Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 1 — For Draftstreet

Oh, hi. Happy Sunday. I hope today finds you well and the week in daily fantasy has been a profitable one. Unless we played heads-up at any point, in which case I hope you’re miserable and broke. But let’s be friends today, it’s better.

Often in this space, we’ll reference a team’s hitting performance against a handedness of pitcher – the Braves can’t hit righties and strike out a lot, for example. That’s obviously useful and something you can find easily here on Fangraphs in the sortable leaderboards. What’s also helpful, though less readily available, is looking at how that translates to fantasy points for opposing pitchers.
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Now, this analysis won’t be perfect because teams can use bullpens (shocking) and a team won’t face a certain handed pitcher all game. I could pull game logs, cross-reference the starters, and find “fantasy points when a LHP/RHP starts,” which would have slightly more value. Maybe next week. Today, I’ve taken each team’s season batting line against each handedness and translated it into “fantasy points per 38 plate appearances,” the average number a team gets in a game. They also exclude baserunning, as SB/CS splits by pitcher handedness don’t exist here. Here are the results:
The Daily Five
Nathan Eovaldi – $17,459
Seem expensive for Eovaldi? Maybe a bit, though he’s only the ninth most expensive starter on the books, but consider the image above – the Braves’ hitters average fewer fantasy points against righties than any team against any handedness of pitcher. Eovaldi mixes an appreciable strikeout rate, low walk rate and improving ground ball rate to offer a high floor, while the Braves – to whom he’s allowed just one earned run in 13 innings this year, with 12 strikeouts – provide the ceiling.

Wade Miley – $12,777
Is Cyrus a risky play at home in Arizona? Perhaps. But he’s also a lefty facing the Reds, who happen to be the league’s worst offense against southpaws, boasting a 22.9 percent strikeout rate with a .280 wOBA and the second-worst walk rate in baseball. The Reds have also scored more than three runs just once in their past seven games and reached five just twice in their past 15. The last time they scored more than three runs when a lefty started? Try April 21.

White Sox stack – Eric Sults is friendly to righties, has had next to no success outside of Petco Park and draws The Cell on Sunday, while just a single Sox hitter checks in above $6,500.
Gordon Beckham – $6,013 or Marcus Semien – $4,845
Dayan Viciedo – $6,272
Alexei Ramirez – $7,278

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

2 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 1 — For Draftstreet”

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  1. mat says:

    In double up leagues, do you think it’s more beneficial to go 3 SP or go with 2 top SP and a closer who has a decent chance of getting in the game?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Blake Murphy says:

      3 starters still. There are certain times, especially on thinner schedule days, where 2SP+RP may make sense, especially if you can reliably predict someone getting in (e.g. team is heavy favorite, hasn’t pitched in a while), because the $/pts is right, but in general terms the risk of a 0 runs counter to having the highest floor possible.

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