Crowdsourcing Results: Darvish’s Ottoneu Points

Last week we asked you folks to help give us an idea of Yu Darvish‘s expected production in ottoneu points leagues during the 2012 season, and 135 of you were kind enough to response. It’s not the 560 responses we got for the 5×5 stats, but it’s more than enough for me. I blame it on the difference in popularity between the two scoring formats.

As a reminder, the points scoring is ottoneu is based on linear weights. You can review the point values and derivations here. The table after the jump shows the average crowdsourcing result for stat (rounded off) and the corresponding point value.

Crowdsourcing Results Ottoneu Point Values
IP 181.0 1339.4
K 167 334
H 154 -354.2
BB 45 -135
HBP 6 -18
HR 19 -233.7
SV 0 0
HD 0 0
Total 932.5
IP per 100 Points 19.4

Pitchers who produced similar total point values last year include Ervin Santana (921.3), Ricky Nolasco (925.0), Jaime Garcia (934.3), and Mat Latos (944.7). On a rate basis (IP per 100 Points), some similar pitchers last year were Cory Luebke (19.2), Brandon McCarthy (19.3), CC Sabathia (19.4), Matt Cain (19.5), and Matt Garza (19.7). The difference there is innings; Sabathia and Cain are expected to throw 40-50 innings more than Darvish based on the crowdsourcing results.

Nine-hundred point pitchers generally go for north of $20 on auction day (with a $400 budget for 40 players), though the slam dunk guys (Sabathia, Cain, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, etc.) will usually go for more than $30. Those ten extra dollars theoretically buy some certainty. We’ll look at Darvish’s expected draft round and auction value next.




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Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.


3 Responses to “Crowdsourcing Results: Darvish’s Ottoneu Points”

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  1. LuckyStrikes says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    This was helpful. Would be interesting to see now with Cespedes…

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  2. Colin says:

    It is hard to believe he will be THAT successful right away. However, his stats were nintendo like last season in the Japanese league.

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    • Colin says:

      I should add I trust his k’s more than his low BB rate. Colby Lewis and even Daisuke had very very low walk rates in the J league but as we have seen that might be a bit more reflective of the batters. However neither could K guys like Darvish so I would expect that to translate better. He could be a legit 8-10 k/9 guy without question.

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