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Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 15 — For Draftstreet

Happy Sunday, and happy father’s day, if you happen to be one of those. If not, well, way to play safe.

There are no off days for any MLB dads today, as we’ve got a full 15-game slate, with 10 of those starting at 2:15 of earlier. That means when rosters lock around 1:05, you should have a large enough pool of will-play players to avoid the risk of surprise off days. Sundays are great for that (although, as always, I have to write this well before that point, so be sure to check the recommendations are suiting up).

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Today’s research is kind of just meant to confirm what we already know – as temperature’s rise, so does offense. With mid-June now here, temperature’s are rising and….well, we’re using some arbitrary endpoints, but offense doesn’t appear to be climbing across the league. Have a look:

Segment Avg Temp R/gm HR/gm
To April 15 62.43 4.25 0.97
April 16-30 62.50 4.17 0.81
May 1-15 68.24 4.16 0.95
May 16-31 72.36 4.09 0.90
June 1-14 73.20 4.07 0.88

Do with that what you will, but it may serve as an indication that the 2014 offense decline (.251/.316/.390, down across the board from 2013, which was down from 2010-2012) isn’t solely a function of the normal early-season offense suppression. Of course, it’s going to get hotter, so we may just be slicing this up too early.

The Daily Five
Brad Peacock – $13,108
I’m going to be completely honest – the pitching market is garbage today. There may end up being solid final lines, but anyone with a strong match-up is priced prohibitively. There are two responses to that – pay the price and short on hitters, or roll the dice on risky options and spend big on hitters elsewhere. I tend to lean toward the latter, myself. Peacock has been on fire of late and while the walks make him risky, the strikeouts are enticing and the Rays have been a bottom-three offense over the last month.

Jesse Chavez – $15,110
Chavez has cooled some of late after a hot start, but I don’t necessarily think he’s regressed to being un-startable. The Yankees aren’t too dangerous a team in general, but what’s more is that they’re one of the worst teams in baseball against good cutters, the pitch Chavez has leveraged to a great degree of success. Like I said, it’s a tough pitching day.

Tigers stackRicky Nolasco pitches to contact, his line drives allowed are above 20 percent and his fly ball rate is up. That can be a tough mix at Comerica against a Tigers team that has a few righty-mashers.
Torii Hunter – $6,114
J.D. Martinez – $4,953
Alex Avila – $3,450
Victor Martinez – $8,398 or Miguel Cabrera – $9,659 (you can probably only afford one)

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