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Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/22 – For Draftstreet

Posted By Blake Murphy On June 22, 2013 @ 10:15 am In Daily Fantasy Update | 3 Comments

I’ve gotta do things a bit different today. I’m gone for the weekend so I’m writing this on Friday morning, which means two things: I am dealing with way less certainty surrounding weather and line-ups, and I’m getting prices off of a file I believe to be correct from DraftStreet but really don’t know.

I realize that most daily leaguers don’t have the option to set a daily roster in advance (for the record, I don’t either, and am just making recommendations and not playing this weekend), but the following tips will hold for those times you can manage to set a line-up late the night before or early the day of, without the benefit of waiting for less volatile weather or line-up guess work.

And that word is key in times like this – volatility.


We’re all lucky that a man like Bill Petti works so hard for us to develop cool things like hitter volatility ratings. Bill is a saint, and a very smart dude. For times when you can’t analyze the day’s market as thoroughly, his volatility score can be a big help.

Of course, maybe you’re crazy and want to go super-volatile to “swing for the fences” with the upside plays, but in the more likely case you’re probably playing a lower stakes game in a situation like the one I’m facing today. So you may do what I do, choose a double-up format where the bar for pay-out is lower, and try and find some value plays with a low volatility rating. Below are the 10 least and 10 most volatile hitters in baseball through June 16.

vol low10

vol high10

Yup, it’s hard to be “consistent” when your baseline is twice as good as anyone else’s.

The Daily Five

Nate McLouth – $9,473
I wanted to go with Chris Davis here, volatility be damned, but he’s gonna cost you almost 13% of your budget. Because he’s facing Chien-Ming Wang, who feeds lefties and generally just isn’t very good anymore, I feel like we need an “Oriole lefty placeholder.” Rogers Centre is a friendly park, too, if you need further convincing. McLouth has some pop in his bat still and, as long as he gets on base, is a strong candidate to run against “gotta throw from my knees, bro” J.P. Arencibia.

Nick Swisher – $6,224
There’s no weather data available for me yet but you don’t need it, it’s P.J. Walters on the bump and he’s gotta be just about out of magic pixie dust. Swisher has a deflated price because of some struggles of late, but a guy like Walters to groove him 89 MPH heat over the plate is a good remedy.

Salvador Perez – $7,155
Low volatility score, 18MPH wind blowing out from home plate, and 90-degree game time temperature? Jose Quintana is fine, but he’s not fine enough to bypass a fair priced catcher with a decentfloor.

Corey Kluber – $13,241
I’m all-in on Kluber of late in fantasy, and the Twins don’t scare me off at all. He’s got a great strikeout rate, limits the walks and doesn’t let too many balls get put in the air. The Twins are an average offense, sure, but unless the weather data comes in with a monster wind blowing out to right, I’m not backing off my latest “flag player.”

Dan Straily – $10,277
Another “flag player” of mine, Straily gets a cool temperature, hardly a breeze, and the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. You might find a better value out there (the sheet I’m using isn’t sortable, so I don’t have the benefit of a price list, really), but this looks like a good price to me. Yes, Straily has been really inconsistent, and got touched up in Seattle back in May, but I’m a firm believe in the player and the stuff.

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.


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