In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3
The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4
Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.