the Steamer rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates According to Steamer

Last week I ran the 2015 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify potential sleepers and busts. This week we’ll do the same with starting pitchers. We’ll start with busts today.

Mat Latos, Miami Marlins

Latos is being drafted as the 45th starting pitcher off the board, which is basically just above the cut line for guys that have to be owned in all shallower mixed leagues. Once you get past the top 50, you’re pretty much in streaming territory. But Steamer doesn’t think he’s anything more than a potential streaming option as he comes in 84th in the projection rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


Bust Candidates According to Steamer

I ran the 2015 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared the results to early ADP data. Below I’ve got a player at each position that the Steamer projections think are unlikely to live up to their draft day price.

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First Five Disappointments: The Early Busts

It’s late August. Real life baseball enters into pennant races and playoff chases. Fantasy baseball is filled with stark reality. I’ll challenge in one league, I’ll flirt with prize money in a couple others. I got killed in a few. I’m sure that sounds familiar. But around this point in the season, I start to look back and marvel at the picks which were clearly steals and the picks that almost singularly destroyed title dreams.

Nobody expects every pick to work out. Injuries are practically unavoidable, and certainly we’ve seen the name Tommy John tossed around aplenty this season. But what confounds me are the players who aren’t obviously hurt — at least inasmuch as their team putting them on the disabled list. And perhaps this is more of a venting of sorts, a cathartic calling-out of players who didn’t miss much time this season and just failed to live up to any reasonable expectation. And for our purposes today, I’m just going to focus on offensive players who were slotted to go in the first five rounds of a standard 12 team snake draft.

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The Starting Pitcher xBABIP Overperformers

Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers who have underperformed their xBABIP marks the most. Today, we’ll check in on the other side of the coin — those starters who are significantly outperforming their xBABIP marks. Whether it’s great defensive support, some mystical ability to consistently induce weak contact or at ‘em balls or good old lady luck, xBABIP thinks these levels are unsustainable.

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The xBABIP Sell List

Yesterday, I used Jeff Zimmerman‘s recently published xBABIP table to identify five trade targets, with the underlying assumption that they have suffered from poor BABIP fortune, which is likely to reverse over the final two months of the season. Today, I will check in on some hitters whose BABIPs are far above their xBABIP marks and could be in for quite the decline over the rest of the season. As such, they are perhaps strong sell candidates.

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