Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/21/13 – For Draftstreet

Anyone who reads this space regularly knows I love exploiting platoon splits in daily pools more than Kel loves orange soda. So today I’m taking a crack at trying to find guys among today’s probable pitchers with big platoon splits in 2013. This could help your roster management in a couple ways. Should you play that platoon-heavy (Matt Joyce?) guy against today’s pitcher? (the answer is no). You could also ask questions like “should you really run out that guy with a .400 wOBA against lefties against righty-mashers like the Red Sox?” (also no).

The below list is sorted by LHH-RHH wOBA difference. Guys at the top of the list are knocked around by lefties more than righties while guys at the bottom suffer the opposite fate. Guys in the middle (with near .000 difference) have been relatively platoon independent this year. Cliff Lee gets batters out indiscriminately.

Some notes: sample size caveats apply some guys, since Rienzo, Arrieta, and Ohlendorf are all under 100 lefty/righty batters faced. Justin Masterson is up there as a righty-killer/lefty-eh but perhaps not as high as you’d think. We know Jake Westbrook‘s negative K%-BB% isn’t doing him any good, but it doesn’t help he gets raked by left-handed hitters. The list is top-heavy, meaning more rights have trouble with lefties than vice-versa (expected), but we still have a trio of lefties in Ohlendorf, Iwakuma, and Chen who have moderate splits.

Name Team vs. RHH wOBA vs. RHH K% vs. RHH BB% vs. LHH wOBA vs. LHH K% vs. LHH BB% DELTA wOBA
Adam Warren Yankees 0.276 21% 8% 0.400 16% 10% -0.124
Jake Westbrook Cardinals 0.279 11% 9% 0.394 7% 11% -0.115
Jeremy Guthrie Royals 0.279 14% 7% 0.387 12% 8% -0.108
Zack Greinke Dodgers 0.256 18% 6% 0.363 19% 9% -0.107
Justin Masterson Indians 0.243 32% 7% 0.313 19% 10% -0.070
R.A. Dickey Blue Jays 0.300 19% 7% 0.355 17% 9% -0.055
Anibal Sanchez Tigers 0.239 28% 6% 0.293 25% 8% -0.054
Barry Zito Giants 0.366 14% 9% 0.411 17% 11% -0.045
Jerome Williams Angels 0.318 16% 7% 0.360 14% 9% -0.042
Kevin Correia Twins 0.336 13% 5% 0.377 13% 7% -0.041
Ian Kennedy Padres 0.329 19% 10% 0.361 20% 9% -0.032
Erik Bedard Astros 0.339 22% 12% 0.357 18% 10% -0.018
Gerrit Cole Pirates 0.280 19% 6% 0.297 16% 6% -0.017
Jeremy Hellickson Rays 0.324 18% 7% 0.334 19% 5% -0.010
Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 0.278 23% 8% 0.280 24% 11% -0.002
Cliff Lee Phillies 0.281 26% 4% 0.280 16% 6% 0.001
Mike Leake Reds 0.311 16% 7% 0.306 13% 6% 0.005
Jake Arrieta Cubs 0.323 24% 9% 0.317 17% 18% 0.006
Juan Nicasio Rockies 0.335 14% 5% 0.325 18% 13% 0.010
A.J. Griffin Athletics 0.309 19% 5% 0.295 18% 8% 0.014
Jon Niese Mets 0.343 16% 9% 0.327 15% 9% 0.016
Alex Wood Braves 0.249 23% 6% 0.231 39% 8% 0.018
Felix Doubront Red Sox 0.328 20% 10% 0.309 24% 9% 0.019
Derek Holland Rangers 0.302 22% 7% 0.275 26% 6% 0.027
Brandon McCarthy Diamondbacks 0.361 10% 4% 0.326 18% 6% 0.035
Nathan Eovaldi Marlins 0.320 19% 8% 0.282 13% 13% 0.038
Ross Ohlendorf Nationals 0.271 22% 6% 0.232 20% 8% 0.039
Wei-Yin Chen Orioles 0.302 15% 6% 0.262 19% 6% 0.040
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 0.304 21% 5% 0.254 22% 5% 0.050
Andre Rienzo White Sox 0.363 18% 15% 0.287 14% 9% 0.076

Like last week, here is all of today’s probable starters in patented (maybe not) Fangraphs sortable leaderboard style for your personal perusal.

The Daily Five

Scooter Gennett – $8,060

Who loves crushing righties? Scooter Gennett loves crushing righties. Is it true? I mentioned Westbrook’s lefty issues before and Gennett (albeit in a small sample) has done nothing by rake (especially righties) the last few weeks. His cost isn’t quite the bargain I thought it might be, but I’m still rolling the dice on him being an elite option.

Ike Davis – $5,863

EDIT: Davis is not in the starting lineup today.

Davis comes relatively cheap at this price point, allowing you to use him at first or in a utility slot if you need to make room/save cash. Fellow Rotographer Chris Cwik broke down Davis a week ago, and while the power appears to have (hopefully temporarily) disappeared, he’s not the black hole he was at the beginning of the year.

Adrian Beltre – $8,608

Beltre strikes me as a nice value play, which is tough at a price point north of $8k. First, he’s getting Erik Bedard of 4.55 xFIP in Arlington. If that wasn’t enough, Beltre has been hitting balls hard lately, with increases in LD% and HR/FB% of the last couple of months.

Zack Greinke – $17.429

Yes, the Marlins look like slightly less of a Quad-A team these days. However, as seen above, Grienke’s Achilles’ heel has been teams stacked with lefties who can hit. The Marlins aren’t and kind of can’t.

Felix Doubront – $10,938

Doubront has struggled a bit in his last few outings which has brought his Draftstreet cost down commensurately. However, his velocity remains fine and he’s facing a Giants team that has only scratched a single run across against Red Sox starters the last two nights. With John Farrell not using Koji Uehara in the highest of high-leverage situations last night (closer rules, FTW!) you have a nice bullpen option behind him, too!

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There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

6 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/21/13 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. Mister says:

    Huh, so Dickey kills RHH. I guess I should start him when he matches up against the Blue Jays! Oh wait….

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  2. fivehead says:

    No Ike today against Wood the lefty.

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  3. Woody Barrelson says:

    But what’s his ERA vs lefties?

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  4. thalooch says:

    Ike is unusable vs LHP. I think 2 or even 3 year samples would be more appropriate for these splits. Even at this late stage of the year don’t we still need more batter’s faced for certain stabilization rates?

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  5. evo34 says:

    One season of L/R splits is nowhere near enough to be predictive.

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