Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 21 — For Draftstreet

Yesterday in this space, we outlined some of the hitters who gain the most and the least in the switch from DraftStreet scoring to DraftKings scoring, where strikeouts no longer hurt a hitter.

If you haven’t yet, by the way, you can transfer your account here.

For pitchers, things change far less, though there are a few points worth noting. For one, relievers are out – saves and blown saves don’t do anything, and you only have two pitcher spots to work with. For another, strikeouts are slightly more valuable now relative to other stats, gaining 186 percent in value compared to 150 percent for innings pitched and 140 percent for hits and walks allowed. A final note is that losses no longer cost you anything, so pitchers on bad teams with strong matchups can be dialled up with less hesitation.

Like we did on the hitter side, here is a table of the largest and smallest relative gainers in the new format, among qualified starters:

Name Team GS IP SO L DS Pts/GS DK Pts/GS Gain
Eric Stults Padres 19 99.333 59 11 2.59 8.21 316.87%
Kevin Correia Twins 19 109.333 50 11 2.67 8.32 311.95%
Edwin Jackson Cubs 20 110.667 100 10 3.69 11.27 305.21%
Ricky Nolasco Twins 18 103.667 72 7 3.00 9.05 302.04%
Travis Wood Cubs 20 116 92 9 3.87 11.56 299.09%
Roberto Hernandez Phillies 17 98.333 67 8 3.70 11.05 298.65%
Justin Masterson Indians 19 98 93 6 3.50 10.46 298.57%
Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles 18 99.667 88 8 4.07 12.15 298.29%
Shelby Miller Cardinals 19 109 73 8 3.96 11.74 296.61%
Kyle Kendrick Phillies 19 120.667 76 9 3.82 11.30 295.93%
Brandon McCarthy - – - 20 122.333 105 10 4.63 13.69 295.73%
Jake Peavy Red Sox 19 117.667 93 8 4.17 12.28 294.45%
Jeremy Guthrie Royals 19 120.333 75 8 3.87 11.34 293.07%
Zack Wheeler Mets 19 108.333 105 8 5.29 15.48 292.69%
Roenis Elias Mariners 19 113 96 8 4.96 14.49 292.35%
Kyle Lohse Brewers 20 134 98 4 6.44 17.84 277.16%
Sonny Gray Athletics 19 125.667 108 3 7.10 19.68 277.10%
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 18 129.333 135 4 9.37 25.96 277.02%
Jason Vargas Royals 19 125 82 4 5.51 15.26 276.97%
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 15 103.667 83 4 7.28 20.10 276.18%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 19 138 115 4 8.91 24.58 276.00%
Alfredo Simon Reds 19 121.667 79 4 6.21 17.06 274.59%
Scott Kazmir Athletics 19 117.333 108 3 7.55 20.69 274.03%
Garrett Richards Angels 20 131.333 134 2 8.22 22.51 273.74%
Felix Hernandez Mariners 21 151.333 163 2 9.76 26.62 272.67%

And here are the top-25 starters by DraftKings points per start:

Name Team GS IP SO L DS Pts/GS DK Pts/GS Gain
Felix Hernandez Mariners 21 151.333 163 2 9.76 26.62 272.67%
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 18 129.333 135 4 9.37 25.96 277.02%
David Price Rays 21 155.667 173 7 9.12 25.48 279.47%
Johnny Cueto Reds 20 143.667 141 6 9.10 25.41 279.20%
Yu Darvish Rangers 18 122 154 5 8.98 25.31 281.87%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 19 138 115 4 8.91 24.58 276.00%
Max Scherzer Tigers 20 132 150 3 8.10 22.57 278.56%
Jon Lester Red Sox 19 129 134 7 8.01 22.54 281.47%
Garrett Richards Angels 20 131.333 134 2 8.22 22.51 273.74%
Corey Kluber Indians 21 140.333 152 6 7.96 22.30 280.05%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 21 132 158 7 7.35 20.86 283.68%
Julio Teheran Braves 20 136.333 116 6 7.39 20.79 281.10%
Scott Kazmir Athletics 19 117.333 108 3 7.55 20.69 274.03%
Zack Greinke Dodgers 20 124.333 130 6 7.34 20.63 280.84%
Cole Hamels Phillies 17 114.333 115 5 7.30 20.50 280.67%
Tyson Ross Padres 21 136.667 132 10 7.10 20.39 287.03%
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 15 103.667 83 4 7.28 20.10 276.18%
Madison Bumgarner Giants 21 133 135 7 7.00 19.76 282.37%
Sonny Gray Athletics 19 125.667 108 3 7.10 19.68 277.10%
Josh Beckett Dodgers 17 103.667 95 5 6.99 19.63 280.85%
Ian Kennedy Padres 21 129.333 137 9 6.51 18.69 286.84%
Jeff Samardzija - – - 20 130 117 8 6.40 18.17 284.13%
Jason Hammel - – - 19 115.667 109 7 6.40 18.13 283.15%
Lance Lynn Cardinals 20 120.667 110 6 6.34 18.00 283.72%
John Lackey Red Sox 19 123.333 109 6 6.37 17.95 281.70%

The Daily Five
Wily Peralta – $6,700
Why no, Peralta isn’t normally a daily stud, thanks to a K-per-9 under seven, some home run trouble and a middling 4.11 FIP. On Monday, however, he’ll draw the Cincinnati Reds, without Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. Even with those players in the lineup, the Reds were only a middle-of-the-pack team against right-handed pitchers. The Reds scored six runs over three games this weekend. Factor in Peralta’s appreciable ground ball rate, which makes the home runs less of an issue, and a bottom-10 price is worth the plunge.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – $9,100
Of course you want Chris Sale at $12,100 against the Royals, but for $3K cheaper you can grab Ryu, with an even more favorable matchup. The Dodgers’ southpaw draws the Pirates, owners of the league’s third-worst offense against left-handed pitching and with a top-10 strikeout rate to push the ceiling higher. Ryu’s terrible outing against the Tigers on July 8 may still stick out, but that was the only time in his last six turns he’s given up more than three runs, with 35 strikeouts to just five walks in that stretch. This should be a safe one, but a safe one with upside.

Nationals stack – How I doubt thee, Franklin Morales, let me count the ways. You don’t strike anybody out. You don’t keep the ball down. You also don’t keep it in the park. You have a 5.26 ERA that peripherals suggest has either been lucky (5.80 FIP) or unlucky but you’re still bad (4.49 xFIP), the former of which is true considering you’re playing at Coors Field. We’re not friends, I’m not a fan, now please line my pockets.
Jayson Werth – $5,000 (how is any good player at Coors not even a top-10 priced OF on the day?)
Bryce Harper – $4,700 (still believing, even lefty-on-lefty)
Anthony Rendon – $4,600 (he hits a lot of balls in the air)
Scott Hairston – $2,400 (obviously check the lineups, which I can’t do writing late Sunday, but Hairston has always been a high-FB hitter who does well against lefties)

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of DraftKings. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.


One Response to “Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 21 — For Draftstreet”

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  1. dudekid says:

    Wilson ramos may be a good option too, .312 career against lefties, hes been heating up

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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