Here are the results from this week’s groundbreaking editions of ADP Crowdsourcing, as it was our first time trying out a closer, a player who missed all of 2010, and a top-25 talent.
My vote: 8
Std Dev: 4
So, none of us really have much of an idea where Nathan will go, do we? If there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that Nathan would go somewhere around the seventh round if he were healthy, maybe even earlier if a closer run gets going. But, we just don’t know how he’ll respond coming back from his injury, at least not yet. If we did this with Nathan in spring training, when we have some sort of read on his status, our results would probably be very different. If he looks healthy, an 11th round selection is obviously a steal. But if he’s healthy, you aren’t going to get him in the 11th, are you? Just because of the inherent risk involved, I’m probably not going to draft Nathan this year, but if I did, it’d be in the 10-12 range.
My vote: 2
Std Dev: 1.05
Reader “Jason B” brought up a very good point in the comments on Wednesday, wondering why I didn’t group the selections for A-Rod by pick number rather than round number. I probably should have, but I did want to see how the format worked with an early round talent. I’ll probably try an early round guy soon, and will try out pick number instead of round. But, the old method held up fine, showing that A-Rod will likely go in the early second round, and he probably won’t fall further than the early third. I think he’s a great 1-2 turn candidate this year, and I’d be more than happy to take him there.
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