Crowdsourcing Results: Posey and Santana

In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.

Buster Posey
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3

The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.

Carlos Santana
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4

Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

10 Responses to “Crowdsourcing Results: Posey and Santana”

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  1. DrBGiantsfan says:

    Once you get past Mauer, McCann, Posey and VMart, catcher kind of drops off a cliff. The difference between #40 and #50 is less than 1 turn through the draft. If you stubbornly wait until #50 or later, you run the risk of being the Angels of your fantasy league.

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    • Jake in Columbus says:

      Because you could still end up with a 20 HR guy in Napoli?

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      • DrBGiantsfan says:

        Yeah, and a lot of zeros because he doesn’t play every day. If you think Napoli is comparable to Mauer, McCann, Posey and VMart, go ahead and draft him. Me? I’d rather overdraft for one of the elites and find value at other positions later in the draft.

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  2. Dan M says:

    Why does everyone forget Soto? Can we do one of these for Soto?

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    • phoenix2042 says:

      yea seriously. he puts up legit numbers every year and no one ever mentions him alongside vmart or santana or posey. hes no mccann or maur, but he is good.

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  3. kwaz says:

    is it me or do these std deviations seem unreasonably high?

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    • Jake in Columbus says:

      If you’d prefer to wait until late in a draft to take a catcher (or punt the position and scour waivers), you might vote 100 and contribute to those SDs.

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    • Bas says:

      It would be nice to know how many voted. Small sample sizes may lead to high standard deviations.

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  4. Tom Thumb says:

    Personally, I think Santana is well worth the risk. He could possibly put up great HR totals, huge OPS and even some steals. Okay, there is some risk, but in the 8th round, I will take it. Catcher is fickle and I am not a believer in using an early pick on one. Between Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Santana and Miguel Olivo I had much better production than could be expected for not drafting a catcher until round 19 or something. Plus, McCann doesn’t play everyday either so that is a poor example.

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  5. griffstees says:

    10 Team Head to Head Weekly (hits, runs, rbi, hr, avg, steals) * (wins, loss, era, whip, saves, k’s)

    All the starting positions for bats (catcher-3rd + 3 OF’s) plus on utility.
    Four starting pitching slots and two relief (you must start 4 starters per week)

    Five bench spots.

    With the roster settings as they are, top tier talent really makes the difference.

    I am keeping (Prince, Stanton, Lester, Ubaldo, and Grienke) Nelson Cruz, Dunn, Panda didnt make the cut as of now.

    I spent today looking at the most likely young superstar possible players that will be available in the draft. I have the fourth pick in a non-snake draft, plus the 6th overall that i picked up from a trade.

    Here’s my list of must have youth, who else should be on it.

    Jay Bruce 23 years
    Matt Kemp 26 years
    Billy Butler 24 years
    Matt Wieters 24 years
    Justin Upton (prob getting kept) 23 years
    Carlos Santana 24 years
    Strasburgh 22 years
    P Alvarez 23 years
    Adam Jones 25 years
    Gardner 27 years
    D Stubbs 26 years
    Neil Walker 25 years
    Ike Davis 23 years
    Jose Tabata 22 years
    Starlin Castro 20 years
    Colvin 25 years.

    Top 3 (not including upton)
    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Carlos Santana
    3. Alvarez

    Starlin Castro and Strasburgh follow to finish the top 5.

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