Most of the time when I’m picking a daily lineup, I make a custom leaderboard of the starting pitchers for the day to see which starters are most homer-prone. But this can be a tedious task to do day after day. So I’ve created the chart you see below which shows the most homer prone starting pitchers. I had a post a few months ago where I had charts showing hitters with reverse splits and the splits of switch hitters that I still reference often. Hopefully this post will be a similar bookmark worthy tool.
There are three columns. One for starters that are currently in a major league rotation with at least 1320 career batters faced (which is the point at which HR stabilizes) against batters of any handedness . The players listed have a HR rate against all batters that is two or more standard deviations above the mean. And then there is a chart for starters with 1320+ BF against lefties and against righties. The players listed in those charts have a HR rate against batters of that particular handedness that is one or more standard deviations above the mean.
The Daily Five
Brett Lawrie, $7,052 – As you’ll see below, I picked a good day to talk about the most homer prone pitchers because a few of them are pitching today. Lawrie will face Hughes who actually allows homers at a higher rate to right-handed hitters despite being a right-hander himself. That probably helped keep Lawrie’s cost down today given that the Draftstreet pricing model usually gives quite a bit of credence to the platoon advantage.
Curtis Granderson, $7,694 – It should be noted that Dickey’s inclusion on the list above is largely due to his performance pre-knuckleball mastery. However, he is once again having home run problems against lefties like he did earlier in his career. So Granderson and even Lyle Overbay ($6,232) are candidates to go deep today.
Jon Jay, $7,356 – Jay is on a little hot streak thanks to a high BABIP and high HR/FB rate. He’ll cool at some point, but he’s a good option for now whenever he’s facing a right-hander. And since Mike Leake is on the list above and also right-handed, Jay is a good option today.
Jeff Baker, $7,789 – Baker is just destroying left-handed pitching this year. He’s got ten homers in just 88 PA versus southpaws, which has him 2nd in wRC+ vs. LHP (min. 70 PA). He’ll face homer prone Joe Saunders today. Adam Rosales ($3,790) is also a good cheap option if the Rangers continue to put him in the lineup when facing a lefty.
Brandon McCarthy, $6,723 – Since I recommended quite a few hitters at slightly above average prices, I figured I ought to recommend a cheap starter to offset that somewhat. I know McCarthy has been brutal this year and got roughed up last time out, but he’s the fourth cheapest pitcher of the day and has a good matchup against the Padres who are much better against left-handed pitching than right. It’s a risk, but it’s one I’ll be taking in order to spend on some hitters I like. If you take McCarthy, you should have the money to buy an elite starter and someone from the mid-range group (Dickey, Griffin, Leake, Rienzo).
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