Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/13 – For Draftstreet

The weather looks good for a full day of baseball today! Worst precipitation chances (outside of the domed Marlins Park) appear to be in Philly, Baltimore, and Atlanta, but coverage will be isolated at best. Low odds for a total washout.

Assuming it doesn’t rain in Baltimore, it appears they win the best hitter environment award, with high temperatures sitting in the upper-80′s (30-33 degrees for you Celsius kids out there) and a forecast wind out to left field somewhere between 10-15 mph. I like my right-handed hitting Blue Jays and Orioles today, especially guys who may be borderline in standard leagues (ex: teams that have J.J. Hardy as a backup shortstop, perhaps?).

The White Sox and Phillies play two today. This fact isn’t quite as important in Draftstreet where you don’t get credit for both games, but is important to those in standard fantasy leagues with daily lineups. Assuming standard 4×4 or 5×5 scoring, two games means players are essentially twice as valuable in non-rate-stat categories. Guys like Alejandro De Aza, Darin Ruf, and Ben Revere jump above many of your typical OF2/3 options for today. Make sure you get them in your lineups.

The Daily Five

Matt Adams – $7,456

With Matt Holliday limping around after a hammy injury a couple nights ago, Adams stands to see a couple more starts than his usual three or so per week. So far in 2013 he’s put up a sexy 155 wRC+ and his homer rate projects out to 32 HR/600 PA. He’s facing stout opposition in Matt Garza but will also have the friendly confines of Wrigley at his disposal. As long as he’s in the starting lineup, I’m moving him into open spots in all of my daily leagues.

Wilson Ramos – $7,199

Don’t look now, but Ramos has been en fuego since returning from the disabled list. Since missing 44 games and making his reappearance on the Fourth of July, Ramos has a .435/.458/.783. Mmm… delicious. He looks to be gaining a leg up on his time-split with Kurt Suzuki, so make sure he’s in the lineup, then pencil him in as a mid-tier catcher option with top-tier numbers the last few weeks.

Chris Davis – $10,017

Up until a few days ago, Davis was 3-for-36 to start the month of July. Correspondingly, his Fangraphs value fell. However, he’s homered in his last two games and finally put together a multi-hit effort yesterday. He’s going up against a right-hander (Todd Redmond) who is 28 and hasn’t put up a FIP below 3.50 at any level since 2006 (A-ball). Given the weather notes above, I’m buying the notoriously streaky Davis big today.

Randall Delgado – $10,226

Delgado has quietly put together a very nice season. Some pundits haven’t been too excited over his 3.82 ERA, but his xFIP is actually lower at 3.31. The reason? Suddenly, the former Braves farmhand has decided to be stingy with the free passes, owning only a 3% BB%. I’m willing to bet that regresses a bit, but his F-Strike% and Zone% are both up this year, so some of the improvement looks to be real. Save a couple bucks and run him out there today.

Dan Haren – $10,507

Haren is nowhere near the pitcher from his Arizona days, but he’s been getting a bit beat up on balls in play (.336 BABIP) and strand rate (66.7%). He’s coming off a solid start (5 IP, 7 K, 3.19 xFIP) upon his return from a short-term stint on the DL and will be getting one of the National League’s weaker offenses in the Marlins. Another nice “save a couple dollars” option.

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs will maintain complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in our continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

3 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/13 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. Kyle says:

    What do you think of Volquez as another value pick, considering he’s playing at home in Petco, the last few starts haven’t been too bad, and SF hasn’t been able to hit anything lately?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Volquez isn’t a terrible value option, either.

      My concern is that he’s alternated good/bad starts with regard to walks over the last month or so, something that is inherently risky in a daily league. He also has reverse splits with regards to his BB% at home (more walks at Petco).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Doug says:

    Am I missing something with Posey at 7,720? I know it’s San Diego, but this price seems way to good to pass up.

    Additionally, how do you like Lincecum today at 13k? I feel like this is fairly good value for a guy substantially underperforming his FIP and xFIP who is more than 9 k/9.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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