Archive for Stolen Bases

Quick Winter Meetings Winners and Losers

So many things happened. Everyone was traded. Everyone was released. And everyone was signed. It’ll fuel RotoGraphs pieces for weeks to come. You’ll see more in-depth pieces on these guys. But, with the dust settled, it seems like a good time to run all through some of the players that changed addresses, and talk a little bit about how they may have changed their fantasy outlooks for the coming season.

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Upcoming Matchups for Stolen Base Streamers

I covered matchups a couple of weeks ago and last week for a few players who run often and aren’t full-timers but aren’t purely pinch runners. For fantasy baseball players who could use help that would in fact make a difference in their standings in the related category in short time we have left, these possibilities are of interest. The return on this kind of investment is probably not great, as mentioned, but the forecasts can be pretty simple. Again, the greater challenge for a batter is to reach base, not to steal one.

First, there might be some players in your league’s free-agent pool who are more appealing than the streaming plays, however. (Ownership percentages are in parentheses.)

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More Streaming Options for Stolen Bases

I covered matchups last week for some players who run often and aren’t full-timers but aren’t purely pinch runners. For fantasy baseball players who are lagging in the SB category but could gain substantial ground in it in the season’s final few weeks, such possibilities may be appealing. The return on this kind of investment is probably not great, as mentioned, but the forecasts can be pretty simple. Again, the greater challenge for a batter is to reach base, not to steal one.

First, there might be some players in your league’s free-agent pool who are more appealing than the streaming plays, however. (Ownership percentages are in parentheses.)

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Streaming Options for Stolen Bases

If you’re going to stream at any position or for any category, a lot of preparation can go into the dissection of matchups. Fantasy baseball players, in general, may be putting too much stock in matchups for starting pitchers, as Brett Talley may have discovered. If such toil for what is surely the most commonly streamed position might be futile, then it seems rational to question whether it’s even worth the time to do so for something like steals.

But Brett admits that he intuitively questions his results, so we’re going to give it a shot. The return on investment for this kind of homework might be pretty low, regardless. Given the type of data I put together last week to serve as a potential resource for this sort of thing, what goes into a recommendation is pretty simple. As I basically wrote then, the greater challenge for the batter is to reach base, not to pilfer one should he have the opportunity.

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Matching Up, Streaming for Stolen Bases

In a comment on the post of a recent ep of “The Sleeper and the Bust,” quinceleather asked if there’s a way to play matchups for stolen bases for players like Rajai Davis and Ben Revere. Presumably, this would be for the purpose of increasing the efficiency of a roster spot by maximizing the rates of thievery of that brand of one-category contributor in games, series or weeks in which he has advantageous matchups and then using a different type of player (power hitter, an all-around player, a fringe regular) in place of them at other times.

I don’t think I’d take that approach for a full season. But for a particular period, especially at this point, when there are only about four and a half weeks remaining in the regular season, it could certainly, conceivably be helpful. You want to make up ground in steals, and you can afford to use this kind of method to do it. Someone else is more qualified than me to study whether it would prove to be advantageous for an entire campaign. Read the rest of this entry »


Cheap Steals on the Waiver Wire

As injuries start to pile up as we get closer and closer to the middle points of the season, specialists that either hit for power or steal some bases become a bit more attractive when looking on the waiver wire to fill holes.
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Buying Jonathan Villar

I had Jonathan Villar late last season in a league I needed some extra speed in (net stolen bases) and he gave me a solid 10 steals over the last third of the season. I had him in a dynasty league as well so I have been monitoring him for some while. The Astros have had a solid core of shortstops in their system with Villar then on the verge of major league play and Carlos Correa and Nolan Fontana further down the minors behind him. Villar got overshadowed due to Correa’s incredible upside, but he is now becoming a more common name among fantasy circles due to his impressive speed.
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The Stolen Base Aging Curve Depicted

Over the last two years, my fellow FanGraphs authors have discussed the effects of aging on player performance and shared various pretty curves. Eno Sarris introduced some hitter aging curves for both batted ball type distribution and isolated power. Then Bill Petti looked at the various plate discipline metrics. The one skill missing thus far has been speed.

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Emilio Bonifacio Takes Off In Kansas City

Your opinions of Dayton Moore and Ned Yost aside, one of the biggest problems with the Kansas City Royals over the last few years has been that glaring hole at second base. While waiting for prospect Johnny Giavotella to develop, they’ve tried to plug the hole with names like Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt and surprisingly (insert sarcastic eye roll here), it just hasn’t worked. Betancourt is usually capable of playing well for about a month, though the 30 days aren’t necessarily right in a row, Getz is incapable of staying healthy, and Johnny G just hasn’t developed past being a mediocre fielder and all-around lousy hitter at the major league level. When the prospect of making a run at the playoffs in 2013 became more than just a pipe dream, the team made a few minor deals to tweak the roster, one of which was bringing in an underachieving Emilio Bonifacio from Toronto to fill a super-utility role. There was nothing terribly exciting about the move at first and the Royals just seemed to be spinning their wheels, but once they finally handed the second base job over to the diminutive speedster full-time, Bonifacio took off and literally ran away with the job. Read the rest of this entry »


Streaming For Offense: Steals

We stream all the time for pitching stats, but now it’s getting into crunch time for every stat on the board, especially in head-to-head leagues. Let’s look at the schedule this week and try to identify some key players in each category. Oh, and if this isn’t enough, check out the Daily Fantasy Strategy column on the site. If you squint right, you can find what you’re looking for in the Daily Five, even if you’re using it for a different reason.

We’ll start with steals because steals might be the best offensive stat to stream for.

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