Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/26/13 – For Draftstreet

Most of the time when I’m picking a daily lineup, I make a custom leaderboard of the starting pitchers for the day to see which starters are most homer-prone. But this can be a tedious task to do day after day. So I’ve created the chart you see below which shows the most homer prone starting pitchers. I had a post a few months ago where I had charts showing hitters with reverse splits and the splits of switch hitters that I still reference often. Hopefully this post will be a similar bookmark worthy tool.

There are three columns. One for starters that are currently in a major league rotation with at least 1320 career batters faced (which is the point at which HR stabilizes) against batters of any handedness . The players listed have a HR rate against all batters that is two or more standard deviations above the mean. And then there is a chart for starters with 1320+ BF against lefties and against righties. The players listed in those charts have a HR rate against batters of that particular handedness that is one or more standard deviations above the mean.

HR per BF

The Daily Five

Brett Lawrie, $7,052 – As you’ll see below, I picked a good day to talk about the most homer prone pitchers because a few of them are pitching today. Lawrie will face Hughes who actually allows homers at a higher rate to right-handed hitters despite being a right-hander himself. That probably helped keep Lawrie’s cost down today given that the Draftstreet pricing model usually gives quite a bit of credence to the platoon advantage.

Curtis Granderson, $7,694 – It should be noted that Dickey’s inclusion on the list above is largely due to his performance pre-knuckleball mastery. However, he is once again having home run problems against lefties like he did earlier in his career. So Granderson and even Lyle Overbay ($6,232) are candidates to go deep today.

Jon Jay, $7,356 – Jay is on a little hot streak thanks to a high BABIP and high HR/FB rate. He’ll cool at some point, but he’s a good option for now whenever he’s facing a right-hander. And since Mike Leake is on the list above and also right-handed, Jay is a good option today.

Jeff Baker, $7,789 – Baker is just destroying left-handed pitching this year. He’s got ten homers in just 88 PA versus southpaws, which has him 2nd in wRC+ vs. LHP (min. 70 PA). He’ll face homer prone Joe Saunders today. Adam Rosales ($3,790) is also a good cheap option if the Rangers continue to put him in the lineup when facing a lefty.

Brandon McCarthy, $6,723 – Since I recommended quite a few hitters at slightly above average prices, I figured I ought to recommend a cheap starter to offset that somewhat. I know McCarthy has been brutal this year and got roughed up last time out, but he’s the fourth cheapest pitcher of the day and has a good matchup against the Padres who are much better against left-handed pitching than right. It’s a risk, but it’s one I’ll be taking in order to spend on some hitters I like. If you take McCarthy, you should have the money to buy an elite starter and someone from the mid-range group (Dickey, Griffin, Leake, Rienzo).

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest – $1,000 in cash prizes

Daily Fantasy is easy — you pick a lineup that’s good for one night only, and then you’re eligible to win cash. FanGraphs readers are hereby invited to enter a FREE week one NFL competition with $1,000 in prizes.

CLICK HERE to sign up now!

This free contest will be Pick ‘em style drafting. The way Pick ‘Em leagues work is you have eight tiers of players and each tier will have players to choose from. You select one player from each tier. Nothing to lose and it takes five minutes to build a team. You can adjust your roster up until the contest starts when the NFL regular season starts, at which time your rosters will lock and the Live Scoreboard will be available.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs will maintain complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in our continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




Print This Post

You can find more of Brett's work, including his podcast, on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.

2 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/26/13 – For Draftstreet”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Reddickulous says:

    Oy vey, any hope at all for Griffin against (and IN) Detroit today?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *