There are a few nuances in the DraftStreet scoring system that are worth remembering when setting a lineup – “best hitter” isn’t always the same as “best fantasy pick” for several reasons.
That is, you can’t just look at, say, OPS to gauge a player’s daily value. Instead, things like strikeouts (bad), stolen bases (good) and how they get their slugging points all have a major impact. If we compare the list of top OPS earners to the list of top DraftStreet earners, a few things stand out.
|Player||OPS||Pts/G||OPS Rank||DS Rank|
That table shows the top 10 gainers and losers when you switch from OPS to daily points per game. Immediately you can see that it’s speedsters that get a boost since stolen bases are big for fantasy but don’t factor in to OPS. Most of these “gainers” are also low-strikeout players, too. At the bottom, it’s pretty clear that avoiding strikeouts matters a great deal to maximizing value.
Nothing ground-breaking here, but worth a reminder of what goes into fantasy value that doesn’t necessarily get captured when we think “best hitter.”
The Daily Five
Mark Buehrle – $11,565
Set it and forget it, just don’t watch this game. Buehrle’s been really solid for a while now and even struck out nine Astros the last time they squared off. There aren’t many pitcher bargains today, needless to say.
Rick Porcello – $9,887
The Mets have a 22% strikeout rate and a .300 wOBA against right-handers, while Porcello has vastly outpitched his ERA and is thus a bit underpriced. Porcello also sets up well for a win, in as much as you can chase wins in daily leagues. I know it’s four seasons in a row with that same ERA-FIP gap but I’m still somewhat of a believer that Porcello is a plus starter.
Mark DeRosa – $6,364
There’s a major wind blowing out to left field, giving right-handed Jays an added boost against Dallas Keuchel, who isn’t very good to begin with. Odd as it may seem to take DeRosa, he has a 116 wRC+ against lefties and has killed them for the last few years save for 2012. Brett Lawrie, Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis are all sitting there as well, though you’re paying a bit more of n expectant price.
Billy Butler -$5,700
Over the past two seasons, Dan Haren has given up a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I don’t think he’s nearly that bad, but he’s also given up an above-average HR/FB rate in four of the past five years, and now his groundball rate has fallen below 40% two straight years (34% right now). Those factors, combined with a 12MPH wind blowing out to left field, make him a nice match-up for the Royals. So I’ve tabbed my arch nemesis, Butler, and I’m not happy about it.
Asdrubal Cabrera – $6,219
Big Pelf on the bump. That’s gotta be a slumpbuster, right? Cabrera is better than this.
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