Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/5/13 – With a Special For Draftstreet

If you play in daily leagues, you don’t need me to tell you how important starting lineups are. Annoying, I’ve gotten burned not once, but twice, over the last week, catching Alex Rios and Andrew McCutchen on days they weren’t playing after setting my lineup around noon. I don’t care how good the rest of your lineup is, a guy sitting on the bench is a big goose egg. If you’re like me, and set your Draftstreet lineups early in the morning; be sure to log back in around 6 PM (or in the next couple of hours today!) to make sure the guys you are paying for will see the field. For those who play in leagues with daily moves and game caps, it’s also a wise strategy to physically move guys out of the lineup who aren’t starting. Three pinch hit AB’s from your LF still count as three whole games on the stat sheet. Friendly reminder: be sure to click on “scores” on the Fangraphs menu bar for starting lineups essentially as soon as they are posted. Here’s the link for today.

Weather update: Looks to be cold and dreary in Milwaukee. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the last weather model I peeked at is saying 10-15 mph easterly winds — that is in from left field. Ouch. Devalue hitters by a few bucks and bump pitchers up a couple notches. On the flip side, the forecast is calling for sunny skies and temps in the lower 90’s in Houston. Just like in Milwaukee (only the reverse), it only gets better, since the wind is currently progged to be blowing straight out at game time. Giddy up, Chris Davis!

The Daily Five

Chris Johnson -$4,853

You know who is the third best hitter by wOBA against left-handed pitchers this year? If you guessed Chris Johnson, you either A) correctly read two lines up, B) are a diehard Braves fan, or C) are mixing in too many early season fantasy football mocks. OK, he’s getting a bit too much BABIP love, but still, he’s a nice option at that price.

Joey Votto – $10,625

10k isn’t cheap, but sometimes you need to ante up. Votto continues to tear up pitching while also walking enough to cause his OBP to occasionally flirt with .500. Tomorrow, the righty-killer gets Jon Garland in Cincy. That sound you hear is me licking my lips.

Josh Donaldson – $7,145

Another value play at the corners, Donaldson was one of the top 10 hitters in baseball in May. Yeah, he probably won’t keep the near-.600 SLG forever, but you can save a couple thousand on a top tier 3B play and allocate that money elsewhere. Of course, I’m pseudo-contradicting myself given the weather quip above, but I still think there’s enough value here to overcome the conditions.

Doug Fister – $13,129

I deftly drafted Fister all winter (we’re talking like 15th round!) and it’s paid huge dividends so far. Quite possibly baseball’s most under-the-radar top-10 WAR pitcher so far in 2013, Fister gets the Rays at home. Decent matchup and solid value. Nice combination to have out of your Draftstreet 1-A guy.

Joe Kelly – $7,184

Kelly gets the spot start in St. Louis. Owners may look at his 6.75 ERA and recoil in fear, but he’s actually been better peripherally than in 2012. Yes, his walk rate is up a hair but the punchouts are also up. He’s getting murdered by BABIP and HR/FB%, both of which are bound to come down. With a tasty matchup at home against Arizona, I’m buying him for the back end of my rotation and saving a couple dollars for my utility slot.

One for tomorrow

Dan Straily – $???

Seriously? How is Straily owned in only 18% of Yahoo! leagues? Just go pick him up if he’s available and stream him. Actually, don’t just stream him, keep him. And I’ll love him at  almost any price Thursday — he’s coming off back-to-back-to-back solid starts and will be up against the 2nd worst offense in the league.


Friday SPECIAL for FanGraphs Readers
Daily Fantasy is easy — you pick a lineup that’s good for one night only, and then you’re eligible to win cash. Draftstreet is running a contest this Friday, just for FanGraphs fans.

CLICK HERE to sign up now!

This contest will have GUARANTEED OVERLAY of at least $500 (extra money added to the pot courtesy of DraftStreet). The buy-in is $11 with $1,000 in prizes up for grabs, but there are only 50 spots available so hurry up and join now (maximum of 3 entries per user).

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs will maintain complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in our continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

7 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/5/13 – With a Special For Draftstreet”

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  1. El Brontolone says:

    Milwaukee has a retractable roof…

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  2. Paul J says:

    Wind blowing OUT in Houston as well?

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  3. thalooch says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    Even if both stadiums have their roof’s open doesnt the architecture of the stadium mitigate the wind factor since they aren’t really open air stadiums?

    I’ve never been to either, but watching games at both on TV it appears the field is contained with walls all around and that wind of 10-15mph would not have much effect. I could be wrong of course, I’m not expert on wind patterns, etc…

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    • Yes, this is a very good point. To my knowledge, no one has tried to tease out the answer to this question.

      There are also microclimate issues. The weather at O’Hare is not necessarily indicative of the weather at the Cell.

      Weather should be used as more of a tiebreaker or small nudge. I’m not suggesting to play JJ Hardy over Ryan Braun (pre-suspended Ryan Braun)

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  4. thalooch says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    I like the Joe Kelly pick as a value play, but when did the Diamondbacks become a tasty matchup? The White Sox, Marlins, Astros, Mets…..those are tasty matchups. Dbacks are middle of the road vs righties and they are rather low on the list as far as K% is concerned.

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  5. Madoff Withurmoni says:

    Night games only – Like the Fister pick. Had great May peripherals, on fire last 2 starts. Would look towards Gee and Haren with great matchup of 2 weak hitting teams as well.

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