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Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/11 – For Draftstreet

You know how we pick on the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins a lot in this space? Basically, daily leagues allow you to “stream” starters against opponents every day, but instead of worrying about waiver availability we instead worry about prices. If a match-up is too obvious, it’s likely been factored into the price.

That’s why sometimes a safe match against the Marlins maybe isn’t worth it, because DraftStreet knows a match against the Marlins is safe. The same goes for the Astros, who hit a little better but strike out a bunch more.

I wanted to pull some data to see whether these match-ups are still “worth it” and if perhaps the public perception of the poor offenses has overshot the efficacy of facing them, so to speak.

sun avg sp pts by opponent
As you’ll notice, the Astros are above and beyond any other team in terms of average fantasy points surrendered to a pitcher. The Marlins are second, but the gap between them and the group containing the Padres, White Sox, Pirates and Mets isn’t that large. And then, of course, never ever start a pitcher against the Tigers.

The Daily Five
Martin Perez – $8,710
The Astros against lefties: 26.9% strikeout rate, .307 wOBA, 92 wRC+. Meanwhile, Perez has been slacking on the Ks since 2010 basically but has a swinging strike rate indicative of more whiff potential. The 3.81 ERA and 4.28 FIP are fine, too, so the only reason Perez is coming at a discount is an expectation of low strikeout totals. Hard to come by that against the Astros who have struck out less than five times just six times all season.

Jose Quintana – $12,101
Quintana has a bit more strikeout potential than Perez with even better ratios over a far larger sample. He draws the Twins, who are average against southpaws but strike out 22.7% of the time. He’s also getting a ton of value from his fastball, a pitch the Twins are just average against.

Jay Bruce – $7,677
The Great American Band Box with a wind blowing out (lightly) is an enticing proposition, especially against fly-baller Ian Kennedy. Jay Bruce has been a HR/FB machine, as usual, but his fly ball rate is down a bit for the year in favor of more line drives. If Bruce can get some lift today, something Kennedy is probably willing to help with, his track record suggests there’s a one-in-five chance it gets out.

Michael Bourn – $8,073
It’s not a bargain, but Bourn is in a great situation to run against the league’s worst team at preventing the steal. I’m not a believer in his current reverse-splits, either, as it’s something new to his profile. Oh, and Jerome Williams is very kind to left-handed hitters.

Dexter Fowler – $6,551
Jeff Locke has been outperforming his peripherals to such an extreme degree, we’re all just sitting on regression. Coors Field tends to provide that for pitchers, and I don’t think for a second that Locke has actually learned how to supress HR/FB. Fowler has a .383 wOBA against lefties and a .382 mark at Coors, yet somehow comes at a discount.

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