2011 Closer Rankings Update: May
Our preseason reliever rankings were just that, reliever rankings. I’m going to break things up during the season, looking at closers and non-closers separately. There will be some overlap of course, but middle relievers don’t have much value in most leagues, so these rankings are based on the almighty save. As you’d expect, there’s already been a ton of changes since the season began. Guys have lost their jobs, others have gotten hurt, others have come out of (seemingly) nowhere. That’s just the name of the closer’s game. Let’s start off with three familiar names…
Tier One
Heath Bell
Joakim Soria
Brian Wilson
The three names haven’t changed, they’re just in a slightly different order within the tier. Wilson has walked a lot of guys this year (7.15 BB/9), but I’m blaming that on his oblique injury and the lack of a proper Spring Training. I expect him to get back to being himself this month. Bell’s a fantasy monster, and Soria is as solid as ever despite some early hiccups.
Tier Two
Neftali Feliz
Carlos Marmol
Mariano Rivera
Craig Kimbrel
Jonathan Papelbon
Feliz will pitch in a rehab game today and might return to the Rangers by Friday, so his shoulder-related disabled list stint doesn’t appear to be too severe. Rivera’s annual two-blown save week came a little early this year, but he’s still as great as ever. Marmol’s strikeout has dropped almost five full whiffs per nine innings from 2010, but he’s still striking out more than eleven dudes per nine. He’s ridiculous.
Kimbrel jumps into this tier because he’s the clear closer in Atlanta now and his strikeout numbers are through the roof (despite a recent whiff slump). Papelbon looks to be back to his old (sub-2.00 FIP) self, and Bobby Jenks‘ awfulness makes him that much safer in the ninth inning.
Tier Three
Huston Street
Joel Hanrahan
Chris Perez
Francisco Rodriguez
Jordan Walden
Lots of risers in this tier. Hanrahan came out of the gate on fire and has settled in nicely, and I expect his 7.31 K/9 to get back over one per inning in time. Street is still an injury risk, especially after such a heavy early season workload, but playing for a team with one of the best records in the game has its benefits. That last part is surprisingly true for Perez as well, though like Hanrahan I expect his 6.23 K/9 to climb upwards during the summer. K-Rod is K-Rod, and his control problems have settled down after an early season walk fest.
Walden usurped Fernando Rodney in no time, and is a perfect 5-for-5 in save opportunities. Those chances haven’t come as often as the Angels would like, but he’s striking out close to a batter per inning and is keeping men off base (thanks to a .171 BABIP).
Tier Four
Leo Nunez
Jon Rauch
Kyle Farnsworth
John Axford
Brian Fuentes
Jose Valverde
J.J. Putz
Drew Storen
Blue Jays manager John Farrell insists that Rauch and Frank Francisco are co-closers, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Axford drops one tier because of his sketchy performance, which already includes two blown saves and a lot of walks. His job is secure though, especially with Takashi Saito on the shelf for the foreseeable future. Fuentes’ job is safe for the time being as well, ditto Valverde and Putz. Storen has grabbed hold of the ninth inning job from Sean Burnett and run with it; he’s 6-for-6 in save chances. The helium is strong with this one.
Tier Five
Andrew Bailey
Francisco Cordero
Brandon League
Jose Contreras
Matt Capps
Kevin Gregg
Jonathan Broxton
Sergio Santos
David Aardsma
Chris Sale
Ryan Madson
Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas
Vicente Padilla
Matt Thornton
Brad Lidge
Bailey will face live hitters for the first time today, but his return as been delayed on a few occasions already. I expect him to assume the closer’s role once he’s activated off the disabled list, but who knows when that will be. Fuentes is safe for now. Broxton is an absolute mess and probably won’t be closing much longer, which is why Padilla jumped into the rankings. Hong-Chih Kuo‘s injury and early season awfulness help Padilla’s stock as well.
Madson is temporarily filling in for Contreras, who was temporarily filling in for Lidge. Lidge’s injury was significant but he’ll start throwing soon, and I expect him to resume ninth inning duties once healthy based just on loyalty and reputation and all that. Contreras had done well in his absence, but he’s on the shelf for the time being as well. Madson is nice little grab for cheap saves over the next week or two, but I figure he’ll hands the reigns back to Contreras when the time comes. While on the injury subject, might as well mention that it’s looking more and more likely that League will remain the closer even after Aardsma comes off the disabled list. Call it an old fashioned Wally Pipping.
Does anyone know what’s going on in St. Louis? Boggs was the closer for a while but then Salas got a few save opportunities, and now it seems Sanchez is the flavor of the week. I lumped those three together, but I’d rank them Sanchez > Salas > Boggs in terms of save chances right now. That, of course, is subject to chance by the day. Tony LaRussa hates fantasy baseball, what can I say. The White Sox situation is cloudy as well, but Santos has gotten the last three save chances. His teammates don’t give him too many of those though.
Cover Your Eyes
Brandon Lyon
Joe Nathan
Ryan Franklin
This is pretty much self explanatory. It’s a shame to see how far Nathan has fallen, but it’s not completely unsurprising for the other two. Lyon will still give you some saves, but your other stats are going to suffer. Just avoid the other two at all costs, don’t fall victim to nostalgia and hold onto Nathan thinking he’ll turn it around at some point. He might, but he’s just a closer, it’s not worth the wait.
No Kyle Farnsworth?
Yes he IS Kyle Farnsworth, but he’s also been nails so fair this year. (WHIP and ERA under 1, 5/6 in save opps.)
My bad, I omitted him by accident. Fixed now.
Farnsworth has got to be added to the rankings. An oversight
My mistake – thanks
Rauch is way too high I think. Not sure how much longer that will be his job, his FIP is over 6 and his K/BB is 1.75.
I mean, would you really consider trading a Putz, Valverde, Axford for a guy with shaky peripherals and a more talented an highly paid player who beat him out for the job in spring training now healthy?
I don’t think Rauch keeps the job much longer either. In a 13 team league I am in that uses FAAB, I had him and Francisco and decided to drop Rauch now so that someone would overpay to get him. Someone paid $20 so I guess that strategy worked (unless I’m wrong about Rauch).
What’s with the hate on leo nunez? He’s done nothing this year but help prove that his performance last year was no fluke. I’d put him no less then 2nd or 3rd in the 3rd tier
“Tony LaRussa hates fantasy baseball.” That’s ironic considering he’s credited with inventing the version of the closer you’re analyzing here.
Don’t expect Aardsma to supplant League as closer any time soon. Aardsma is pitching horrible in AAA with a 15+ ERA, and has recently been shut down for arm stiffness, we’ll see how he responds. Meanwhile, League has been money. 8 for 8 in save opportunities, 0.92 WHIP. Even when Aardsma returns, I don’t think Wedge would give him the reigns over League especially if the Ms are playing around .500 ball.
Yeah, considering the team has no financial commitment to either of them past this year, I could easily see that become a Rauch/Francisco type of situation where League keeps the job until he drops a save or two.
I do realize the irony of citing Rauch as a positive example for closer value after saying he was rated a tier to high a few comments above.
On the other hand – he really can’t push Aardsma any lower, but League should also be on the list. Probably one spot below Aardsma, because I think I still would prefer Aardsma to League if given the trade offer straight up.
My bad, League is on the list, a few spots higher than Aardsma, which I have no problem with. If only I could attend a “Center For Children Who Can’t Read Good And Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too.”
Some of the motivation for making Aardsma the closer will come from that the Mariners want him to be a valuable chip for a contender at the trade deadline. I know it will be hard if he continues to struggle, but just keep that in mind.
Why is Axford moving down?
He’s been shaky so far, also has no track record. If he’d pitched well, I’d have moved him up.
Sources reporting Broxton is shut down with elbow pain.. not good for him.
Look for this to end very badly for Broxton.
don’t you think you are short-changing Valverde quite a bit? I would put him at the back end of Tier 3, he certainly shouldn’t be behind mediocre peripheral fill-ins like Rauch and Fuentes or an unknown only-was-good-one-year guy like Axford.
Valverde is an established closer, with a long track record of high K’s, good rate stats, etc.
Broxton owner here. In the words of Hawk Harrelson, “He Gone”.
Storen or Walden? Both are available in my league (points league).
OK I’ll throw out the important factors I identify between Drew Storen and Jordan Walden:
Team win %: Walden
Save friendly manager: Walden
Job security: even
Raw pitching ability: Storen
Sabre-stats through May 4: Walden~~ (higher K% but also BB/9, both have low BABIP and LOB%)
Ok thanks guys :) Maybe I just needed to list things to figure this out – Jordan Walden it is.
Who is likely to take over for Lyon if he loses his job?
Melancon.
Yeah – a little help over here please about a possible Lyons replacement?
Certainly no obvious candidate. Fulchino pitches the 8th but he’s pretty meh. Wilton Lopez is just off the DL this week. Mark Melancon has some folks excited but he’s been more 6th-7th inn. Lopez was the talk at the beginning of the season. Hard to say.
Mike, why isn’t Mo in the top tier?
Because he’s 42 years old and has been dealing with nagging injuries the last 2-3 years.
No love for Brandon League? Tier 5? Really?? Have you seen him THIS year?