Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/24/13 – For Draftstreet

Ugh. Four games. Options are obviously limited today. And once you start looking at prices and match ups, the pool of available players shrinks a little more. For example, Cliff Lee will cost you a ridiculous $20,543 today. Paying that price really makes it hard to fill out a lineup full of guys who will actually play today. And Lee’s match up isn’t even that great. The Padres have the 5th best wRC+ against left handed pitching and are only 17th in K% vs. LHP. In fact, there aren’t many good match ups to be found for starters today. Here is a chart showing each probable starter along with the wRC+ and K% for their opponent against pitchers of the same handedness.

Opponent Opponent wRC+ Opponent K%
Cliff Lee at SD 109 19.8%
Madison Bumgarner at LAD 102 16.4%
Hyun-Jin Ryu SF 102 16.6%
Jeremy Hellcikson TOR 106 19.6%
Eric Stults PHI 93 22.1%
Ubaldo Jimenez at BAL 113 17.5%
Esmil Rogers at TB 106 18.0%
Zach Britton CLE 104 23.3%

For context, the league average K% is 19.9% and the league has a wRC+ of 97. We’ve got two strikeout rates above 19.9% and one wRC+ below 97. One of those high strikeout rates comes from the Indians who are facing Zach Britton and his career 4.78 ERA. He’s not an option. That leaves one starter with a good match up and six others with bad match ups. Again, Lee’s price is prohibitive, so that leaves only five other options.

The Daily Five

Eric Stults, $12,889 – This is the easy choice of the day. The Phillies are below average in both of the categories discussed above.

Madison Bumgarner, $17,810 – The match up is obviously only half of the input in this equation. The quality of the actual starter you’re picking is clearly an important factor. And Bumgarner has been unsurprisingly great this year. He’s got a 3.25 ERA (3.40 SIERA), 1.01 WHIP, and his K% and SwStr% are at all time highs. He’s expensive, but not more expensive than the best pitchers tend to be on normal days.

Jeremy Hellickson, $10,640 – Given the lack of options at starter, I considered recommending a closer. The problem is that I’ve never done it, and it just seems like a terrible idea trying to gamble on a save, especially on a day with no clear favorite in any game. Ryu has been better than Hellickson this year, but they’ve been more similar than you might think. Ryu has a 3.68 SIERA; Hellickson has a 3.93 SIERA. Ryu’s K-BB is 13.9; Hellickson’s K-BB is 13.5. Because picking Ryu would take the potential number of wins I could get from three to two and because Hellickson is about $4,000 cheaper, Hellickson seemed like the better pick.

Munenori Kawasaki, $6,968 – There are just no good options at shortstop today. The most expensive options are J.J. Hardy and Mike Aviles, but both of them are right-handers facing right-handers. Brandon Crawford and Yunel Escobar will also be facing pitchers of the same handedness, and Jimmy Rollins will be hitting from the right side, which has been his weaker side for the last couple of years. Kawasaki is the only one with a good platoon match up. Hopefully he’ll just take Hellickson for a few hits and get his fantasy points on the base paths.

Melky Cabrera, $4,997 – Melky has really struggled this year and is hitting just .220 in his last 50 at-bats. But if you’re looking for a cheap option, this is about as cheap as it will get today for a guy you can be fairly certain will play. It’s a small sample, but Melky has been much better against right-handers this year. Maybe he’ll get a couple of hits off Hellboy as well. Two hits for Menenori, two hits for Melky, zero hits allowed to the rest of the Jays. That would be nice.

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12 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/24/13 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. Hunterfan says:

    I’d still play Melky for that price, but its worth noting he is usually replaced by Rajai Davis in the 7th, depriving Melky of his las AB.

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  2. Charles H says:

    Melky isn’t himself this year or is he? Why not use Torres, in the same price range, who leads off vs. Lefties in Pagan’s absence and is battling .500 against Ryu?

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  3. thalooch says:

    I don’t think there’s any way you can not take Jose Bautista at 8k.

    Other than 2011, last 4 years his platoon splits are rather pronounced. While I’m not a fan of BvP, I know for a fact he will have a high ownership % today, and the question is, do you want to risk not having him?

    I’m seeing the Rays vs RHP as wRC+ of 104. Did it really drop 2 pts in one day?

    There’s nothing wrong with taking a RP. Yeah its a gamble that u get zero pts, but it’s better than getting negative pts. You can also hedge your bet.
    Say you’re taking Stults, which you are, but you don’t REALLY think that Stults is gonna beat Cliff Lee, do you? No, you don’t. So, take Papelbon. We can make a reasonable estimation that this game will be rather low scoring, so if the Phillies are winning, Papelbon should come into the game.

    Same applies with Bum + Jansen. If neither closer gets into the game, it is somewhat likely that your starting pitcher is going to win. In the event your starting pitcher is going to take a loss, then you’re mitigating that negative pts for a loss with positive points from a save (assuming they get the job done)

    You’re also saving a ton of cap space for better hitters. I mean Hellickson could easily post negative pts, or very few pts in yet another shaky outing, especially vs the red hot blue jays.

    If history means anything though, the Blue Jays streak *should* end today though, as Hellickson has had success vs the Blue Jays and for the last 3.5 years the Rays have dominated the Blue Jays, especially at home (22-9)

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  4. SleepNowInTheFire says:

    What about Esmil Rogers? He is the cheap option and shouldn’t be that terrible, right?

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    • thalooch says:

      yeah Rogers has been very solid since joining the rotation, although two of those outings were against an ice cold Rangers team. Still a decent risk/reward option on a slow night like tonight

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  5. Charles H says:

    Melky has 2 hrs in 200 plus at bats against righties. Last I checked they award points for other things as well.

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    • thalooch says:

      Wholeheartedly agree on Melky. He’s not particularly strikeout prone, leads off. If he goes 1 for 4 with a run scored I think we’d all be happy with that for the price. Sac bunts are also rewarded.

      Maybe he’ll even pickup his third SB of the year.

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    • chris says:

      Of course they do. But the most points are given for home runs, therefore, (IMO) it makes sense to get in good vs homer prone pitchers.

      To put it another way,I think melkys point ceiling tonight is way higher. He is facing a worse pitcher in a better (albeit not great) ballpark.

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  6. chris says:

    It’s not all that relevant to me in either case, I’m doubling down on the power nighties in Baltimore tonight

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  7. chris says:

    lol *rigties*

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  8. Charles H says:

    Hellickson is hardly homer prone with 0.59 hr/9 in his last 5 starts.

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