Archive for Projecting X

2014 Pod Projections: Michael Wacha

The Pod Projection train has left the station and is gaining momentum, as today brings another forecast for your reading pleasure. The young Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha dazzled over nine starts and 64.2 innings in his rookie debut and then impressed on the biggest stage in the playoffs, posting a 2.64 ERA in five starts. Not surprisingly, he is quite the target of many a fantasy player, as he’s currently the 17th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, going 92nd overall. Could he possibly deliver that kind of value to his owners?

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2014 Pod Projections: Manny Machado

Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado. In his first full season, the sophomore accumulated a mightily impressive 6.2 WAR. Unfortunately, his season ended with a serious knee injury that required surgery. As a result, he may not be ready for opening day and the uncertainty is reducing his draft cost.

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2014 Pod Projections: Nolan Arenado

After a far too long three week break from publishing my first Pod Projection, it’s time to get back on the saddle. Today I’ll take you through my projection for the young Rockies third baseman, Nolan Arenado. He’s a man who is sure to be considered a sleeper by many, which of course immediately jacks up his price and no longer qualifies him as a sleeper.

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2014 Pod Projections: Masahiro Tanaka

They’re baaaaaack! What better way to open Pod Projections season than with the pitcher the Yankees just made a very rich man, Masahiro Tanaka. This is the third season I have been publishing my projections and once again, my methods have improved and incorporate more data than ever before. Of course, since my process is completely manual, that just means it takes even longer to project each individual player.

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The Nolan Arenado Era Has Begun

When was the last time the Rockies employed a true offensive threat at third base? While Chris Nelson was decent last year, posting a 105 wRC+, we really have to go back to 2007. That was the last year Garrett Atkins provided the team with strong production at the hot corner. But today, the team made a pair of moves that included designating Nelson for assignment and calling up one time hot prospect Nolan Arenado. It’s almost a guarantee that by the time this article is published, he has already been scooped up in every league he could possibly earn value in. Keeper leagues? Long gone. So rather then debate whether he is worth an add, let’s instead discuss how we should expect him to perform this season.

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Evaluating Aroldis Chapman’s Value

With our RotoGraph fantasy rankings being released, I will look at one player who is tough to project, Aroldis Chapman. He is being moved to the starting rotation after being the Reds closer last season. While many pitchers have previously made the move, his high number of strikeouts make find comparables almost impossible. His 2012 15.3 K/9 was the 4th highest K/9 value since 1950 (min 40 IP). I will take a stab at his full time reliever or starter fantasy value.

Projecting Chapman as a reliever is easy, he should be the 2nd rated reliever with Craig Kimbrel being #1. Here are the average draft positions the pair and Jonathan Papelbon at Yahoo!, ESPN and MockDraftCentral.

Name:Yahoo!, ESPN, MDC
Kimbel: 45, 40, 27
Chapman: 66, 77, 133
Papelbon: 78, 79, 78

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2013 Pod Projections: Johnny Cueto

In what is likely my last Pod Projection post of the year (my eBook teaches you how to forecast players yourself!), Johnny Cueto wins the honor of finishing up the series. Cueto has posted sub-3.00 ERAs two years running now, despite all ERA estimators sitting significantly above those marks. Great fortune (skill?) in the three “luck” metrics we analyze is the explanation for his ERA estimator beating ways. Can it continue?

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2013 Pod Projections: Chris Sale

Next stop on the Pod Projections train is last year’s breakout starter Chris Sale, who spent his first season in the White Sox rotation. While I cannot claim credit for expecting him to be that good, I was a huge fan heading into the season. But after a more human second half that included a 4.03 ERA and a significant innings increase, what should we expect as a follow up?

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2013 Pod Projections: Max Scherzer

It’s been over a week since I shared my last Pod Projection, so let’s get back on the saddle. Easily tallying the second highest number of votes was Max Scherzer. Clearly, Scherzer set your heart aflutter when he posted that 2.69 ERA in the second half. Funny, it was just the luck pendulum swinging the other way, rather than any change in skills, as his xFIP was very similar in each half. On to the projection we go.

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2013 Pod Projections: Jeff Samardzija

Your voices have been heard. Tallying six big votes for the next pitcher to be Pod Projected was 2012 breakout starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. I owned him in all of my leagues last year after scooping him up post-draft during spring training and I know how to spell his name without looking it up! Impressive feat, I know. So what will the “Shark” do for an encore?

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