Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/16/13 – For Draftstreet

I did this on Monday as well, but below you’ll find a chart showing how today’s probable starters have fared against hitters of each handedness this year. This chart is something I create in the leaderboard section of the site, and it’s extremely helpful when picking hitters for the day. Unfortunately, the list must be created manually as there isn’t a filter for the day’s probable starters. Because inputting all the names takes a little time, I figure I’ll just do that work for you. After the jump we’ll use the chart to pick some hitters for the day. And we’ll pick a couple of starters, too.

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9-16

The Daily Five

Chris Johnson, $6,478 – Reverse splits! For his career, Johnson, a right-hander, has a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching compared to a 99 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. And He’ll be facing Dan Haren, a right-hander, whose wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters is 13 points higher than it is to left-handed hitters. And Haren’s HR/9 against right-handers this year is 1.69 compared to 1.39 against left-handers. The Draftstreet pricing model tends to be more favorable to hitters with the platoon advantage, but with Johnson having a fairly low price attached to him today, you have to assume that the pricing model doesn’t know that Johnson and Haren have reverse splits.

Brandon Phillips, $6,727 – This is a strange price. Phillips will have the platoon advantage against Erik Bedard who has a 1.31 HR/9 against right-handers this year. The game is in Houston which was the 7th most homer friendly park to right-handed hitters last year. It wouldn’t be a shock if Phillips got his 19th homer of the year tonight.

Anthony Rizzo, $6,589 – Rizzo has had a disappointing year as he’s only hitting .230 and has a .748 OPS. But it’s not all bad. He’s increased his walk rate from 7.3% to 11.5%, and his average is being depressed somewhat by a .252 BABIP. Unsurprisingly, his struggles have mainly come when facing left-handers against whom he has only produced a 69 wRC+. But he’s been OK against right-handers, and he’ll face one tonight. He’ll be facing Wily Peralta who struggles against left-handers, and he’ll be facing him in Milwaukee which was the third most homer friendly park to left-handed hitters last year.

Cliff Lee, $19,585 – I like to spend on pitching, but I usually like to avoid spending too much on pitching, which means I’m wary of any starter that costs $16,000 or more. But this just seems like very, very safe money. Lee has been great on the year and spectacular recently. And of course the matchup is great against the Marlins.

Edwin Jackson, $9,743 – Since I recommended the most expensive pitcher, I’ll give you a cheap option so you have at least a decent amount of money to spend on the rest of your lineup. Jackson has been up and down all year, but he’s been decent in his last three starts, and the two of those starts where he was the best were against good competition in Cincinnati and Los Angeles. Today the competition will be a little lighter when he faces the Brewers who are slightly below average against right-handed pitching.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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You can find more of Brett's work, including his podcast, on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.


One Response to “Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/16/13 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. El Brontolone says:

    ATL/WAS ppd.

    Now you can take Miguel Cabrera like you always wanted.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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