Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/15 – For Draftstreet

Chris Sale struck out 14 Houston Astros yesterday and took the loss. He gave up just two runs in eight innings and, because it’s worth repeating, he struck out 14 batters. And he took the loss. Ugh.

So is this a lesson that we should throw up our hands at pitcher wins? Well, yeah, that’s been the case for some time. But they matter in fantasy, particularly in daily leagues – in DraftStreet, a win is worth 1.5 points and a loss is worth -0.75. Sale was a huge point getter last night, but he could have got an additional 2.25 if the Sox could, you know, hit.

So what’s a daily leaguer to do? You could avoid pitchers on bad teams altogether, skipping White Sox pitchers, Angels pitchers, Astros pitchers? No. You just can’t limit your player pool like that. And a guy like Sale was still worth a heck of a lot.

Sale is a good example that you can’t budget for wins (if you’re in a double-up style format, where you’re aiming for XX number of points and not just trying to aim for the “most”). But wins and losses are pretty variable – even Joe Blanton’s got one!

The moral of the story is that it’s tough to predict wins and losses, so it doesn’t make sense to budget for them or to chase or avoid match-ups just based on the W.

The Daily Five
Wade Miley -$9,435
I’m not a big Miley fan in general, but there are very few bargain pitchers on the bump today, and Miley comes cheap. He also comes in San Diego, a park that is friendly to pitchers, and with cold temperatures, which help supress runs. Miley’s FIP and xFIP are 4.25 and 4.04, respectively, so there’s hope that he’s not as bad as his 4.89 ERA, too. The HR/FB rate has been unfriendly but he does a great job keeping the ball out of the air – the low fly ball rate and the date in Petco should be enough together to extinguish any homer potential and keep his ratios in check.

Addison Reed – $2,881
I usually don’t recommend a reliever here but hey, most daily formats require them, so why not take a stab today. Reed hasn’t pitched since the 11th after pitching four straight days, so he’s getting into the territory where he might get an inning regardless of the game situation, just to get him work. Add in the strikeout-friendly Astros match-up and Reed is as good a bet as any reliever to swoop in and deliver at least a strikeout or two today.

Tyler Colvin – $9,400
Love me some Tyler Colvin. The lefty faces Jonathan Pettibone, who surrenders a league-average amount of fly balls, a bad strategy at Coors Field with 80-degree heat. Isolated showers are expected but the risk of a cancellation is pretty low. Instead, it will be Colvin bringing the thunder (see what I did there?).

Chris Davis – $9,144
I know it’s a good chunk of the budget and he strikes out a fair amount, raising the bar for a break-even performance, but Davis is only fifth in first baseman pricing and he’s, well, the best. He also faces John Lackey, who is the John Lackey-est, and the game is expected to be very warm with a wind blowing to right, helping the lefty slugger.

Daniel Nava – $9,400
Nava has the same set-up as Davis in environmental terms and also draws Sweaty Freddy Garcia. Nava has been pounding righties all year long and will hit from the left side, further improving his environmental set-up. It’s a good chunk of change to invest in one game between these two guys but there’s a zero percent chance of rain, limiting your downside risk. There’s also a zero percent chance a Lackey-Garcia match-up ends up being a pitcher’s duel.

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

9 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/15 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. thalooch says:

    Miley has been a nightmare, and the Padres have the 7th best wRC+ vs LHP in the league.

    I’d rather take Lucas Harrell vs that anemic White Sox offense

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. sailenac says:

    You better hope Nava hits a PH GS in the bottom of the 11th

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Blake Murphy says:

      Yuuup that sucked. Sucks sometimes having these things up for 10am – trade-off of giving readers ample time to read/react but less certainty in line-ups. Unless there’s an injury I was unaware of, not sure why Nava didn’t get the nod.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • thalooch says:

        you gotta check the lineups at baseballpress.com before they lock

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Blake Murphy says:

        Sure, but that’s for the readers only. It would be uncool for me to spec on guys and then double back to change the article, I’ve gotta lock these in by 10.

        BTW really appreciate all the comments/discussion on these lately, looch.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Blake Murphy says:

        Also, screw Gregorious, man. Miley was cruising until that error and has completely unravelled now. Hopefully a few will be Berts.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. thalooch says:

    ah come on, as i remember it, it was the 1st error of the inning. Gregorious has been awesome defensively for the dbacks, at least to the naked eye. Just cause all 5 runs that inning were unearned does not mean Miley had nothing to do with it. Good pitcher’s pickup their teammates and bear down. It happens to all pitchers.

    He did pitch better, but not well enough to where I would use him in dailies

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Blake Murphy says:

      I didn’t say that tho – I said he was pitching well up to that point and then unraveled. The fact that none of those 5 runs were earned saved me – he pitched like garbage once men got on.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. thalooch says:

    what i mean when i say “check lineups”, I mean that you need to check lineups before YOUR Draftstreet lineup locks. Not talking about the article. Just cause you plug a guy doesn’t mean you have to lose your money playing said guy when he’s not in the lineup.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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