Archive for Stock Watch

A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Reds and Cubs

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Pieces:
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Indians and Tigers
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: White Sox, Royals, Twins
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Angels and A’s
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Astros, Angels, Mariners

A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Braves and Phillies
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Marlins, Mets, Nationals

A Minor Review of 2014: Reds

The Graduate: Billy Hamilton, OF: There is no denying that Hamilton is an exciting player thanks to his top-of-the-scale speed. However, from an offensive standpoint, the shortstop-turned-center-fielder had a modest year in the Majors. A .292 on-base percentage only takes away from Hamilton’s greatest asset (his base running) and he doesn’t make enough consistent contact (117 strikeouts in 152 games). He’s intriguing, but he still has a long way to go to become a key player for the Reds.

The Riser: Ben Lively, RHP: The enigmatic and deceptive Lively had a grand year in the minors, going from 2013 fourth-round prospect to a Double-A hurler in 2014. Despite his average stuff, the right-hander allowed just 117 hits and struck out 171 batters in 151.0 innings. If he keeps this up, he could reach The Show in the second half of 2015.

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A Minor Review of 2014: Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Pieces: A Minor Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles

A Minor Review of 2014: Red Sox

The Graduate: Mookie Betts, IF/OF: Fellow rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. — who won the opening day center-field gig — stumbled at the worst possible time. That misstep allowed Betts to weasel his way into the role and — if his 2014 results are indicative of his future potential — he’s not going to be giving it up any time soon. His pop has been a pleasant surprise.

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A Minor Review of 2014: Orioles, Yankees

Welcome to the annual series called: ‘A Minor Review of 20__” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball managers in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2014: Yankees

The Graduate: Shane Greene, RHP: Greene is proof that scouting is not an exact science. The right-hander flew under the radar for five minor league seasons due to inconsistent results. His stuff took a step forward in 2014 and he could be in the Yankees’ starting rotation for years to come thanks to his combination of velocity, movement and sink on his offerings.

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Quick Looks at Hendricks and Shoemaker

Just a couple of pitchers this week. Between an extended Labor Day weekend and a computer crash, I could only view two guys.

Kyle Hendricks

Why I watched: A rookie with a 1.91 ERA who doesn’t throw over 90 mph

Game Watched: 8/29 vs Cardinals

Game Thoughts
• Man he throws slow. He has one huge set of balls to keep throwing his fastball in their, which he does with confidence. His sinker was 86-87 in the game I watched. He just isn’t going to strikeout many batters as seen by his 15% K%.

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Early 2015 Hitter Projections

With trade deadlines coming up at the end end of the month, we are are going to publish some 2015 hitter projections to help owners make more informed decisions.  (Pitchers maybe later in the weak – I hate dealing with Saves and Wins so it may just be ERA, K, and WHIP). These are projections, just projections … an estimate of how a hitter will perform in 2015. The list should give owners a decent starting point when setting keepers or last minute trades for the next year.

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Updated xBABIP Values

This past offseason, I found an xBABIP equation which correlated better than just BABIP when looking at season 1 to season 2 values . By using the the new Inside Edge data and player speed score, I kept the process  simple yet accurate. I have tweeted out the results a few times during the season, but it is time for another  full updated list.

The Inside Edge data tracks the normal bunts, grounders, fly balls and line drives. In addition to the four groups, they classify the batted ball into weak, medium and hard contract. For the xBABIP equation, I looked at all the line drives and all the hard hit fly balls and grounders. Additionally, speed is a component of getting on base so Bill James’s Speed Score is also added into the calculation.

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Roster Trending 6/3/14: Drop It Like It’s Hot

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the five players most added in CBS Sports leagues. So today of course, I’ll check in on those players being dropped. Often I find the dropped players are better than the added players as fantasy owners love to weight the last two weeks of performance infinitely more than the player’s entire body of work. So let’s see if owners are making the right moves when dropping these guys.

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Roster Trending 6/2/14: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

I’m back with a second edition of roster trending, checking out some of the players who have experienced the biggest ownership spikes in CBS leagues over the last week. These lists are always interesting and offers an insightful glimpse into the mind of the average fantasy owner. So let’s take a gander at who is being added in leagues and determine whether fantasy owners have the right idea.

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Selling Scott Kazmir

Starting pitchers need to be treated like stocks. Perceived value is more important than inherent value. When a stock becomes overvalued compared with your valuation estimate, you sell it, even if the company is a good one. The same goes for pitchers. I’m a fan of Scott Kazmir, think he will remain a good pitcher and solid fantasy option and I continue to be in awe at his career revival. But, it’s time to sell. And that’s precisely what I did yesterday in my local 12-team mixed league.

**Keep in mind that I am typing this before his start last night.

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Examining Changes in Steamer Projections

In the preseason I used Zach Sanders’ method for deriving fantasy value from roto category statistics to see how the Steamer projections valued players from a fantasy perspective. The system essentially compares each payer’s production in each category and assigns standardized values for each player in each category. When you add those numbers up, you get a player’s fantasy value above average. After a quick adjustment for positional scarcity, you’ve got fantasy value above replacement (FVARz). In the preseason this was helpful to get an idea about who might be over or undervalued. Now I’ve taken the Steamer rest of season projections both to see whose value has changed the most in the month or so since the season started and to potentially help with making trades.

Today I want to highlight a few players that were not included in the original Steamer projections. Next week I’ll take a look at the players whose value has increased the most since the start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »