Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/11 – For Draftstreet

Have you had a really bad beat in daily fantasy this year? I’m sure you have – ace pitcher at a decent price or a mid-level pitcher at a bargain with a strong set-up, only they end up getting lit up. Or maybe you nail an opposing pitcher breakdown and just happen to grab the wrong player from the team while everyone else goes bananas.

These happen, plenty. I’m interested to hear the most costly ones, though. These are time when you were within X points of finishing in Y place but Z happened.

I’m not convinced it’s interesting enough yet, but if there are a few comically bad beats, I’ll spin them into the preamble over the weekend.

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The Daily Five
Brandon Maurer – $4,859
We’ll start it off with a case of “this price is too low not to roll the dice” since Maurer checks in at a cost just above reliever status. Yes, his 6.85 ERA is unsightly, but he was striking out a batter an inning in Triple-A while limiting homers (in the PCL, no less). There’s a reason some people pegged him as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate, and the Astros, who have the league’s top strikeout rate and third worst wOBA against righties, are fixing to remind us of that reason.

Eric Stults – $8,204
The Phillies have just a .294 wOBA against southpaws and strike out over 20 percent of the time. Stults, meanwhile, has a 3.53 FIP backing up his 4.07 ERA despite not striking many batters out. While his HR/FB rate is due for some correction (and boy did the Giants help out with that in his last turn), his other indicators point to a decent back-end pitcher at a pretty cheap price.

Jed Lowrie – $7,855
Lowrie faces off with Big Pelf in Minnesota, which should be a treat for the Athletics. For Jed’s part, he’s got a .339 wOBA against righties and slugs a tidy .441 (.160 ISO) against them. It’s hard to say much more other than that I don’t believe in Pelfrey, even with his velocity trending back upwards.

Justin Smoak – $5,518
This price is a bit curious. While Smoak, a switch hitter, hasn’t been excellent overall, he’s absolutely crushed right-handed pitching. Smoak sports a .385 wOBA against them and a top-tier .224 ISO, with 16 home runs kicking in towards those rates. He draws Brad Peacock, who is nothing special by any means and struggles to keep the ball in the park.

Yadier Molina – $7,094
Molina has been a bit cold in September after returning hot from the DL in August. For the season, his .354 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is strong. While Estrada piles up strikeouts and limits walks, he’s also quite susceptible to the long ball; that’s not a major part of Molina’s game but it’s present enough that, with his low floor, Molina is a smart buy.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

One Response to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/11 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. thalooch says:

    I’ve had some bad beats but i play too often to recall them. Oh no wait, I just remembered one, but only because someone pointed it out to me on twitter. In a qualifier for a $200 ticket I got 2nd because someone took Chris Nelson who hit 2 bombs including a grand slam in yankees stadium that day…..yeah Chris bleeping Nelson.

    Maurer is nothing more than a GPP play. As a starter he’s been horrible and as a reliever he’s been horrible. He’s more likely to give you negative points than positive points, even at that price. The upgrade in hitting is often not worth the risk in rostering a terrible pitcher even with a plus matchup (see: Joe Saunders / Miguel Cabrera last night).

    I’d rather roster a few Astros hitters who are always low-priced (and for good reason) and spend more on pitchers like Sanchez, Minor, Fernandez

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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