Crowdsourcing Results: Hellickson and Garza

Before we get to today’s results, I thought I’d ask you if you’d please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

Matt Garza (xADP, You)
My vote: 8, 10
Average: 9.7, 11.7
Median: 10, 12
Std Dev: 2.9, 4.3

While we may not have perfectly agreed on where Garza is going to be drafted, or even when we would be willing to take him, we did agree on one thing: Garza is going to be overvalued and taken about two rounds before we would be willing to pull the trigger. I think the perception of his move out of the AL East and into the National League will help propel his ADP, but I could very well be wrong. I always find it interesting to look at these results, because – at least in this case – it can make you realize that most of us aren’t expecting to have Garza on our rosters in 2011, which is a strange thought to have echoed throughout the sample.

Jeremy Hellickson (xADP, You)
My vote: 15, 13
Average: 13.3, 12.3
Median: 13, 12
Std Dev: 4.2, 4.1

Trying to pinpoint a prospect’s numbers are tough enough, let along trying to accurately predict where they will be drafted. However, you guys had a pretty good idea when it came to Hellickson, even if I thought he’d be taken a little later. To be fair, my thinking may be biased based on what I’ve seen in “expert” mock drafts, and I’m going to put my faith in you guys. While I would be willing to take Hellickson in the 13th round, my projections don’t indicate that he’ll be worth that pick. But, when you can get a young stud like Hellickson who has the chance to be great, it’s worth the risk. I have a feeling this may be the sentiment for a good number of owners, as it seems some weigh pure upside far more than others.

Please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

6 Responses to “Crowdsourcing Results: Hellickson and Garza”

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  1. Big Jgke says:

    Did Jose Bautista have one of these yet?

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  2. Dan says:

    Grady Sizemore?

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  3. SF 55 for life says:

    where would you take him in a keeper draft?

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  4. William says:

    I don’t think Hellickson gets 80 LOB% and 13 LD% over a full year, nor a BB% better than the rest of his past two seasons in the minors, so I’m not taking him anywhere near there. He does seem to have wicked stuff, if such a small pitchFX sample size can be trusted (high FA, strong V-mov CH with a sharp vel. differential between the two, and a high H-mov curve), but he is a rookie not named Strasburg, with all the pitch count limitations included.

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  5. William says:

    I’d like to see some UD-potential guys whom others would readily take. For example, with SPs, how about Jordan Zimmermann, Jhoulys Chacin, and Travis Wood? Or even Kuo … would they draft him, or think he’d get drafted? (I hope not… I will).

    For big names, have you done Tulo? I know he seems as though he’d have no variation, but I’d actually consider him for more money than H. Ram.

    Wainwright is all over the map between different mock-draft sites and expert/non-expert leagues. And what about “win” SPs, when most think wins can’t be predicted, like CC and Lester?

    Derek Jeter?



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  6. William says:

    Last: what about posting some questionable results from MockDraftCentral and see what the public thinks? I would love to prepare based off of there numbers, but sense that I’ll be screwed if I think others will follow certain of their suggested trends…

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