Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko: Waiver Wire
With the addition of a second wild card team for each league, the decision to be a buyer or seller at the trade deadline becomes a bit more difficult, despite it being just two weeks away. For the San Diego Padres, however, the decision is neither difficult nor complicated. Sitting 14 games out of both first place in the NL West and the final wild card slot, the Padres will most definitely be sellers over the next two weeks and while collectively, they can’t seem to put it all together, individually there’s some value to be had. It’s time to bring the jalopy to the chop shop and make some money selling off the parts.
Chase Headley |3B,OF| Ownership: ESPN – 67.3% Yahoo – 52.0%
The latest reports coming from ESPN’s Jim Bowden are that six teams are currently involved in trade discussions with the Padres for Headley who will, in all likelihood, be traded by the July 31st non-waiver deadline. Further speculation has it at the Pirates, Indians, Dodgers, Orioles, Diamondbacks and at least one mystery team as the parties interested, and a move to any one of them should be considered an upgrade. Headley is, more than likely, owned in your deeper leagues, but if you play in any mixed league of 12 teams or fewer, there’s a strong chance that he is available. If he does get dealt to any one of the aforementioned teams, you are already looking at a significant upgrade for Headley based on surrounding lineup and ball park factors.
During his two and a half seasons in the minors, Headley showed solid power potential, posting an ISO north of .245 in both Double and Triple-A, but has been stifled during his time in the majors due to Petco Park and how it saps the power of left-handed hittters. Now granted, Headley is a switch-hitter, but he spends most of his time hitting from the left side and has compiled a career slash line of .272/.358/.401 with 31 home runs, 158 RBI and a 0.46 BB/K which is a far stronger batting line than the one from the right side. For him to go to a ballpark that even plays neutral to lefties would be an improvement and you’re likely to see a nice boost in overall power totals as only 17 of his 46 career home runs have come in San Diego. He won’t suddenly blossom into this incredible power hitter, but over two months time, you’re liable to see enough of a surge that will certainly be of help to your championship run down the stretch.
Jedd Gyorko |2B, 3B| Ownership: ESPN – 0.0% Yahoo – 0.0%
So this would be the corresponding move to a Headley trade and is obviously contingent on a deal getting done. But the fact that Gyorko has been moved off second base and onto third for Triple-A Tuscon is definite foreshadowing of an impending deal. True, Gyorko is a natural second baseman, but with Alexi Amarista and Logan Forsythe still playing well enough to handle duties at the keystone, the club can afford to make this move now and see where it goes over the next two months. If Gyorko’s defense isn’t up to par, the club can easily shift him back in plenty of time for the 2013 season.
Offensively, Gyorko seems ready. He’s moved up through the system fairly quickly, and has shown outstanding plate discipline at each level. Solid walk rates, respectable strikeout rates, fantastic OBP marks all in conjunction with head-turning ISO totals. True, his 7.0% walk rate is the lowest it’s ever been, but so is his strikeout rate, which gives him a BB/K comparable to years past. He’s likely getting a bit of help from the hitter-friendly PCL, so don’t expect him to put up such lofty power numbers, but if he can come up with six to eight home runs here in the second half, he’ll certainly be a solid asset for fantasy owners. Keep tabs on him if you need help at either second or third, depending on his eligibility in some leagues, especially if you’re in a keeper league. Once Gyorko is up, chances are the Padres will have him here to stay.
Gyorko is not a natural second baseman. He’s a natural third baseman who was moved to second due to the organization’s weaknesses there.
I must have misunderstood something I read. Thanks for the input, Zach.
Welcome. He was drafted as a third baseman, and people worried about his defense at the time, but he surprised everyone by being decent there. Earlier this year they moved him to second base to see if he could handle it because the Padres’ organization is so thin at that position, always with the idea that it was temporary.
Curious about how this fantasy trade I made could work IRL: Headley for Garza? Vitters is doing well, but Headley would unquestionably do better than Ian Stewart.
also fyi “Gyroko” in 2nd paragraph.
Aw man. Thanks. No more editing at 6am.
As a Cubs fan, I’ve followed Vitters a while now. He’s not the answer at 3B for the Cubs…he’d be ok for an MLB team with some pop in their lineup, but the Cubs need a 3B with run production that can hit in the middle of the order. Headley would only be a stop-gap option in Chicago, similar to Ian Stewart. I hope Theo doesn’t deal any of our top stars for Headley…he’s overrated.
As for Gyorko…I’ve had him on my fantasy radar since Spring Training, and when I first heard of the Headley trade rumors, picked him up in my dynasty league…so I’m all for a Headley trade. And if not, the Pads could still move him back to the OF to make room for Gyorko.
My 10 WAR over the past 2.5 seasons (out of Petco) and I are offended you’d suggest we are on the same level as Ian Stewart.
hate to break it to you but Gyorko isn’t even better than Headley. and i think you’re forgetting how good headley was in the minors. and he didnt get the luxury of padding his minor league numbers in A-, A, or rookie ball. he just played A+, AA, and AAA. so i took the time to compare both players by their minor league numbers.( i’m being nice and counting gyorko’s A- and A stats. not his rookie ball stats) if you pro-rate their total minor league stats through 575 ab’s this is what you come up with. Gyorko: a .319 avg 101R 40-2B 25HR 108 RBI 62BB 112K 8SB and a .892 OPS. now Headley: 103R 46-2B 2-3B 22HR 93 RBI 88-BB 135K and a .925 OPS. so where exactly do you come up with Gyorko’s a savior and Headley’s a bum. take the time and check Headley’s career stats out at Petco. and than his stats everywhere else. because the everywhere else stats, are all-star calibur stats. Gyorko won’t even be better than the player he’ll be replacing. Headley is the most underrated player in baseball. and just another Padre who’s offensive stats go to die in Petco.
and forgot Headley’s average is .309
Mr. McCue, before you break it to anybody, get your facts right!
Chase Headley played for Eugene & Ft. Wayne (A- & A) at the age of 21. His BA was .264 with 14 2B, 6 HR and 44 RBI’s.
Gyorko played for Eugene & Ft. Wayne (A- & A) at the age of 21. His BA was .302 with 17 2B, 7 HR and 41 RBI’s.
Let’s try consistancy… In college, Headley played 3 years. BA .347, OBP .476, SLG .548, 2B-42, HR-19 & RBI-114.
Gyorko in college, 3 years. BA .404, OBP .474, SLG .674, 2B-73, HR-35 & RBI-178. Won Brooks Wallace award (Best SS in Div. 1)
So, I am not bashing Headley or calling him a bum, but when you look at the stats (facts) Gyorko is CONSISTANTLY better. Has been since college. They both played college at 19, 20 & 21. They both played Eugene & Ft. Wayne at 21. Gyorko has always hit better (college & minors).
Since whatever site you looked at seemed to say Headley didn’t play in the lower stages, go to beaseballreference.com or baseballcube.com. There you will get the entire picture.
So, before you call Gyorko a bum, get your ducks in a row!
Gyorko’s value is mainly in if he plays second base. As a third baseman I don’t see him hitting for enough power to be of great value. If anything, he would be the second coming of Chase Headley. My hope is they keep Headley and bring up Gyorko to play second.
Not enough power for 3rd? How much power do you want? He hit 30 bombs last year and has 21 through 400AB this year. Oh and he’s still just 23!!! Only eight MLB 3Bs hit more than 20 bombs last year, and given what Gyorko has done so far in his career, 20 doesn’t seem like an unreasonable target for him for 2013, and his peripherals suggest he’s going to do it without putting up 150Ks
You can never guarantee HR totals at Petco, but that’s a Padres problem not a Gyorko problem. There are plenty of clubs that would love to have a guy with Gyorko’s minor league number knocking on the door…
Rainmaker – Ask anyone about the SD minor league parks and they’ll all say they are HUGELY hitter friendly! Just look at the numbers put up by their prospects. I’m not saying gyorko has no power, but at best he’ll be a 15-20 homer guy in the big leagues. He could be similar to Kipnis as a secondbaseman (less the steals).
Read the scouting reports on him and you’ll see his numbers are definitely inflated.
MJ – Thanks to the internet, I don’t need to “ask anyone”. The 3-year average park factors for HR for the Tucson Padres, San Antonio Missions, and Lake Elsinore Storm are 0.99, 0.85, and 0.83 respectively (i.e. the parks deflate HRs). In reality, the stats say the SD parks are not really hitter-friendly at all.
I’m open to any argument that’s got more than hearsay behind it…but in the meantime, the kid continues to produce…
Well then you’d be in the minority in believing that his homer run totals are not inflated. Hey, I like him as a prospect. I’m just realistic in believing he’s not going to be a big power guy.
Agreed…Gyorko’s not a 30-HR guy at the MLB level, but he IS an MLB middle-of-the-order run producer. You don’t need a 3B to hit 30-35 bombs if he can hit 20 while scoring 90 R and getting 100 RBI with an OPS of .900…yes, .900 by 2014. But they need to get him up this year and have him play all of 2013 in Petco.
Regardless of the park factors, don’t forget the Padres haven’t had many power-hitting prospects in their system lately. Rizzo is the only serious threat I can immediately think of in the last 3 years. So my contention is that those park factors are more a reflection of the lack of power hitters on their rosters.
Headley is a guy I’d love to see the Yankees get. In that lineup and stadium he could be a 25+ HR guy with a .280/.375/.545 guy.
Headley is wildly underrated and only the best and brightest fantasy owners have the foresight to see this and have added him in their leagues every year. Ok, ok I’m clearly a Headley fan and owner. Of course, I’d welcome a trade out of Pet-cavern and the NL west for a variety of fantasy reasons.
His splits are better on the road but he plays in a division where even the opposing parks aren’t terribly friendly. Yes I know Arizona and Colorado are friendly but LA and San Fran are not. A move to a more hitter friendly park is one thing but even a more friendly division of parks, and lesser pitching, could spark a nice 2nd half run. Certainly not out of the realm of possibility he’d approach 20-20 status if moved. He has a terrific eye on gets on base a bunch. Although not a burner he gets you a surprising amount of steals for a corner man.
I’d love to see a 2-3-4-5 of say Walker, McCutchen, Headley and Alvarez/Jones… Even a move to Camden would be nice. Arizona would certainly help the home splits although he’d still be visiting Petco, the pit in Chavez Ravine and SF..
Also, getting Gyorko a couple of months of AB’s THIS SEASON will only help him in the development stages going forward.
Just some info… you can go to baseballreference.com and compare Gyorko’s minor league stats with (hitting and feilding) with Headley. I would choose Gyorko any day!!! As any baseball fanatic should know, a BALL PLAYER is a BALL PLAYER! Size, weight, build… none of this matters. Gyorko can flat out play and would be an asset wether at 2nd or 3rd.
Examples: Gyorko has hit 226 RBI’s in 296 minor league games, Headley hit 225 in 376 minor league games. Gyorko has scored 211 times and Headley scored 241. Headley played 80 more minor league games than Gyorko has to this point. Gyorko will create more offense (runs) than Headley will. Gyorko’s feilding percentage is .959% and Headley’s is .949%. The defensive range factor for Headley is 2.28 and Gyorko is 3.06. Headley is a great defensive 3rd baseman, but Gyorko is equal defensively and better offensively. Trading Headley would be the best for the Padre’s if they plan to leave Gyorko at 3rd, but keep him and move Gyorko to 2nd….. your not 20+ games behind first place.
RBI’s are greatly influenced by the hitters ahead of you, and runs are greatly influenced by those hitting behind you. Stats to track if you really want to compare and contrast their MiLB numbers would be BB/K ratio, BB%, K%, ISO, and probably BABIP (I use it when looking at boom and bust type seasons to see what’s happening).
Runs and RBI are completely arbitrary and wont tell you enough about a hitter except their ability to make contact with runners in scoring position and the ability of those behind them to do the same.
Agree with Chris
.279/.378/.497/.875, .382 wOBA, 150 wRC+
That is what he is producing on the Road this year after a .330/.399/.465/.864, .376 wOBA, .147 wRC+ on the Road last season.
Use him in a platoon if you like, but his road stats should not be going to waste. Only Wright and Cabrera should be expected to produce better then that, and the strong possibility he gets unleashed thru trade means he is a small investment with constant returns already with the eventual eureka moment about to happen.
Its really sad what PETCO is doing to this guy as his name would probably be known by all if he played in any other park
Not saying Headley is a bad or even average player, he is on the upper side of good or lower side of great, but I believe Gyorko is better. PETCO park might keep Headley from hitting 25+ HR’s, but it dosen’t make him hit .268 and dosen’t effect his feilding. I believe even at PETCO, Gyorko hits .300+.
lol. than you would be mistaken. it’s so funny reading all these comments bashing Headley and saying Gyorko is better.haha. they’re minor league stats( minus Rookie, A-, and Single A…since Headley didn’t play there) are identical, and actually Headley was better. better Runs per AB. more 2B per AB, more BB per AB, higher OBP, higher SLG, and better OPS.
and its so funny hearing all these people say Gyorko’s going to translate all this power to the bigs and hit .300. you obviously don’t know how much Petco affects hitters. it changes their approach, their confidence, their power. Gyorko will hit .280 with 15-20 HR power. which is Chase Headley. and once Headley leaves Petco at the deadline you’re going to see him an annual all-star player. Gyorko isn’t doing anything with the bat that Headley didnt do in the minors. but he’s the hot young stud and Headley’s not the .300 30HR hitter some crazy SD fans thought he was going to be playing half his games in Petco. you’ll find out soon enough how much better Gyorko is.lol…..oh wait, he isn’t.
Mr. McCue, before you LOL or HAHA, get your facts right!
Chase Headley played for Eugene & Ft. Wayne (A- & A) at the age of 21. His BA was .264 with 14 2B, 6 HR and 44 RBI’s.
Gyorko played for Eugene & Ft. Wayne (A- & A) at the age of 21. His BA was .302 with 17 2B, 7 HR and 41 RBI’s.
Let’s try consistancy… In college, Headley played 3 years. BA .347, OBP .476, SLG .548, 2B-42, HR-19 & RBI-114.
Gyorko in college, 3 years. BA .404, OBP .474, SLG .674, 2B-73, HR-35 & RBI-178. Won Brooks Wallace award (Best SS in Div. 1)
So, I am not bashing Headley as I stated earlier, but when you look at the stats (facts) Gyorko is CONSISTANTLY better. Has been since college. They both played college at 19, 20 & 21. They both played Eugene & Ft. Wayne at 21. Gyorko has always hit better (college & minors). So, if Gyorko improves the way Headley has, WATCH OUT!
With my two 3B going down within a couple of weeks of each other in a deep 20 team mixed keeper league, the FA pool was rather thin. I had already picked up Gyorko earlier by dropping Kalish and had hoped that any further injuries to my 3B would come after he got the call.
Well, that didn’t happen and I ended up having to trade Jarrod Parker in order to get Headley, and now I’m crossing my fingers that he gets traded to a bandstand park. The best thing that can happen here is Headley gets traded to a great park/team and does well, Gyorko does well and I can flip at least one of them for a solid SP.