Archive for Trade Possibilities

Trading for the Final Month

We’re heading toward the end of August, which means there’s only about a month remaining in the regular season. Though I’m sure many of your league’s trade deadlines have already passed, I’m quite confident that a lot of yours have not, but are certainly coming up soon.

For the first two months or so of the season, I’m all about trading for value. That is, my preseason dollar values guide my trade offers and responses. It’s far too early to determine what my team’s strengths and weaknesses are at that point, so I just want to accumulate as much value as possible.

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Trading Scherzer (aka, the Difficulties of Valuing an Ace)

I own Max Scherzer in three leagues right now. Three different formats, three different sets of rules, and three different places in the standings. And I am working on trading him in not one, but two.

The problem is trying to find the right value. And valuing a guy like Scherzer is not easy.

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What to do with Prince Fielder?

I have been a fairly regular advocate of targeting injured players in keeper and dynasty leagues. To a team competing, they are no better than a prospect, but to a team building for the future, they are far more likely to pan out.

A few weeks ago, Prince Fielder was cut in the original ottoneu league and re-signed for $24. He is a free agent in the FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League. And I am in the midst of trade talks around him in a non-ottoneu dynasty league. And I am really not sure what to make of the Ranger 1B.
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A Less Balanced Country Breakfast

For the past few years, we’ve grown accustomed to a steady diet of high on-base, high-average, moderate power output from Billy Butler. In the early going, 2014 hasn’t been nearly as tasty.

Terrible breakfast puns aside, Butler’s numbers are down across the board, and anyone lining him up in a util slot has got to be concerned. So is Butler a buy low or a guy you should be trying to get rid of?

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Examining Changes in Steamer Projections

In the preseason I used Zach Sanders’ method for deriving fantasy value from roto category statistics to see how the Steamer projections valued players from a fantasy perspective. The system essentially compares each payer’s production in each category and assigns standardized values for each player in each category. When you add those numbers up, you get a player’s fantasy value above average. After a quick adjustment for positional scarcity, you’ve got fantasy value above replacement (FVARz). In the preseason this was helpful to get an idea about who might be over or undervalued. Now I’ve taken the Steamer rest of season projections both to see whose value has changed the most in the month or so since the season started and to potentially help with making trades.

Today I want to highlight a few players that were not included in the original Steamer projections. Next week I’ll take a look at the players whose value has increased the most since the start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Five Players to Sell High

Selling high is generally a misnomer these days. Most of us are in competitive leagues, the kind where all the owners read or write for a reputable site. We learn how to use sites like FanGraphs to do statistical analysis. As a result, it’s really hard to find people to snooker with 15 days of fluky data. However, certain types of players can remain marketable even though everyone is looking for the pitfalls.

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The Quick Emergence of Devin Mesoraco

Before this season began, there was no shortage of advocates for a Devin Mesoraco breakout. The Cincinnati Reds’ backstop caught Eno’s eye last fall in the end-of-season catcher rankings, re-examined. Eno also highlighted the 25-year-old, who was No. 18 on RotoGraphs’ preseason consensus list at the position, in his bold predictions for 2014. Indeed, prior to opening day, Mesoraco translated loosely to “optimism.”

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Risers and Fallers From Week One

They say that patience is a virtue. Besides the ubiquitous “they,” my fellow colleagues here at RotoGraphs have been reminding you of the same. I’m here to remind you of the same. The first five games of the season should influence your expectations for the rest of the season, but only by the very tiniest bit.

With that said, there are very few ways to analyze what we’ve seen to date in a meaningful way. So I’ll pick out a few guys that maybe, actually should be looked at differently.

Alejandro De Aza (up), Dayan Viciedo (down): The story with De Aza was that the White Sox were ready to move on after acquiring Adam Eaton in the offseason. De Aza was considered a very good fourth outfielder behind Eaton, Avisail Garcia and Viciedo. And a crowded first base situation prevents the club from using the spillover at designated hitter.

Thus far, we’ve seen Viciedo spend most of his time on the bench while the hot hitting De Aza continues to take starts. This should resolve into a straight platoon, but De Aza has a defensive advantage in the corners and could hang on as the starter if he continues to mash. More importantly, his at bat projection has probably increased by 200 after this first week. Viciedo’s playing time projection declines proportionally.

Ryan Braun (down): Braun’s thumb issue is back, which could mean less bat control and power. As someone who invested in Braun in two leagues, this is a big bummer.

Billy Hamilton (down): I so very much wanted to gamble on Hamilton this year, but the draft prices were positively ridiculous. I generally saw him go between rounds three and five or for about $20. So far he’s 0-for-12 with a walk and a million strikeouts (six). For someone who was sent home from winter ball because he couldn’t read breaking balls, this is a disturbing start to the season. I’d consider selling.

Casey McGehee (up) and Jeff Baker (up): Look, I don’t like them either, but they’re batting second and cleanup. Considering that they’re free, you could do worse for an injury replacement or spot start.

Carlos Ruiz (up): He’s batting anywhere from second to seventh depending on the day. He also looks like the second half Ruiz, who was eminently rosterable.

Abraham Almonte (up), Corey Hart (down): Almonte is looking like the full time center fielder and leadoff man. Meanwhile, Hart is on part time duty as he continues to recover.

Juan Lagares (up): With Chris Young on the disabled list, Lagares appears to be the everyday center fielder. He also occasionally bats leadoff. Besides those two factors, he’s no great shakes in fantasy.

Marlon Byrd (up): He’s batting cleanup against lefties and fifth against righties. We kind of expected that, but I think his stock dwindled during draft season as the Phillies offense did nothing in Florida.

Justin Smoak (up): Regression looms, but I’m not sure anyone really factored how nice it would be for Smoak to bat with runners on base. The top three of Almonte, Brad Miller, and Robinson Cano is actually pretty formidable. Smoak might have a shot at 100 RBI with full time reps. I know, that sounds crazy.

B.J. Upton (down): We know he’s on a short leash, so a 1-for-12 start to the season with six strikeouts is concerning. I said stay away, but others couldn’t pass up the history of 50 home runs plus steals. It’s too early to panic, but Upton has less wriggle room than most.

Bryce Harper (down), Adam LaRoche (up): We’ll wrap things up with a possible MVP. He’s currently being used out of the six-hole most nights. I don’t know what’s up with that, but it’s happening and it kills his value. Meanwhile, Adam LaRoche is still batting cleanup.

Trading 401

As we get closer to our league trade deadlines, I wanted to follow up with more thoughts on trading after my piece a couple of weeks ago. Then, I talked about throwing player values out the window and trading for needs based on your position in the various statistical categories. Don’t worry about overpaying if you still expect the trade to net you positive points. That concept still applies, probably even more so now, but I also wanted to share some other random thoughts and go more in-depth on that idea.

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Ryan Braun: ottoneu Trade Target

Fantasy owners across the internet were likely cursing at their monitors as they cut loose Ryan Braun this afternoon. Owners in re-draft leagues made the cut already; those in keeper leagues may have a tougher choice on their hands.

But Braun is an interesting case in ottoneu leagues and potentially becomes and intriguing trade target for owners selling this year and building towards 2014.

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