Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/30/13 – For Draftstreet

Ah, hot stove season! In less than 48 hours, the first of the two trade deadlines will have passed, and we’ll be looking at a few players in new places. As much as I love the deadline, it can also make for a rather frustrating couple of days for the daily fantasy player.

For example, here’s a piece from the Chicago Tribune detailing how Jake Peavy will be missing his start today, in favor of Andre Rienzo. Peavy, a hot name on the trade market this summer, may be traded today or tomorrow — he also may not. Regardless, Peavy will sit today, and Rienzo will start — despite what the names on your roster for your daily fantasy team tell you. And Peavy isn’t the only guy who might be missing a day today.

So today will be all about offering a few quick thoughts on players you should sit — or not worry about sitting — on the eve of the biggest baseball transaction day of the year. Hope it’s useful to you!

Jake Peavy: Sit — Peavy, as mentioned before, isn’t starting today. So sit him.

Ervin Santana: Sit — Rumors have been going back and forth regarding Ervin’s availability in trade, with the word being that the Royals are asking for a package comparable to the one that the Cubs received for Matt Garza. I don’t think there’s any hope they’d get that, but it could be a negotiating tactic, and the Royals would be well-served to deal him, so I’ll sit him to be cautious.

Bud Norris: Sit — The Astros are addicted to trading for prospects. I expect them to feed their addiction, and perhaps send Norris along to a quasi-contender.

Chase Utley: Play — Utley’s in a different boat from Santana, despite another GM who you can’t necessarily assign logic to. Utley, unlike Santana, has been a critical part of this franchise for almost a decade, and Chase is still a player who has a lot of value to his team. I’d bet the Phillies will have to be overwhelmed to deal him, and that seems kind of unlikely.

Hunter Pence: Play — This is an especially tough one, but I’m taking the risk. More on him below.

Bobby Parnell: Play — Well, I mean, don’t play Parnell if you’re playing Draftstreet, since relievers are a dicey situation … but I wouldn’t count on him leaving Queens just yet. The Mets are reportedly asking for the moon for the young fireballer, and he’s good and cost-controlled enough for them to keep.

In short, I’ll sit the starters whose names crop up in trade talks, and I’ll play most of the position players. I wouldn’t run Alexei Ramirez, Marlon Byrd, or Nate Schierholtz out there, but that’s more about their ability and less about their likelihood to move. Keep an eye on the news reports, and don’t let your team waste a slot today.

The Daily Five

Hunter Pence – $7,976

So, Pence has been dangling on the trading block leading up to the deadline, and there’s a small, but non-zero chance he could be dealt by the struggling Giants. However, I think his combo of youth and the potential to keep him around keeps him by the bay. If he does play today, he faces John Lannan in Philly, a lefty I expect to run screaming back to the mean any day now. Especially with the platoon advantage and the low cost, I like this play, despite the risk.

Matt Joyce – $6,959

Ian Kennedy has been awful this season. Matt Joyce has been his typical self. Sometimes, that’s all you need to make a play in a daily league.

Adam Lind – $6,827

A wise man only plays Adam Lind against right-handed pitching, and the Jays face righty Dan Straily today. So I’m going for it! Lind had a homer last night, he’s remarkably cheap, and he has the ability to boost your team’s score on one pitch. It’d be a much better situation if he were playing at home in Toronto, but I’ll take him today anyways.

Zack Wheeler – $13,930

This is a very risky play, as Wheeler has shown the ability to combust thanks to walks and loads of home runs. Well, it’s pretty tough to hit a ball out of Marlins Park, especially when the opposing offense is one that’s as sketchy as the one the Marlins run out there. When in doubt, I tend to roll with strikeouts, and Wheeler has certainly shown the ability to get those. I’ll take him on a day where many of the other options don’t excite me.

Nathan Eovaldi – $10,636

In a rare turn of events, I’m actually going to put my money down on both starters in the Miami-New York tilt. Eovaldi has actually thrown six quality starts in his seven appearances this season, and his season line is made much more ugly thanks to a rough outing in Milwaukee two weeks ago. Facing a largely punchless Mets lineup in the cavernous stadium in Miami, I see a pitchers’ duel coming today.

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest – $300 in cash prizes

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs will maintain complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in our continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Bryan values positional flexibilty and a good 12-6 curveball. He's the Lead Writer at Beyond the Box Score. Catch him on Twitter at @bgrosnick.

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