Many players show a power increase in the form of higher HRs, SLG and ISO from one season to the next. Today, I am using MLB batted ball data to see which players showed an actual increase in home run and fly distances from 2010 to 2011. This data helps show if there was an underlying talent change from 2010 to 2011.
To get the values, I used batted ball data that MLB provides. It is the data seen on spray charts during games and on their website. The data is not perfect. It is not close to perfect. Right now, it is the best publicly available batted ball data.
If you want to look at the data for any player or over any time frame, you can goto:
PW: Dave (capital D)
Click on: Angle and Distance of a Hitter’s Batted Balls
Enter in the player and parameters.
Using the data, I took the players with a total of 50 fly balls and home runs in each of 2010 and 2011. Then, I compared the differences. Here are the players with the biggest gains and losses from 2010 to 2011 (link to all the players).
|Name||2010 Avg Distance||2011 Avg Distance||Diff|
Here are my thoughts on some of the players.
Mike Stanton – A 21-year-old power stud in the making. He may be able to carry a team to the HR title. Did I mention he is 21?
Juan Pierre, Ramon Santiago and others – Just because a player increases their batted ball distances, it doesn’t mean they will actually see any meaningful power increase in their stats. They just don’t hit the ball far enough to matter.
Howie Kendrick – He saw a nice increase in power last season with 18 HRs vice 10 in 2010. Also, his ISO was up from 0.128 to 0.179. There seems to be some legitimacy behind his power uptick.
Jayson Werth – He was hitting the ball in 2011 further with worse results than the previous season. Can anyone say, “Park factors.”
Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Morneau and others – The list of players showing a power loss is littered with hitters that played through some kind of injury in 2011. I am not sure which will rebound and by how much in 2012, but they are some great buy low candidates.
Hopefully the preceding data can be another tool in helping find some fantasy gems in 2012. Tomorrow, I will look at some players that changed their batted ball distance mid season.
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